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Friday, November 23, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (III)

Next update: November / December 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.


Argentina - Brazil 2 - 1, Brazil won after PSO. In light of the Uganda - Zambia match, I gave Argentina 3 points and Brazil 0 points, since the Superclásico de las Américas was played over two legs.

Five competitions left: 2012 CECAFA Cup, 2012 AFF Suzuki Cup (group stage and semifinals), 2012 Caribbean Cup and 2012 WAFF Championship (group stage only) and the qualifiers for the 2013 EAFF Cup. 'Tis the season to be busy! :)

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.



Couple of things will happen (not depending on probable results):
  • The top 21 teams are already set.
  • Ecuador, Mali, Montserrat and Timor-Leste will improve their best ever ranking.
  • Côte d'Ivoire will return to their best ever ranking.
  • Brazil and Sri Lanka will fall to new lows.
Based on these probable results, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam, Sao Tome e Principe and South Sudan will climb 15 or more places, while Belize, Dominican Republic, Bermuda, Chad, Afghanistan, Korea DPR, Lebanon, Wales, Curacao and American Samoa will drop 15 or more spots.

Probable December 2012 rank - Team - Probable December 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
 
1 Spain 1606 0 42
2 Germany 1437 0 16
3 Argentina 1290 0 -59
4 Italy 1165 1 -4
5 Colombia 1164 3 54
6 England 1151 0 -16
7 Portugal 1144 -3 -34
8 Netherlands 1124 -1 -4
9 Russia 1070 0 -14
10 Croatia 1064 0 -14
11 Greece 1033 1 29
12 Switzerland 1004 4 38
13 Ecuador 999 4 48
14 Côte d'Ivoire 995 1 21
15 Mexico 994 -1 10
16 Uruguay 975 -5 -72
17 France 949 1 11
18 Brazil 946 -5 -48
19 Algeria 887 0 -20
20 Sweden 870 3 44
21 Belgium 868 -1 -13
22 Japan 840 2 30
23 Denmark 821 -1 -30
24 Norway 810 2 32
25 Mali 809 3 37
26 Chile 793 -5 -60
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 788 4 42
28 USA 782 -1 6
29 Czech Republic 781 -4 -25
30 Ghana 777 -1 15
31 Montenegro 756 3 65
32 Hungary 750 -2 -3
33 Romania 700 4 31
34 Zambia 697 5 64
35 Korea Republic 686 -3 -42
36 Australia 683 -3 -36
37 Paraguay 666 -2 -24
38 Serbia 659 4 33
39 Jamaica 645 11 59
40 Turkey 627 -2 -12
41 Slovenia 617 8 24
42 Egypt 615 -2 -12
43 Bolivia 609 8 24
43 Gabon 609 9 28
43 Republic of Ireland 609 -7 -73
46 Haiti 607 11 54
47 Tunisia 606 -1 -3
48 Peru 603 -4 -8
49 Slovakia 595 -6 -24
49 Ukraine 595 6 20
51 Bulgaria 585 -11 -42
52 Panama 582 -6 -27
53 Central African Republic 581 -1 0
53 Nigeria 581 4 28
55 Libya 572 4 27
56 Iran 552 -12 -59
57 Venezuela 551 -9 -49
58 Poland 550 -4 -29
59 Honduras 540 -3 -32
60 Guinea 527 11 42
61 Trinidad and Tobago 526 18 80
62 Cameroon 523 0 3
63 Sierra Leone 521 -2 0
64 Albania 518 3 22
65 Canada 517 -5 -9
66 Belarus 516 8 38
67 Costa Rica 515 -3 6
68 Uzbekistan 513 1 23
69 Cape Verde Islands 498 -6 -13
70 Austria 492 -2 0
71 Togo 491 2 12
72 Scotland 490 -2 2
73 Georgia 481 -8 -18
74 Morocco 466 -2 -16
75 Armenia 457 7 13
75 Benin 457 2 0
77 Senegal 455 -2 -16
78 Israel 454 0 2
79 FYR Macedonia 448 4 17
80 Angola 443 -1 -3
81 Equatorial Guinea 439 14 42
82 Guatemala 438 -6 -29
83 Wales 435 -17 -62
84 Uganda 434 2 6
85 Finland 431 6 20
86 Estonia 425 -2 -5
87 South Africa 416 -3 -14
88 China PR 410 0 -14
89 Burkina Faso 408 0 -15
90 Iceland 392 6 0
91 New Zealand 390 2 -14
92 Iraq 379 5 -11
93 Oman 374 -7 -54
94 Jordan 373 -4 -47
95 Northern Ireland 367 5 11
95 United Arab Emirates 367 14 47
97 Qatar 365 7 35
98 Sudan 357 4 24
99 Korea DPR 349 -18 -96
99 Zimbabwe 349 -1 -34
101 El Salvador 348 -7 -54
102 Niger 335 5 11
103 Latvia 334 5 12
104 Congo DR 332 -5 -28
105 New Caledonia 330 -1 0
106 Ethiopia 327 -4 -6
107 Congo 325 8 16
107 Malawi 325 -6 -12
109 Liberia 312 5 0
109 Mozambique 312 1 -6
111 Antigua and Barbuda 311 10 30
111 Suriname 311 14 46
113 Dominican Republic 304 -21 -102
114 Kuwait 288 -4 -30
115 Lithuania 284 4 -12
116 Azerbaijan 277 7 0
117 Sao Tome e Principe 275 16 35
118 Botswana 274 -1 -25
118 Namibia 274 -1 -25
120 St. Kitts and Nevis 271 -14 -56
121 Vietnam 270 17 53
122 Guyana 267 -6 -38
123 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 266 3 3
124 Saudi Arabia 258 -12 -55
125 Bahrain 256 -1 -14
126 Moldova 255 6 14
127 Turkmenistan 254 2 0
128 Cyprus 248 -1 -10
128 Puerto Rico 248 2 0
130 Lebanon 244 -18 -69
131 Burundi 241 -3 -14
132 Rwanda 233 -10 -47
132 Tajikistan 233 5 8
132 Thailand 233 20 73
135 Tanzania 231 -1 -6
136 Kenya 224 -6 -24
137 Cuba 223 4 25
138 Grenada 222 11 56
139 Tahiti 215 0 0
140 Chad 212 -20 -70
141 Kazakhstan 200 -1 0
142 Barbados 197 11 39
143 Gambia 186 -1 0
144 Nicaragua 180 -8 -53
144 Syria 180 3 8
146 Malta 178 3 12
147 Philippines 174 -4 -10
148 Luxembourg 172 -4 -7
149 St. Lucia 168 -3 -7
150 Solomon Islands 166 -1 0
151 Aruba 163 3 9
152 Faroe Islands 151 7 13
153 Liechtenstein 146 4 -1
154 Palestine 144 -6 -24
155 Indonesia 142 10 18
156 Bermuda 139 -21 -96
157 Malaysia 136 6 9
158 Singapore 134 5 7
159 Lesotho 130 -1 -10
159 Maldives 130 1 -5
161 Dominica 124 -6 -27
162 Hong Kong 112 10 4
163 Yemen 108 -1 -23
164 Myanmar 107 -8 -42
165 Vanuatu 99 9 0
166 Chinese Taipei 96 10 6
166 India 96 3 -20
168 Belize 92 -24 -87
169 Bangladesh 90 2 -24
170 Fiji 85 -3 -36
171 Nepal 83 -2 -33
172 Laos 78 5 -9
173 Samoa 74 -8 -50
174 Bahamas 66 9 0
174 Guinea-Bissau 66 1 -32
174 Montserrat 66 9 0
177 Curacao 65 -16 -69
178 Swaziland 61 7 5
179 Madagascar 55 -6 -51
179 Mongolia 55 7 0
181 Brunei Darussalam 52 6 0
181 Timor-Leste 52 6 0
183 Cambodia 50 8 1
184 South Sudan 49 16 29
185 Guam 48 -4 -23
186 Tonga 44 -9 -43
187 Afghanistan 39 -20 -82
187 US Virgin Islands 39 3 -11
189 Papua New Guinea 38 6 0
190 Pakistan 37 -10 -35
191 Sri Lanka 36 -9 -32
192 British Virgin Islands 34 5 0
193 Cayman Islands 33 -4 -18
194 American Samoa 30 -15 -55
195 Comoros 29 1 -7
196 Somalia 27 -3 -16
197 Eritrea 24 -5 -21
197 Seychelles 24 -3 -15
199 Macau 23 0 1
200 Kyrgyzstan 20 0 0
201 Cook Islands 16 -3 -12
202 Djibouti 13 0 -4
202 Mauritius 13 1 0
204 Andorra 11 -1 -2
205 Anguilla 4 0 0
206 Mauritania 3 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

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11 comments:

  1. LorricNovember 23, 2012 at 8:36 PM

    Oh wow, they let Australia into the East Asian Cup. That's going to spice that up with Asia's easily three best teams in it now.

    Poor Guam, Chinese Tapiei and Hong Kong are going to get smacked up by Australia and North Korea now with those two potentially deciding who goes on to face Japan, Korea Republic and China by who dishes out the heaviest beatings on those teams should those two tie.

    I think they'll have to look at changing the format in future if Australia participate in the next one. I wonder if they could even play it like the CONCACAF Gold Cup now they have 12 teams?

    Meanwhile, I'm expecting some obscene scores in that qualifying round.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JamboNovember 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM

      I don't believe it will be as one-sided as you say, these games are not being held on FIFA matchdays so we (Australia) are sending a much weakened squad, 11 uncapped players in a 25 man squad, 3 more only made their debut last week against South Korea. I think we will still probably win all our matches, but I'm certainly not expecting scores like the world record American Samoa game.

      Delete
    2. LorricNovember 24, 2012 at 8:07 PM

      Perhaps you're right. And North Korea are a defensive team. I've seen Guam take some tremendous beatings even from teams low in the Asian pecking order though.

      Delete
  2. EdNovember 24, 2012 at 8:49 AM

    Australia will send a selection almost entirely consisting of A-league players as the qualification tournament takes place outside the official FIFA match dates. Still, I too expect a fight with North Korea for the first spot.
    Should be quite an exciting finals tournament next July in South Korea.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarDecember 7, 2012 at 12:19 PM

      After the draw with North Korea it will come down to goal difference. I think the Aussies won't make it, although I do root for them.

      Delete
    2. EdDecember 7, 2012 at 2:50 PM

      Guam-Australia 0:9 today.
      Looks like they understand that it will come down to goal difference!

      Both now 3 played, 7 points and +10 diff. North Korea has 12-2, Australia 11-1. Last match day: Australia has the easier opponent Chinese Taipei, North Korea plays against the host Hong Kong.

      Delete
    3. LorricDecember 8, 2012 at 5:03 AM

      I predicted Australia would win a goal difference battle against North Korea. Let's see...

      Delete
    4. LorricDecember 8, 2012 at 5:05 AM

      Australia have an advantage. Korea DPR play first. They'll know exactly what they have to do to qualify.

      Delete
    5. LorricDecember 9, 2012 at 8:31 PM

      Australia went through. DPR set a decent bench mark by beating hosts Hong Kong 4-0, but Australia beat Chinese Taipei 8-0.

      Delete
  3. LorricDecember 3, 2012 at 1:43 AM

    Oh no. He's back. England's nemesis. Scolari...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LorricDecember 3, 2012 at 1:45 AM

      Just in time for England's upcoming pair of friendlies against Brazil. With that clown Mano, I thought I might finally see England beat Brazil.

      Delete