FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.
There will no less than 128 matches this month.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these probable results:
Colombia will climb to 4th, Mexico will be 10th, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will climb around 50 places, Turkmenistan - 32, Cameroon, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, China PR and Slovenia - 15 or more, Poland, Egypt, Morocco, Scotland and Turkey - 10 or more, while Bolivia will drop 29 places, Northern Ireland 24, Georgia - 17, Solomon Islands, Cape Verde Islands, Dominican Republic, Bulgaria, Albania and Korea DPR - 10 or more.
Probable April 2013 rank - Team - Probable April 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Spain | 1569 | 0 | -41 |
2 | Germany | 1428 | 0 | -45 |
3 | Argentina | 1355 | 0 | 46 |
4 | Colombia | 1272 | 2 | 113 |
5 | Portugal | 1202 | 2 | 69 |
6 | England | 1192 | -2 | 18 |
7 | Croatia | 1191 | 2 | 111 |
8 | Italy | 1106 | -3 | -67 |
9 | Netherlands | 1093 | -1 | -13 |
10 | Mexico | 1071 | 5 | 76 |
11 | Ecuador | 1056 | 0 | 19 |
12 | Russia | 1054 | -2 | -10 |
13 | Uruguay | 1036 | 3 | 86 |
14 | Greece | 1018 | -2 | -15 |
15 | Côte d'Ivoire | 1008 | -2 | -14 |
16 | Switzerland | 1001 | -2 | -18 |
17 | Brazil | 957 | 1 | 49 |
18 | Belgium | 953 | 1 | 61 |
19 | Czech Republic | 917 | 8 | 108 |
20 | Sweden | 916 | 1 | 67 |
21 | France | 914 | -4 | -7 |
22 | Ghana | 874 | -2 | -9 |
23 | Denmark | 865 | 2 | 51 |
24 | Norway | 855 | 5 | 71 |
25 | Chile | 830 | -3 | 1 |
26 | Japan | 827 | 0 | 16 |
27 | Mali | 826 | -3 | 11 |
28 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 802 | -5 | -23 |
29 | Nigeria | 776 | 1 | 1 |
30 | USA | 752 | 3 | 19 |
31 | Romania | 746 | 0 | -22 |
32 | Algeria | 735 | 2 | 13 |
33 | Montenegro | 728 | -5 | -62 |
34 | Hungary | 710 | -2 | -42 |
35 | Turkey | 699 | 10 | 83 |
36 | Peru | 678 | 5 | 54 |
37 | Republic of Ireland | 674 | 3 | 47 |
38 | Panama | 663 | 3 | 39 |
39 | Serbia | 659 | -4 | 2 |
40 | Australia | 654 | -1 | 20 |
41 | Slovenia | 650 | 15 | 83 |
42 | Zambia | 649 | -6 | 6 |
43 | Tunisia | 647 | 1 | 28 |
44 | Korea Republic | 634 | 3 | 33 |
45 | Costa Rica | 606 | 8 | 29 |
46 | Paraguay | 601 | -8 | -39 |
47 | Poland | 600 | 14 | 71 |
47 | Ukraine | 600 | 1 | 2 |
49 | Burkina Faso | 587 | 1 | -1 |
50 | Slovakia | 585 | 5 | 11 |
51 | Jamaica | 564 | 3 | -12 |
52 | Venezuela | 562 | -9 | -60 |
53 | Honduras | 557 | -4 | -35 |
54 | Scotland | 556 | 12 | 55 |
55 | Haiti | 552 | -4 | -32 |
56 | South Africa | 548 | 4 | 17 |
57 | Uzbekistan | 540 | 2 | 4 |
58 | Bulgaria | 539 | -12 | -76 |
59 | Iran | 538 | -2 | -2 |
60 | Cameroon | 533 | 19 | 80 |
61 | Central African Republic | 528 | -9 | -53 |
62 | Sierra Leone | 517 | 1 | 0 |
63 | Egypt | 507 | 12 | 29 |
64 | Senegal | 505 | 18 | 71 |
65 | Morocco | 498 | 12 | 23 |
66 | Bolivia | 492 | -29 | -149 |
66 | Israel | 492 | 8 | 7 |
68 | Belarus | 488 | -6 | -36 |
69 | Libya | 486 | -4 | -21 |
70 | Cape Verde Islands | 482 | -13 | -58 |
71 | Guinea | 480 | 1 | -9 |
72 | Wales | 477 | -1 | -14 |
73 | Gabon | 471 | 2 | -7 |
74 | Togo | 470 | -7 | -30 |
75 | Canada | 468 | -7 | -28 |
76 | Albania | 467 | -12 | -43 |
77 | Trinidad and Tobago | 463 | -8 | -31 |
78 | Uganda | 449 | 7 | 22 |
79 | FYR Macedonia | 441 | -6 | -46 |
80 | El Salvador | 440 | 3 | 8 |
81 | Congo DR | 435 | 0 | -2 |
82 | Cuba | 433 | -4 | -25 |
82 | New Zealand | 433 | 6 | 14 |
84 | Austria | 432 | -5 | -21 |
85 | Armenia | 421 | -1 | -10 |
86 | Georgia | 417 | -17 | -77 |
87 | Equatorial Guinea | 412 | 17 | 77 |
88 | Estonia | 411 | 1 | 3 |
89 | Guatemala | 401 | 2 | 8 |
90 | Iraq | 395 | 4 | 8 |
91 | Finland | 394 | -4 | -29 |
92 | China PR | 388 | 17 | 73 |
93 | Congo | 383 | 8 | 25 |
94 | Benin | 381 | -8 | -43 |
94 | Jordan | 381 | -4 | -13 |
96 | Angola | 378 | -1 | -3 |
97 | United Arab Emirates | 376 | 1 | 12 |
98 | Niger | 362 | -5 | -27 |
99 | Iceland | 361 | -7 | -31 |
100 | Qatar | 357 | -2 | -7 |
101 | Zimbabwe | 349 | -1 | -12 |
102 | Latvia | 347 | 6 | 28 |
103 | Tajikistan | 334 | 49 | 180 |
104 | New Caledonia | 333 | -1 | -3 |
105 | Mozambique | 330 | 2 | 9 |
105 | Oman | 330 | 0 | 1 |
107 | Ethiopia | 328 | 5 | 21 |
108 | Turkmenistan | 323 | 32 | 116 |
109 | Dominican Republic | 322 | -13 | -56 |
109 | Saudi Arabia | 322 | -3 | -5 |
111 | Kuwait | 311 | 2 | 17 |
111 | Suriname | 311 | -1 | 0 |
113 | Korea DPR | 310 | -11 | -31 |
114 | Malawi | 303 | -3 | -7 |
115 | Azerbaijan | 301 | 1 | 15 |
116 | Antigua and Barbuda | 288 | -2 | 0 |
117 | Namibia | 285 | 4 | 24 |
118 | Bahrain | 277 | -1 | 6 |
119 | Lithuania | 272 | -4 | -15 |
120 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 271 | -1 | 8 |
121 | Northern Ireland | 270 | -24 | -97 |
122 | Liberia | 266 | -4 | 1 |
123 | Burundi | 261 | 1 | 8 |
124 | Puerto Rico | 257 | -1 | 0 |
125 | Guyana | 248 | 0 | 0 |
126 | Botswana | 246 | -4 | -14 |
127 | Tanzania | 244 | -8 | -19 |
128 | Vietnam | 242 | 1 | 3 |
129 | Belize | 240 | -1 | 0 |
129 | Kenya | 240 | -3 | -7 |
131 | Rwanda | 229 | 1 | 1 |
132 | Lebanon | 225 | -2 | -9 |
133 | Sudan | 224 | -6 | -17 |
134 | Tahiti | 221 | 4 | 6 |
135 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 218 | 2 | -1 |
136 | Syria | 215 | -2 | -7 |
137 | Moldova | 214 | -6 | -18 |
138 | Thailand | 212 | -3 | -8 |
139 | Afghanistan | 210 | 2 | 20 |
140 | Grenada | 207 | -5 | -13 |
141 | Cyprus | 204 | -8 | -21 |
142 | Philippines | 201 | 3 | 28 |
143 | Kazakhstan | 199 | -4 | -13 |
144 | Barbados | 188 | -2 | 0 |
145 | Gambia | 187 | -1 | 11 |
146 | India | 178 | -3 | 1 |
147 | St. Lucia | 168 | -1 | 0 |
148 | Palestine | 164 | 2 | 3 |
149 | Aruba | 163 | 0 | 0 |
149 | Kyrgyzstan | 163 | 52 | 144 |
151 | Bangladesh | 161 | 6 | 18 |
151 | Luxembourg | 161 | 0 | 4 |
153 | Myanmar | 155 | 2 | 8 |
154 | Liechtenstein | 153 | 3 | 10 |
154 | Malta | 153 | -7 | -13 |
156 | Maldives | 152 | 5 | 16 |
157 | Nicaragua | 150 | -3 | 0 |
158 | Hong Kong | 148 | 1 | 7 |
159 | Sao Tome e Principe | 144 | -3 | 0 |
160 | Faroe Islands | 143 | -7 | -8 |
161 | Solomon Islands | 142 | -14 | -24 |
162 | Bermuda | 139 | -2 | 0 |
163 | Singapore | 133 | -1 | 0 |
164 | Chad | 131 | -2 | -2 |
165 | Malaysia | 128 | -1 | -1 |
166 | Dominica | 124 | -1 | 0 |
167 | Laos | 118 | 1 | 0 |
167 | Pakistan | 118 | 4 | 21 |
169 | Indonesia | 117 | -3 | -4 |
170 | Lesotho | 115 | -4 | -6 |
171 | Nepal | 108 | 4 | 23 |
171 | Yemen | 108 | -1 | 7 |
173 | Sri Lanka | 103 | 0 | 11 |
174 | Vanuatu | 102 | -5 | 0 |
175 | Mauritania | 94 | -3 | 0 |
176 | Chinese Taipei | 90 | -2 | 1 |
177 | Fiji | 85 | -2 | 0 |
178 | Samoa | 74 | -1 | 0 |
179 | Mongolia | 67 | -1 | -5 |
180 | Bahamas | 66 | -1 | 0 |
180 | Cambodia | 66 | 5 | 8 |
180 | Guinea-Bissau | 66 | 3 | 3 |
180 | Montserrat | 66 | -1 | 0 |
184 | Curacao | 65 | -2 | 0 |
184 | Guam | 65 | -5 | -1 |
184 | Swaziland | 65 | -1 | 2 |
187 | Timor-Leste | 52 | -1 | 0 |
188 | Madagascar | 51 | 0 | 2 |
189 | Mauritius | 50 | 0 | 2 |
190 | Brunei Darussalam | 46 | -4 | -6 |
191 | Tonga | 44 | -1 | 0 |
192 | Comoros | 41 | 0 | 3 |
193 | US Virgin Islands | 39 | -2 | 0 |
194 | Papua New Guinea | 38 | -2 | 0 |
195 | British Virgin Islands | 34 | -1 | 0 |
196 | Cayman Islands | 33 | -1 | 0 |
197 | American Samoa | 30 | -1 | 0 |
198 | Eritrea | 24 | -1 | 0 |
199 | Seychelles | 22 | -1 | 0 |
200 | South Sudan | 20 | 0 | 0 |
201 | Cook Islands | 16 | 1 | 0 |
202 | Macau | 14 | -4 | -8 |
202 | Somalia | 14 | 1 | 0 |
204 | Djibouti | 11 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Andorra | 9 | -1 | -2 |
206 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I've used fifa's ranking prognosis calculator for Albania's matches. The win against Norway gives Albania 596 points, but if you add a win for Albania's next friendly with Lithuania, it slightly hurts Albania's ranking, giving them only 584 points.
ReplyDeleteCould you explain this one?
Albania's first time frame average is at the moment 3935.4 matchpoints in 10 matches = 393.54.
ReplyDeleteA win against Lithuania tomorrow delivers 255 match points. This leads to a first time frame average of 4190.4 match points in 11 matches = 380.95, a loss of some 12 FIFA points.
In general a friendly hurts your FIFA points total, because it delivers less match points than a country's first time frame average.
Thanks for the info, Ed!
ReplyDeleteSo the time frame average wouldn't get hurt by an unofficial friendly, then..
Yes exactly, you put your finger right on the sore spot, as we say in Holland :)
ReplyDeletenext months top 20 ranking (a few teams have some games still to play:
ReplyDelete1 1 Spain 1538
2 2 Germany 1448
3 3 Argentina 1292
4 9 Croatia 1191
5 7 Portugal 1163
6 6 Colombia 1154 1272
7 4 England 1135
8 5 Italy 1117
9 8 Netherlands 1093
10 11 Ecuador 1056
11 10 Russia 1038 1080
12 13 Côte d'Ivoire 1008
13 12 Greece 986
14 15 Mexico 971
15 14 Switzerland 967
16 19 Belgium 953
17 16 Uruguay 932
18 17 France 914
19 18 Brazil 879 909
20 20 Ghana 874
Bosnia will have 896 so this is surely incorrect?
Delete1 Spain 1538
Delete2 Germany 1428
3 Argentina 1292
4 Croatia 1191
5 Portugal 1163
6 Colombia 1154
7 England 1135
8 Italy 1117
9 Netherlands 1093
10 Ecuador 1056
11 Russia 1052
12 Ivory Coast 1008
13 Greece 986
14 Mexico 971
15 Switzerland 967
16 Belgium 953
17 Uruguay 932
18 France 914
19 Denmark 900
20 Bosnia 896
Two notes - I have eliminated the Russia-Northern Ireland game at the moment as I have not seen a new date.
Brazil could move to 19 with a win in their friendly against Bolivia or 20 if it is canceled/not counted (909-889-879-897 (W-D-L-cancel)
The Bolivia - Brazil game will be taken into account for the April rankings, since it's on April 6th, and the deadline for the April rankings is on April 7th.
DeleteThe Northern Ireland vs Russia match will not count for the April rankings, when a new date is found it will count for the rankings that apply to that particular date.
@Ed
ReplyDeleteThanks!