Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| South Sudan | 200 | 140 | 60 |
| Syria | 134 | 79 | 55 |
| Fiji | 175 | 121 | 54 |
| China PR | 109 | 59 | 50 |
| Korea DPR | 102 | 57 | 45 |
| United Arab Emirates | 98 | 57 | 41 |
| Kuwait | 113 | 73 | 40 |
| Iraq | 94 | 55 | 39 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 183 | 146 | 37 |
| Eritrea | 197 | 163 | 34 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Central African Republic | 52 | 116 | -64 |
| Sierra Leone | 63 | 115 | -52 |
| Puerto Rico | 123 | 171 | -48 |
| Algeria | 34 | 81 | -47 |
| Haiti | 51 | 97 | -46 |
| Dominican Republic | 96 | 137 | -41 |
| Suriname | 110 | 151 | -41 |
| Afghanistan | 141 | 180 | -39 |
| Zambia | 36 | 71 | -35 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 57 | 92 | -35 |
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Egypt | 75 | 45 | 30 |
| Poland | 61 | 37 | 24 |
| Korea Republic | 47 | 25 | 22 |
| Scotland | 66 | 48 | 18 |
| Brazil | 18 | 3 | 15 |
| Australia | 39 | 24 | 15 |
| Costa Rica | 53 | 39 | 14 |
| Ukraine | 48 | 35 | 13 |
| Sweden | 21 | 10 | 11 |
| Iran | 57 | 46 | 11 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Algeria | 34 | 81 | -47 |
| Zambia | 36 | 71 | -35 |
| Mali | 24 | 51 | -27 |
| Burkina Faso | 50 | 75 | -25 |
| Ghana | 20 | 42 | -22 |
| Montenegro | 28 | 47 | -19 |
| Tunisia | 44 | 60 | -16 |
| Bolivia | 37 | 52 | -15 |
| Hungary | 32 | 43 | -11 |
| Greece | 12 | 20 | -8 |
Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:
Egypt - Central African Republic
Poland - Algeria
Korea Republic - Montenegro
Scotland - Haiti
Brazil - Greece
Australia - Bolivia
Costa Rica - Zambia
Ukraine - Mali
Sweden - Hungary
Iran - Sierra Leone
What do you mean by "Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking" ?? Are these hypothetical match-ups? Past games? Future games? And why would you have liked to see them now??
ReplyDeleteCAF is overrated.
ReplyDeleteThey are hypothetical match-ups. The reason is because of the wildly different positions of the teams in the rankings under scrutiny (Of course, this is a lot to do with FIFA's system being poor).
ReplyDeleteFor example, Iran and Sierra Leone are separated by just 6 places in the FIFA ranking, but 69 in the ELO ratings.
Egypt are 23 places BELOW Central African Republic on the FIFA rankings, but 71 places ABOVE them in the ELO ratings - a swing of 94 places.
Ok thanks. Speaking of Egypt (my team!), we fielded two different teams of eleven - one in each half - in our game against Swaziland the other day (which we won 10-0), so more than 6 substitutions. I'm very curious about whether the exclusion of this match from the calculations will increase or decrease our FIFA total points in the next ranking release (assuming we still beat Zimbabwe as expected (hopefully)). If Edgar or anyone can chime in on this it would be greatly appreciated :)
DeleteAndrew,
Deletenormally when you skip a friendly in the calculation your points total rises because a friendly in general delivers less match points than a country's average for the last time frame. In this case it's the same: Egypt will have 5 FIFA points more when the friendly against Swaziland is excluded.
With a win against Zimbabwe tomorrow your points total will then be 512.
Thanks a lot. That's good news.
Delete@Mark
DeleteThanks for the explanation.
There is clearly a difference between FIFA and Elo but which one is better? You should compare them alongside the Ziaian rankings at http://www.rankfootball.com
ReplyDeleteRichard,
Deletemay I ask you: how would you use the FIFA-ranking for predicting the result (home-win/draw/away-win) of any arbitrary match ?
Another question: how is the ranking at http://www.rankfootball.com calculated? Not a lot of documentation to be found on the site (to say the least)
Ed,
ReplyDeleteI don't know how FIFA would use their rankings to predict matches.
I think rankfootball.com has not been explained in detail online but however it is done, the ratings seem to be good.
It also has rankings for women's football.
I have compared the 3 mentioned ranking systems together with roonba rankings but that has been down for a while now.