FIFA Ranking: May 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May 2013.

Only one match left: Zambia - Zimbabwe a friendly scheduled for 28 April 2013.

This is how the points could change:

Zambia (L: 610, D: 616, W: 628) Zambia will be ranked between 48 and 46.
Zimbabwe (L: 330, D: 343, W: 370) Zimbabwe will be ranked between 105 and 100.

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible.

FIFA Ranking: May 2013 preview

Next update: 26 April 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May 2013.

Only 9 matches will affect the May ranking, two of them have already been played. Six of those still to be played will be part of the Windward Islands Tournament. The other one will involve Brazil and Chile.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these teams:

Team - Minimum Points - Maximum Points - Worst Ranking - Best Ranking

Brazil	892	923	21	18
Chile	832	878	24	22
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	223	261	135	123
Grenada	207	302	142	117
St. Lucia	145	228	160	132
Dominica	113	195	170	145

In the table below, I've used the lowest values possible for these teams, thus their totals won't drop.

Best teams to play against in May 2013

If you're planning to play a friendly between 6 May and 2 June, take a look at the list below.

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

Only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.

April 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

South Sudan	200	139	61
Korea DPR	115	57	58
Syria	137	80	57
Fiji	177	121	56
Kuwait	113	70	43
China PR	98	56	42
Iraq	96	59	37
New Zealand	86	52	34
United Arab Emirates	89	55	34
Guinea-Bissau	180	147	33

10000 sims on the road to Brazil

Remember Voros McCracken's "Road to South Africa"? I was a very faithful reader, but Voros seems to be out of the picture for now. On 1 September 2011, he announced he will be writing for ESPN Insider.

I really wanted to do something similar for the 2014 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding, but I never had the time to create an offense / defense rating system to use it to generate results. Three weeks after Voros made the announcement regarding ESPN Insider, Håkon (one of my readers) suggested calculating the expected goals from the Elo expected winning percentange.

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (12 April 2013)

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - Malta
100% - San Marino
99.49% - Liechtenstein
98.09% - Faroe Islands
97.5% - Luxembourg
85.76% - Kazakhstan
15.4% - Cyprus
3.6% - Azerbaijan
0.1% - Moldova
0.06% - Georgia

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (12 April 2013)

Italy look favorites to clinch the last seeded spot, with Ecuador, England, Mexico and Portugal around 15 points behind the Italians.

100% - Brazil
98.92% - Spain
94.54% - Germany
93.89% - Argentina
82.64% - Croatia

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (12 April 2013)

Japan always qualified in each of the 10000 simulations.

100% - Japan
99.99% - Argentina
99.9% - Netherlands
98.92% - Spain
98.12% - Ecuador
97.97% - Germany
97.8% - Colombia
95.73% - Russia

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (12 April)

Worst runner up:

15.6% - Norway
10.17% - Denmark
9.36% - Bulgaria
8.98% - Hungary
7.49% - Albania
6.97% - Czech Republic
5.48% - Romania

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (12 April 2013)

Pot 2:

85.78% - Egypt
74.42% - Congo
48.55% - Senegal
40.63% - South Africa
35.37% - Ethiopia
31.29% - Zambia
30.13% - Cameroon
21.39% - Libya
21.16% - Angola
15.84% - Tunisia
15.81% - Uganda

2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations (12 April 2013)

Last in group:

Belize - 80.65%
Martinique - 56.3%
Trinidad and Tobago - 36.54%
Haiti - 35.49%
Canada - 29.16%
El Salvador - 19.96%
Cuba - 16.63%
Panama - 11.01%
Honduras - 8.01%
Mexico - 3.53%
Costa Rica - 2.45%
USA - 0.27%

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (12 April 2013)

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 87.71%
Japan - 43.49%
Mexico - 30.11%
Italy - 22.57%
Nigeria - 8.02%
Uruguay - 4.08%
Brazil - 3.83%
Spain - 0.19%