FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
There will be a lot of movement due to devaluation of results.
At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Bosnia-Herzegovina (between 14 and 15 - 19 in January 2012)
Mali (between 21 and 23 - 24 in March 2013)
Albania (between 37 and 39 - 43 in May 2013)
At least four teams will drop to new lows:
Brazil (between 20 and 23 - 19 in April 2013).
Senegal (99 - 95 in December 1998)
Fiji (between 182 and 183 - 177 in April 2013)
Vanuatu (between 191 and 192 - 188 in April 2000)
If Brazil don't defeat England, they will drop out of the top 20.
Probable June 2013 rank - Team - Probable June 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Spain | 1614 | 0 | 76 |
2 | Germany | 1446 | 0 | 18 |
3 | Argentina | 1287 | 0 | -9 |
4 | Croatia | 1222 | 0 | 31 |
5 | Netherlands | 1158 | 4 | 65 |
6 | Portugal | 1137 | -1 | -26 |
7 | Colombia | 1123 | -1 | -31 |
8 | England | 1104 | -1 | -31 |
9 | Italy | 1097 | -1 | -20 |
10 | Ecuador | 1066 | 0 | 8 |
11 | Russia | 1059 | 0 | 7 |
12 | Côte d'Ivoire | 1022 | 0 | 14 |
13 | Switzerland | 1010 | 1 | 43 |
14 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1008 | 7 | 112 |
15 | Greece | 1006 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Belgium | 1003 | -1 | 50 |
17 | Mexico | 951 | -1 | 6 |
18 | France | 922 | 0 | 8 |
19 | Uruguay | 913 | -2 | -19 |
20 | Brazil | 898 | -1 | -4 |
21 | Denmark | 890 | -1 | -10 |
22 | Ghana | 871 | 0 | -3 |
23 | Mali | 869 | 3 | 43 |
24 | Czech Republic | 853 | 1 | 24 |
25 | Chile | 841 | -2 | -6 |
25 | Montenegro | 841 | 2 | 52 |
27 | Sweden | 830 | -3 | -8 |
28 | Japan | 799 | 2 | 26 |
29 | Norway | 794 | 2 | 34 |
30 | Nigeria | 774 | -2 | -6 |
31 | USA | 771 | -2 | -8 |
32 | Peru | 764 | 0 | 11 |
33 | Hungary | 759 | 0 | 10 |
34 | Romania | 750 | 0 | 4 |
35 | Serbia | 723 | 5 | 64 |
36 | Algeria | 716 | -1 | -19 |
37 | Venezuela | 712 | -1 | 9 |
38 | Ukraine | 708 | -1 | 33 |
39 | Albania | 690 | 4 | 50 |
40 | Korea Republic | 666 | 2 | 22 |
41 | Panama | 658 | -3 | -5 |
42 | Tunisia | 652 | -1 | 5 |
43 | Republic of Ireland | 645 | -4 | -17 |
44 | Paraguay | 640 | 0 | 6 |
45 | Wales | 638 | 4 | 49 |
46 | Australia | 619 | 1 | -5 |
46 | Zambia | 619 | 0 | -9 |
48 | Turkey | 606 | -4 | -28 |
49 | Costa Rica | 605 | -1 | -11 |
50 | Burkina Faso | 603 | 0 | 16 |
51 | Jamaica | 602 | 2 | 31 |
52 | Honduras | 591 | -2 | 4 |
53 | Bolivia | 578 | 5 | 41 |
54 | Bulgaria | 575 | -2 | -8 |
55 | Slovakia | 565 | -1 | 2 |
56 | New Zealand | 551 | 31 | 118 |
57 | Uzbekistan | 550 | 9 | 29 |
58 | Central African Republic | 543 | 6 | 15 |
59 | South Africa | 542 | -3 | 1 |
60 | Iceland | 541 | 13 | 72 |
61 | Haiti | 538 | -2 | 2 |
62 | Slovenia | 532 | -7 | -28 |
63 | Equatorial Guinea | 523 | -2 | -12 |
64 | Poland | 517 | -1 | -12 |
65 | Israel | 511 | -6 | -25 |
66 | Belarus | 506 | 3 | 4 |
67 | Iran | 504 | -10 | -34 |
68 | Cameroon | 500 | -6 | -33 |
69 | Sierra Leone | 497 | -2 | -20 |
70 | Egypt | 491 | -2 | -21 |
71 | Cape Verde Islands | 486 | 4 | 22 |
72 | Libya | 484 | -7 | -40 |
73 | Togo | 483 | -1 | 13 |
74 | Scotland | 481 | 4 | 22 |
75 | Jordan | 472 | 2 | 10 |
76 | Austria | 469 | -5 | -3 |
77 | Morocco | 463 | -3 | -3 |
78 | FYR Macedonia | 460 | 6 | 19 |
79 | Canada | 454 | 1 | -3 |
80 | Guinea | 453 | -10 | -27 |
81 | Congo | 452 | -3 | -7 |
82 | Trinidad and Tobago | 447 | 0 | 0 |
83 | Gabon | 444 | -2 | -6 |
84 | Finland | 442 | -1 | -2 |
85 | El Salvador | 429 | 0 | -11 |
86 | United Arab Emirates | 424 | 3 | 1 |
87 | Congo DR | 421 | -1 | -14 |
88 | Uganda | 418 | 3 | 5 |
89 | Guatemala | 410 | 5 | 10 |
90 | Armenia | 408 | 0 | -13 |
90 | Estonia | 408 | 2 | -3 |
92 | Angola | 406 | 1 | 5 |
92 | Cuba | 406 | -5 | -27 |
94 | Dominican Republic | 396 | 1 | 0 |
95 | China PR | 393 | 3 | 5 |
96 | Georgia | 391 | 0 | -3 |
97 | Iraq | 375 | 0 | -16 |
98 | New Caledonia | 371 | 6 | 38 |
99 | Senegal | 366 | -23 | -97 |
100 | Liberia | 351 | 3 | 17 |
101 | Mozambique | 349 | 5 | 20 |
102 | Qatar | 347 | -1 | 2 |
103 | Oman | 346 | -1 | 2 |
104 | Zimbabwe | 342 | 1 | 12 |
105 | Ethiopia | 330 | 2 | 2 |
105 | Lithuania | 330 | 6 | 14 |
105 | Malawi | 330 | 4 | 7 |
108 | Niger | 325 | -8 | -37 |
109 | Saudi Arabia | 323 | -1 | -1 |
110 | Kuwait | 315 | 3 | 4 |
111 | Tajikistan | 312 | 1 | 0 |
111 | Tanzania | 312 | 5 | 6 |
113 | Suriname | 311 | 0 | 0 |
114 | Korea DPR | 309 | 1 | 0 |
115 | Benin | 308 | -16 | -73 |
116 | Northern Ireland | 304 | 3 | 19 |
117 | Bahrain | 292 | 0 | 1 |
118 | Namibia | 285 | 7 | 28 |
119 | Azerbaijan | 281 | 1 | 5 |
120 | Antigua and Barbuda | 280 | -2 | -8 |
121 | Latvia | 277 | -11 | -45 |
122 | Cyprus | 269 | 1 | 7 |
123 | Grenada | 266 | -2 | -9 |
124 | Kenya | 258 | -2 | -8 |
125 | Burundi | 256 | -1 | -5 |
126 | Guyana | 249 | 2 | 1 |
127 | Botswana | 245 | -2 | -12 |
128 | Puerto Rico | 241 | -3 | -16 |
129 | Belize | 239 | 1 | 0 |
130 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 238 | 1 | 2 |
131 | Sudan | 235 | 3 | 11 |
132 | Turkmenistan | 232 | 1 | 0 |
133 | Vietnam | 231 | -1 | -3 |
134 | Moldova | 230 | 5 | 16 |
135 | Lebanon | 228 | -6 | -14 |
136 | Rwanda | 224 | 0 | 5 |
137 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 218 | 0 | 0 |
138 | Syria | 215 | 0 | 0 |
138 | Tahiti | 215 | -3 | -6 |
140 | Afghanistan | 210 | 0 | 0 |
140 | St. Lucia | 210 | 0 | 0 |
142 | Thailand | 209 | 0 | 1 |
143 | Kyrgyzstan | 206 | 0 | 0 |
144 | Philippines | 203 | 0 | 4 |
145 | Luxembourg | 186 | 3 | 4 |
146 | Kazakhstan | 180 | -2 | -19 |
147 | India | 179 | 3 | 1 |
148 | Hong Kong | 178 | 3 | 2 |
149 | Barbados | 175 | -3 | -13 |
150 | Aruba | 163 | 2 | 0 |
151 | Palestine | 162 | 2 | 0 |
152 | Lesotho | 156 | 3 | 2 |
153 | Chad | 152 | 13 | 21 |
154 | Myanmar | 149 | 4 | 0 |
155 | Malta | 148 | 1 | -5 |
156 | Bangladesh | 147 | -2 | -14 |
157 | Maldives | 146 | 2 | 0 |
158 | Liechtenstein | 145 | -10 | -37 |
159 | Malaysia | 144 | 2 | 1 |
159 | Sao Tome e Principe | 144 | 1 | 0 |
161 | Bermuda | 139 | 3 | 0 |
162 | Faroe Islands | 138 | -1 | -5 |
162 | Gambia | 138 | -15 | -49 |
162 | Nicaragua | 138 | -5 | -12 |
165 | Singapore | 134 | 0 | 1 |
166 | Solomon Islands | 130 | -3 | -12 |
167 | Dominica | 124 | 0 | 0 |
168 | Laos | 118 | 0 | 0 |
168 | Pakistan | 118 | 0 | 0 |
170 | Indonesia | 116 | 0 | -1 |
171 | Nepal | 108 | 0 | 0 |
172 | Sri Lanka | 99 | 2 | 0 |
173 | Yemen | 96 | 0 | -4 |
174 | Mauritania | 94 | 1 | 0 |
175 | Chinese Taipei | 90 | 1 | 0 |
176 | Bahamas | 66 | 3 | 0 |
176 | Montserrat | 66 | 3 | 0 |
178 | Curacao | 65 | 4 | 0 |
178 | Guam | 65 | 4 | 0 |
178 | Swaziland | 65 | 4 | 0 |
181 | Guinea-Bissau | 62 | -2 | -4 |
182 | Fiji | 61 | -5 | -24 |
182 | Mongolia | 61 | 3 | 0 |
184 | Madagascar | 55 | 4 | 4 |
185 | Brunei Darussalam | 52 | 1 | 0 |
185 | Mauritius | 52 | 4 | 2 |
185 | Timor-Leste | 52 | 1 | 0 |
188 | Samoa | 46 | -10 | -28 |
189 | Cambodia | 45 | 1 | 0 |
190 | Tonga | 44 | 1 | 0 |
191 | Vanuatu | 43 | -19 | -59 |
192 | Comoros | 41 | 0 | 0 |
193 | US Virgin Islands | 39 | 0 | 0 |
194 | Papua New Guinea | 38 | 0 | 0 |
195 | British Virgin Islands | 34 | 0 | 0 |
196 | Cayman Islands | 33 | 0 | 0 |
197 | American Samoa | 30 | 0 | 0 |
198 | Eritrea | 24 | 0 | 0 |
199 | Seychelles | 22 | 0 | 0 |
200 | South Sudan | 20 | 0 | 0 |
201 | Cook Islands | 16 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Macau | 14 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Somalia | 14 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Djibouti | 11 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | -1 |
206 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
You mentioned on the other page that Scotland would have a min of 481 points but here you have them on 466 points? Cheers Stewart
ReplyDeleteThe probable points column wasn't updated. 466 - Morocco's points this month (they're ranked 74th). :)
DeleteThanks for noticing! It's fixed now.
Edward,
ReplyDeleteIt's been interesting to watch Croatia's climb. Is there a story that we can tell about what's been driving the climb? Have they been beating top European teams? Have the other top teams (excluding Spain and Germany) all been having stumbles? Does the rolling off of old matches been driving this upward trend? Has it been one or two matches? Any insights would be appreciated!
Btw, if Croatia does have a top 7 ranking when the WC Draw is done in December (as your simulations highly suggest), it will be interesting to see if they get a seed (which I think would be deserved based on the ranking), but somehow I'm suspicious about FIFA giving Croatia a seed... Not sure if suspicion is warranted. Thoughts anyone?
It's their qualifying group. All the teams were respectively ranked, and they're beating them all.
DeleteFIFA I don't see why they wouldn't seed Croatia. Even if they were out to rig the event, they could just rig in a France/Portugal/England that didn't get seeded. They'd probably toss England in there, that would have the most neutral appeal to let the rivalry continue.
But honestly, I think they'll just seed whoever's top 7. The big teams, even if unseeded, ought to be able to get out of their groups short of a group of death situation. And groupsof death can occur even with seeded teams. Italy crashed out of the softest looking group last time.
Do they even need to rig anything? It's the World Cup. In Brazil. I predict it will shatter records.
EDIT: RESPECTABLY ranked.
DeleteWhat kind of records do you think will be shattered, Lorric? I personally think we'll see some of the bigger nations struggle again with one or two surprise quarter-finalists e.g. Belgium, Bosnia, Japan.
DeleteI was thinking things like attendances, viewing figures, TV deals.
DeleteFIFA includes the June 4 matches in its ranking points calculator. Won't they be included??
ReplyDelete@Dorian
ReplyDeleteLorric explanation is on the spot.
@Andrew Sidhom
I think it's unlikely.