Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
There will be a lot of movement due to devaluation of results.
At least four teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Belgium (12 - 15 in May 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (15 - 19 in January 2012)
Mali (between 22 and 23 - 24 in March 2013)
Albania (between 38 and 39 - 43 in May 2013)
At least five teams will drop to new lows:
Brazil (between 20 and 23 - 19 in April 2013).
Senegal (99 - 95 in December 1998)
Latvia (119 - 118 in October 2012)
Fiji (between 182 and 183 - 177 in April 2013)
Vanuatu (between 191 and 192 - 188 in April 2000)
If Brazil don't defeat England, they will drop out of the top 20.
Probable June 2013 rank - Team - Probable June 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Spain | 1614 | 0 | 76 |
2 | Germany | 1446 | 0 | 18 |
3 | Argentina | 1287 | 0 | -9 |
4 | Croatia | 1222 | 0 | 31 |
5 | Netherlands | 1158 | 4 | 65 |
6 | Portugal | 1137 | -1 | -26 |
7 | Colombia | 1123 | -1 | -31 |
8 | Italy | 1097 | 0 | -20 |
9 | England | 1083 | -2 | -52 |
10 | Ecuador | 1066 | 0 | 8 |
11 | Russia | 1059 | 0 | 7 |
12 | Belgium | 1035 | 3 | 82 |
13 | Côte d'Ivoire | 1022 | -1 | 14 |
14 | Switzerland | 1010 | 0 | 43 |
15 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1008 | 6 | 112 |
16 | Greece | 1006 | -3 | 20 |
17 | Mexico | 951 | -1 | 6 |
18 | France | 922 | 0 | 8 |
19 | Uruguay | 913 | -2 | -19 |
20 | Brazil | 898 | -1 | -4 |
21 | Denmark | 890 | -1 | -10 |
22 | Ghana | 887 | 0 | 13 |
23 | Mali | 869 | 3 | 43 |
24 | Czech Republic | 853 | 1 | 24 |
25 | Chile | 841 | -2 | -6 |
25 | Montenegro | 841 | 2 | 52 |
27 | Sweden | 830 | -3 | -8 |
28 | Norway | 794 | 3 | 34 |
29 | Nigeria | 774 | -1 | -6 |
30 | Japan | 765 | 0 | -8 |
31 | Peru | 764 | 1 | 11 |
32 | Hungary | 759 | 1 | 10 |
33 | USA | 758 | -4 | -21 |
34 | Romania | 750 | 0 | 4 |
35 | Serbia | 723 | 5 | 64 |
36 | Algeria | 716 | -1 | -19 |
37 | Venezuela | 712 | -1 | 9 |
38 | Ukraine | 708 | -1 | 33 |
39 | Albania | 690 | 4 | 50 |
40 | Korea Republic | 666 | 2 | 22 |
41 | Republic of Ireland | 659 | -2 | -3 |
42 | Panama | 658 | -4 | -5 |
43 | Tunisia | 652 | -2 | 5 |
44 | Paraguay | 640 | 0 | 6 |
45 | Wales | 638 | 4 | 49 |
46 | Bulgaria | 628 | 6 | 45 |
47 | Australia | 619 | 0 | -5 |
48 | Costa Rica | 617 | 0 | 1 |
49 | Turkey | 613 | -5 | -21 |
50 | Burkina Faso | 603 | 0 | 16 |
51 | Jamaica | 602 | 2 | 31 |
51 | Zambia | 602 | -5 | -26 |
53 | Honduras | 591 | -3 | 4 |
54 | Bolivia | 578 | 4 | 41 |
55 | Slovakia | 565 | -1 | 2 |
56 | New Zealand | 551 | 31 | 118 |
57 | Uzbekistan | 550 | 9 | 29 |
58 | Central African Republic | 543 | 6 | 15 |
59 | South Africa | 542 | -3 | 1 |
60 | Iceland | 541 | 13 | 72 |
61 | Haiti | 538 | -2 | 2 |
62 | Equatorial Guinea | 523 | -1 | -12 |
63 | Poland | 517 | 0 | -12 |
64 | Slovenia | 516 | -9 | -44 |
65 | Israel | 511 | -6 | -25 |
66 | Belarus | 506 | 3 | 4 |
66 | Iran | 506 | -9 | -32 |
68 | Cameroon | 500 | -6 | -33 |
69 | Sierra Leone | 497 | -2 | -20 |
70 | Egypt | 491 | -2 | -21 |
71 | Libya | 490 | -6 | -34 |
72 | Cape Verde Islands | 486 | 3 | 22 |
73 | Togo | 483 | -1 | 13 |
74 | Scotland | 481 | 4 | 22 |
75 | Jordan | 472 | 2 | 10 |
76 | Austria | 469 | -5 | -3 |
77 | Morocco | 463 | -3 | -3 |
78 | FYR Macedonia | 460 | 6 | 19 |
79 | Congo | 452 | -1 | -7 |
80 | Trinidad and Tobago | 447 | 2 | 0 |
81 | Gabon | 444 | 0 | -6 |
82 | Canada | 443 | -2 | -14 |
83 | Finland | 442 | 0 | -2 |
84 | Congo DR | 432 | 2 | -3 |
85 | El Salvador | 429 | 0 | -11 |
86 | Guinea | 428 | -16 | -52 |
87 | United Arab Emirates | 424 | 2 | 1 |
88 | Guatemala | 410 | 6 | 10 |
89 | Armenia | 408 | 1 | -13 |
89 | Estonia | 408 | 3 | -3 |
91 | Angola | 406 | 2 | 5 |
91 | Cuba | 406 | -4 | -27 |
93 | Uganda | 401 | -2 | -12 |
94 | Dominican Republic | 396 | 1 | 0 |
95 | China PR | 393 | 3 | 5 |
96 | Georgia | 391 | 0 | -3 |
97 | New Caledonia | 371 | 7 | 38 |
98 | Iraq | 370 | -1 | -21 |
99 | Senegal | 366 | -23 | -97 |
100 | Liberia | 356 | 3 | 22 |
101 | Oman | 351 | 1 | 7 |
102 | Zimbabwe | 350 | 3 | 20 |
103 | Mozambique | 349 | 3 | 20 |
104 | Qatar | 338 | -3 | -7 |
105 | Lithuania | 330 | 6 | 14 |
106 | Ethiopia | 328 | 1 | 0 |
107 | Niger | 325 | -7 | -37 |
108 | Saudi Arabia | 323 | 0 | -1 |
109 | Malawi | 317 | 0 | -6 |
109 | Tanzania | 317 | 7 | 11 |
111 | Kuwait | 315 | 2 | 4 |
112 | Tajikistan | 312 | 0 | 0 |
113 | Suriname | 311 | 0 | 0 |
114 | Korea DPR | 309 | 1 | 0 |
115 | Benin | 308 | -16 | -73 |
116 | Northern Ireland | 304 | 3 | 19 |
117 | Bahrain | 292 | 0 | 1 |
118 | Azerbaijan | 291 | 2 | 15 |
119 | Latvia | 287 | -9 | -35 |
120 | Namibia | 281 | 5 | 24 |
121 | Antigua and Barbuda | 280 | -3 | -8 |
122 | Cyprus | 269 | 1 | 7 |
123 | Kenya | 268 | -1 | 2 |
124 | Grenada | 266 | -3 | -9 |
125 | Burundi | 256 | -1 | -5 |
126 | Guyana | 249 | 2 | 1 |
127 | Botswana | 245 | -2 | -12 |
128 | Puerto Rico | 241 | -3 | -16 |
129 | Belize | 239 | 1 | 0 |
130 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 238 | 1 | 2 |
131 | Lebanon | 233 | -2 | -9 |
132 | Turkmenistan | 232 | 1 | 0 |
133 | Vietnam | 231 | -1 | -3 |
134 | Moldova | 230 | 5 | 16 |
135 | Rwanda | 224 | 1 | 5 |
135 | Sudan | 224 | -1 | 0 |
137 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 218 | 0 | 0 |
138 | Syria | 215 | 0 | 0 |
138 | Tahiti | 215 | -3 | -6 |
140 | Afghanistan | 210 | 0 | 0 |
140 | St. Lucia | 210 | 0 | 0 |
142 | Thailand | 209 | 0 | 1 |
143 | Kyrgyzstan | 206 | 0 | 0 |
144 | Philippines | 203 | 0 | 4 |
145 | Luxembourg | 186 | 3 | 4 |
146 | Kazakhstan | 180 | -2 | -19 |
147 | Hong Kong | 178 | 4 | 2 |
147 | India | 178 | 3 | 0 |
149 | Barbados | 175 | -3 | -13 |
150 | Aruba | 163 | 2 | 0 |
151 | Palestine | 162 | 2 | 0 |
152 | Bangladesh | 161 | 2 | 0 |
153 | Lesotho | 156 | 2 | 2 |
154 | Chad | 152 | 12 | 21 |
155 | Myanmar | 149 | 3 | 0 |
156 | Malta | 148 | 0 | -5 |
157 | Maldives | 146 | 2 | 0 |
158 | Liechtenstein | 145 | -10 | -37 |
159 | Malaysia | 144 | 2 | 1 |
159 | Sao Tome e Principe | 144 | 1 | 0 |
161 | Bermuda | 139 | 3 | 0 |
162 | Faroe Islands | 138 | -1 | -5 |
162 | Gambia | 138 | -15 | -49 |
162 | Nicaragua | 138 | -5 | -12 |
165 | Singapore | 134 | 0 | 1 |
166 | Solomon Islands | 130 | -3 | -12 |
167 | Dominica | 124 | 0 | 0 |
168 | Laos | 118 | 0 | 0 |
168 | Pakistan | 118 | 0 | 0 |
170 | Indonesia | 116 | 0 | -1 |
171 | Nepal | 108 | 0 | 0 |
172 | Sri Lanka | 99 | 2 | 0 |
173 | Yemen | 96 | 0 | -4 |
174 | Mauritania | 94 | 1 | 0 |
175 | Chinese Taipei | 90 | 1 | 0 |
176 | Bahamas | 66 | 3 | 0 |
176 | Montserrat | 66 | 3 | 0 |
178 | Curacao | 65 | 4 | 0 |
178 | Guam | 65 | 4 | 0 |
178 | Swaziland | 65 | 4 | 0 |
181 | Guinea-Bissau | 62 | -2 | -4 |
182 | Fiji | 61 | -5 | -24 |
182 | Mongolia | 61 | 3 | 0 |
184 | Madagascar | 55 | 4 | 4 |
185 | Brunei Darussalam | 52 | 1 | 0 |
185 | Mauritius | 52 | 4 | 2 |
185 | Timor-Leste | 52 | 1 | 0 |
188 | Samoa | 46 | -10 | -28 |
189 | Cambodia | 45 | 1 | 0 |
190 | Tonga | 44 | 1 | 0 |
191 | Vanuatu | 43 | -19 | -59 |
192 | Comoros | 41 | 0 | 0 |
193 | US Virgin Islands | 39 | 0 | 0 |
194 | Papua New Guinea | 38 | 0 | 0 |
195 | British Virgin Islands | 34 | 0 | 0 |
196 | Cayman Islands | 33 | 0 | 0 |
197 | American Samoa | 30 | 0 | 0 |
198 | Eritrea | 24 | 0 | 0 |
199 | Seychelles | 22 | 0 | 0 |
200 | South Sudan | 20 | 0 | 0 |
201 | Cook Islands | 16 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Macau | 14 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Somalia | 14 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Djibouti | 11 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | -1 |
206 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Go Belgium! Top 10 here we come ;-)
ReplyDeleteBelgium indeed continues its relentless march upwards. Mind You, considering their team, that is not surprising! Awesome!
ReplyDeleteWhat a change from 4 years ago and the Bosnia dismantling the Belgian side in Brussels 2:4!
I really hope we don't play Belgium any time soon...
Bosnia isnt doing too bad either;-)
ReplyDeletelibya matches with Mauritania 2-0 and Uganda 3-0
ReplyDeleteare not "A" matches
the 2 matches Libya substitute 9 players
The match vs. Uganda was included in the June calculation.
DeleteIt is said that Bosnia and Herzegovina will play against USA in the August friendlies. I don't know if it is 100% official (even thought FIFA added the game to the calender already), but what does the ELO prediction say about the game, who is gonna win/draw? And what would be the position/points of Bosnia and Herzegovina if it wins that game?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Since Bosnia has been doing great in the last year, a friendly can only lower its points average. Yes, even if they win. I guess this means the dreams of being seeded are over.
DeleteAbsurd.
DeleteI'm aware that Bosnia has gathered among the most points in the last 12-18 months regarding all the countries, but I expect from USA to be around place 20-25 when the game commence so the devaluation of the points won't be big. About a being seeded, I never even thought would be possible for us because we were to low when the qualifications began and the opponents in our group aren't really high ranked on the FIFA ranking, especially now.
DeleteBut thanks again for your reply
max points if Bosnia faces USA (ranked 20) would be 508 points. IF they win (about 169 pts with a draw). So the devaluation might still be quite a lot.
DeleteAnon,
DeleteFor a friendly against the USA in August Elo predicts a loss if the USA plays at home, otherwise it will be a draw. With that draw Bosnia drops to a 14th spot with a predicted 1031 points in October.
If Bosnia wins that tie, they remain at a predicted 12th spot with 1066 points. So they will lose at least 20 points playing that friendly, compared to the current predicted 1086 points.
The real killer is bloody Oman...
DeleteOh well, look on the bright side, they're not a bad team. They're actually in a position to qualify directly to the World Cup at this point, though Australia are 2pts behind with a game in hand and still the favourites to take that place. I know the 101st place does nothing for the Bosnia, but at least the match should be useful preparation, I'm sure they're better than Latvia/Lithuania/Liechtenstein and should be decent preparation for closing out this campaign.
DeleteUSA is decent preparation... PRettz much not one Asian team apart from the Aussies, Japan or Korea are realistic preparation...
DeleteThis is unfortunately just our FA taking money from rich Arabs, nothing more I'm afraid... In any case, bye bye seeding unless something TECTONIC doesn' happen, like 3-4 top teams not qualifying :)
In any case, we need tomorrow's 3 points, those Baltic states are a bitch away :)
DeleteIndeed! Maybe it's blessing though, lets qualify first and foremost! And THEN bring on Brazil, Argentina, Spain,Germany lol! :)
ReplyDeleteKeep up the the positive results Bosnia!!
ReplyDeleteGo Bosnia !!!
ReplyDeleteAlmost every team higher ranked than Bosnia plays more friendly games than bloody Bosnia. So every other team looses more points than Bosnia.
ReplyDeleteNetherlands now play Indonesia and Thailand. England played Brazil and Ireland. USA played Belgium and Germany. Germany played Ecuador and USA ....
I don't understand why I'm struggling to get the points of 4 African countries right for the June ranking. Difference in the last timeframe (100% timeframe) between FIFA-ranking and my ranking.
ReplyDeleteCountries are:
Lesotho (FIFA: 101,53 pts. me: 116,04 in 7 matches)
Libya (FIFA: 205,3 pts. me: 194,52 in 8 matches)
South Africa (FIFA: 282,24 pts. me: 292,46 in 15 matches)
Uganda (FIFA: 227,58 pts. me: 243,9 in 14 matches)
The other timeframes are correct, only the last timeframe for these 4 countries don't match with the FIFA-rankings.
I believe I have all the matches and their results right so I assume it has something to do with corrections the FIFA made in the previous rankings which have their influence on the points gained for a match.
Can somebody help me please?
Hey Tobcoach,
DeleteIt's about the matches LES-RSA (0:2, 2/6/2013) and LBY-UGA (3:0, 1/6/2013). Both matches are not in the FIFA results list anymore, but nonetheless they are included in the calculation of the points totals. Apparently that happens sometimes.
Both matches were deleted from the results list somewhere around the deadline date for the June ranking (3 or 4 June) and that's probably why they are still included in the calculation of the June ranking. I expect that both matches will be excluded from the calculation for the July ranking.
Ed,
DeleteThank you, now the number add up correctly. Apparently, I missed those two matches being removed. Maybe because I've been on vacation the past week. On your vacation, you tend to think of someting other than the FIFA-rankings, you know...
Thanks again!!
Ed, also thanks. Now i know why FIFA took 30 games into account in their publishing, while i had only 28.
DeleteEd - thanks as usual!
ReplyDelete