2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 88.46%
Japan - 44.86%
Mexico - 29.32%
Italy - 22.11%
Nigeria - 8.3%
Brazil - 3.71%
Uruguay - 3.12%
Spain - 0.12%

Third in group:

Nigeria - 54.91%
Mexico - 31.27%
Uruguay - 30.99%
Japan - 30.19%
Italy - 29.78%
Tahiti - 9.75%
Brazil - 8.76%
Spain - 4.35%

Third place play-off loser:

Uruguay - 30.16%
Nigeria - 21.69%
Mexico - 12.89%
Italy - 12.62%
Japan - 10.17%
Spain - 5.63%
Brazil - 5.12%
Tahiti - 1.72%

Third place play-off winner:

Spain - 22.21%
Uruguay - 17.14%
Brazil - 17.09%
Italy - 15.89%
Mexico - 11.98%
Japan - 7.83%
Nigeria - 7.82%
Tahiti - 0.04%

Losing finalist:

Spain - 25.91%
Brazil - 23.96%
Uruguay - 14.41%
Italy - 13.49%
Mexico - 10.81%
Nigeria - 6.16%
Japan - 5.23%
Tahiti - 0.03%

Winner:

Spain - 41.78%
Brazil - 41.36%
Italy - 6.11%
Uruguay - 4.18%
Mexico - 3.73%
Japan - 1.72%
Nigeria - 1.12%
Tahiti - 0%

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.