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Friday, June 14, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Most points gained:

33.57% - Belgium
22.3% - Chile
21.89% - Colombia
11.64% - Uruguay
10.3% - Portugal

Most points lost:

-48.13% - Croatia
-22.29% - Ecuador
-15.47% - Mexico
Belgium replace Croatia in the list of seeds. See the previous post.


100% - Brazil
98.97% - Spain
97.54% - Germany
88.63% - Argentina
74.99% - Colombia
66.04% - Netherlands
50.6% - Belgium
38.47% - Italy
34.51% - Croatia
31.71% - Portugal
27.32% - England
25.49% - Chile
22.52% - Uruguay
16.81% - Switzerland
8.34% - Mexico
8.26% - Ecuador
7.52% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.84% - Peru
0.34% - Czech Republic
0.07% - Albania
0.02% - USA
0.01% - Greece

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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9 comments:

  1. DorianJune 20, 2013 at 6:42 PM

    Edgar,
    Love the WCF seeding simulations! Look forward to the next update! Also looking forward to the October 2013 probable ranking for seeding purposes given all the recent matches. If you were also interested, I would enjoy seeing what October 2013 would be if only 2 years of past matches were used. More later, but I suspect FIFA will tweak the seeding formula (instead of just using the pure rankings) to get a group of seeds they like better...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJune 20, 2013 at 7:04 PM

      FIFA will pick their favoured 8 seeds, then contrive a formula that makes it so. It's about time they were transparent with this and announced what they were going to do before a ball is kicked in qualifying. I mean why even have World Rankings if you are not going to utilise them. I see they have just announced that the UEFA and Africa playoffs are to be seeded. Again, this should be made clear at the start of the campaign. It amazes me how they continue to get away with it.

      Delete
    2. EdgarJune 21, 2013 at 1:15 PM

      Hi Dorian,

      Maybe next week I will take a look at the 2 years thing. Depends on time I have.

      Delete
    3. Daniel BurnierSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:46 PM

      I also believe FIFA will do that! That's why I am hoping that Uruguay gets in the top 8. I am really curious to see if FIFA will "let" 4 SA teams to be seeded!

      Delete
  2. DorianJune 21, 2013 at 6:22 PM

    Thank you, Edgar.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JuanSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:24 PM

    Hello Edgar,

    What are the top 5 combinations of eight teams to be seeded? For instance, I guess Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Italy, Netherlands and Belgium is a combination with a high score. Which is the are the top 5 scoring combinations?

    What are the chances that Belgium AND Croatia are seeded, but not the Netherlands?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarSeptember 6, 2013 at 1:33 PM

      The top 5 have in common: Spain, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Colombia and the Netherlands.

      8.99% Belgium
      5.08% Croatia
      4.27% England
      3.57% Portugal
      3.31% Switzerland

      Croatia and Belgium seeded, but not the Netherlands: 2.37%

      Delete
    2. JuanSeptember 7, 2013 at 9:36 PM

      Thanks for that one!

      Delete
    3. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 11:04 AM

      You're welcome Juan!

      Delete