More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
The September 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the simulations when the decisions will be final.
As of now 5 teams have qualified for the play-offs: Ethiopia, Tunisia, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt and Algeria.
Algeria have pulled out of CHAN and Supersport hinted they might have done this in order to avoid Egypt in the play-off draw. If that is true, it was in vain, as Egypt have only a 15.34% chance of being seeded. We could see another Algeria - Egypt or Côte d'Ivoire - Egypt clash.
Pot 2:
100% - Ethiopia
84.66% - Egypt
74.25% - Senegal
57.33% - Congo
48.96% - Libya
46.99% - Cameroon
37.01% - Tunisia
25.08% - Uganda
11.02% - Zambia
6.41% - Malawi
6.08% - Burkina Faso
2.14% - Gabon
0.07% - Nigeria
Pot 1:
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
93.52% - Nigeria
85.51% - Ghana
62.99% - Tunisia
34.43% - Burkina Faso
15.34% - Egypt
3.86% - Libya
3.47% - Zambia
0.67% - Senegal
0.19% - Cameroon
0.02% - Gabon
Another way to look at this is chances of being seeded if a team qualifies to the final stage:
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
100% - Ghana
99.93% - Nigeria
84.99% - Burkina Faso
62.99% - Tunisia
23.95% - Zambia
15.34% - Egypt
7.31% - Libya
0.93% - Gabon
0.89% - Senegal
0.4% - Cameroon
0% - Ethiopia
0% - Congo
0% - Uganda
0% - Malawi
Edgar,
ReplyDeleteGreat work. Can you separate teams into "if advancing, would have a higher ranking than Egypt"; "if advancing, would have a lower ranking than Egypt"; and "might be ranked higher or lower than Egypt"?
Egypt - unseeded
DeleteSeeded teams:
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
96.22% - Nigeria
89.76% - Ghana
66.47% - Tunisia
39.32% - Burkina Faso
3.9% - Libya
3.33% - Zambia
0.76% - Senegal
0.22% - Cameroon
0.02% - Gabon
Egypt - seeded
Unseeded teams:
100% - Ethiopia
88.98% - Congo
76.4% - Senegal
56.19% - Tunisia
51.5% - Cameroon
44.85% - Libya
33.7% - Zambia
23.4% - Uganda
21.38% - Malawi
3.59% - Gabon
Looking only at the pots:
Above: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Ghana, Burkina Faso
Below: Ethiopia, Congo, Uganda, Malawi
Above/below: Tunisia, Libya, Zambia, Senegal, Cameroon, Gabon
Edgar,
ReplyDeleteGreat work
can you give me the same thing for libya
Here you go Hussein:
DeleteLibya seeded:
Unseeded teams:
100% - Ethiopia
92.23% - Congo
85.49% - Egypt
74.35% - Senegal
59.07% - Tunisia
36.79% - Zambia
25.65% - Uganda
24.09% - Malawi
2.33% - Gabon
Libya unseeded:
Seeded teams:
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
95.14% - Nigeria
87.85% - Ghana
63.24% - Tunisia
36.99% - Burkina Faso
14.05% - Egypt
2.27% - Zambia
0.45% - Senegal
0.02% - Gabon
Looking only at the pots:
Above: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana
Below: Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda
Above/below: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Gabon, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Zambia
egypt will do her best to progress in fifa ranking just to avoid algeria in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteEgypt also depends on the results of other teams.
Deletemy favourite draw and good luck for arab teams and specially ALGERIA
ReplyDeletealgerie - congo ( trained by algerian coach ) :)
tunisia - nigeria
egypte - ethiopie
cote ivoire - senegal
ghana - cameroun