More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
39.68% - Group B
38.46% - Group E
7.69% - Group D
7.23% - Group C
3.47% - Group A
2.17% - Group H
1.16% - Group I
0.14% - Group G
Worst runner-up:
21.59% - Norway
19.06% - Bulgaria
14.19% - Czech Republic
8.77% - Albania
5.48% - Denmark
4.79% - Hungary
4.71% - Slovenia
3.31% - Croatia
2.87% - Republic of Ireland
2.46% - Romania
2.35% - Iceland
2.28% - Sweden
2.08% - Austria
0.98% - France
0.95% - Montenegro
0.66% - Italy
0.52% - Ukraine
0.4% - Cyprus
0.4% - Turkey
0.39% - Poland
0.31% - England
0.27% - Armenia
0.26% - Switzerland
0.21% - Portugal
0.16% - Finland
0.16% - Israel
0.12% - Serbia
0.08% - Greece
0.04% - Lithuania
0.04% - Estonia
0.03% - Belgium
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - Malta
0.01% - Latvia
0.01% - Slovakia
0.01% - Russia
0.01% - Wales
Pot 2:
63.81% - France
41.81% - Romania
39.67% - Ukraine
32.47% - Sweden
31.08% - Hungary
26.02% - Bulgaria
23.52% - Republic of Ireland
23.26% - Greece
17.54% - Norway
16.22% - Austria
14.51% - Montenegro
11.53% - Iceland
9.02% - Russia
8.73% - Israel
7.9% - Albania
7.64% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
5.65% - Czech Republic
5.1% - Poland
4.83% - Switzerland
1.68% - Finland
1.67% - Turkey
1.54% - Slovenia
1.39% - Croatia
1.04% - Denmark
0.6% - Belgium
0.45% - Armenia
0.34% - Cyprus
0.33% - Slovakia
0.33% - England
0.07% - Netherlands
0.07% - Georgia
0.06% - Portugal
0.04% - Italy
0.03% - Estonia
0.02% - Serbia
0.02% - Lithuania
0.01% - Northern Ireland
Pot 1:
76.87% - Portugal
75.98% - Croatia
54.54% - Greece
25.72% - England
24.83% - France
17.97% - Belgium
17.58% - Sweden
17.53% - Czech Republic
15.16% - Romania
14.04% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.35% - Ukraine
10.14% - Norway
8.41% - Spain
5.58% - Albania
4.69% - Italy
4.55% - Russia
4.18% - Denmark
2.33% - Germany
2.23% - Hungary
1.49% - Switzerland
1.14% - Montenegro
0.98% - Slovenia
0.54% - Bulgaria
0.5% - Serbia
0.38% - Israel
0.38% - Republic of Ireland
0.27% - Austria
0.18% - Armenia
0.18% - Netherlands
0.08% - Turkey
0.07% - Wales
0.04% - Finland
0.04% - Iceland
0.03% - Slovakia
0.01% - Poland
0.01% - Cyprus
Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:
100% - Spain
100% - Germany
100% - Wales
99.92% - Portugal
99.15% - Italy
98.73% - England
98.2% - Croatia
96.77% - Belgium
96.15% - Serbia
80.08% - Denmark
75.63% - Czech Republic
72% - Netherlands
70.1% - Greece
64.76% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
41.39% - Albania
38.89% - Slovenia
36.63% - Norway
35.12% - Sweden
33.53% - Russia
28.57% - Armenia
28.01% - France
26.61% - Romania
23.58% - Switzerland
22.25% - Ukraine
8.33% - Slovakia
7.28% - Montenegro
6.69% - Hungary
4.57% - Turkey
4.17% - Israel
2.86% - Cyprus
2.33% - Finland
2.03% - Bulgaria
1.64% - Austria
1.59% - Republic of Ireland
0.35% - Iceland
0.2% - Poland
0% - Georgia
0% - Estonia
0% - Lithuania
0% - Northern Ireland
Many thanks for the wonderful data sets. One small remark though;
ReplyDelete"Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:
72% - Netherlands"
Is that correct? Seems a bit odd for the Dutch to have less of a chance @ being seeded than Denmark, Serbia or the Czech republic.
In order to be involved in the play-offs Netherlands would have to lose games, while the other teams you mentioned would have to win games. Winning qualifiers improves your ranking, losing doesn't. Hope it makes sense.
DeleteAh ok, so "Chances of being seeded [b]if[/b] involved in the play-offs" also takes into account actually getting there (or rather; the subsequent ranking loss inherent to having to lose a certain number of games to be involved in the playoffs)?
ReplyDeleteThat would explain why Wales has a 100% chance (albeit the other way round, requiring them to win all their games to get there, and gaining rating), and why Germany and Spain have 100% chances, meaning even if they lost all their games from now until October, they'd still be seeded because their rank would still suffice anyway.
Thanks for the explanation! Apologies for misinterpreting the "if" part as in "disregarding all factors leading up to that point".
Yes, it takes into account the ranking changes.
DeleteNo need to apologize. You're welcome.
I still find it incredible that Wales would have 100% chance, even after winning everything... But that's FIFA rankings for you :)
ReplyDeletenot that incredible if you look at it:
DeleteIf Wales ends up second, that has to mean Wales wins everything AND Croatia doesn't win once. That means Belgium AND Croatia are out of the playoffs and can't be seeded.
I get your point, Wales go on a massive run and Croatia are out. I mean, if you look at the likely runners up like Greece, Portugal, France, maybe Sweden or Montenegro and you would have to think Wales on a run could perhaps get in that mix, especially if they are beating Belguims, Serbias and Croatias to do it
DeleteI'm wondering which sides will get ahead of France to keep them unseeded as that is the most interesting part of this analysis it seems. Russia/Portugal, Croatia/Belgium but who's left ... Greece, Czech Republic, maybe England
ReplyDeleteRussia, Croatia and Greece are going to be seeded, and perhaps Ukraine in front of France.
DeleteWhen France are unseeded, the seeds will come from:
Delete95.75% - Group A
85.72% - Group F
74.44% - Group G
44.41% - Group H
31.99% - Group B
25.14% - Group C
21.6% - Group E
20.95% - Group D
By team:
80.58% - Portugal
77.09% - Croatia
58.96% - Greece
29.89% - England
21.58% - Sweden
20.76% - Czech Republic
18.1% - Romania
18.05% - Belgium
15.44% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.15% - Ukraine
11.99% - Norway
6.74% - Albania
5.47% - Italy
4.92% - Denmark
4.75% - Russia
2.74% - Germany
2.66% - Hungary
1.66% - Switzerland
1.36% - Montenegro
1.16% - Slovenia
0.6% - Bulgaria
0.55% - Serbia
0.5% - Republic of Ireland
0.39% - Israel
0.31% - Austria
0.24% - Armenia
0.16% - Netherlands
0.06% - Wales
0.05% - Iceland
0.05% - Slovakia
0.03% - Turkey
0.02% - Poland
By Russia I mean Portugal, of course. :D
DeleteHi. Please tell how many chances has Ukraine to take 1st place in group?
ReplyDeleteHi Denis,
Delete32.11% - 1st, 51.79% - 2nd, 14.29% - 3rd, 1.81% - 4th.
Group H is indeed an interesting group...
ReplyDeleteThis is the current standing in the group, taking into account everyone will win vs. San Marino:
Ukraine 8 17
Montenegro 7 14
England 6 12
Poland 7 12
Moldova 8 8
San Marino 10 0
remaining games:
6 sept:
England - Moldova
Poland - Montenegro
10 sept:
Ukraine - England
11 oct:
England - Montenegro
Ukraine - Poland
15 oct:
Montenegro - Moldova
England - Poland