The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
Switzerland replace Israel in the second pot.
Best movers:
7 - Finland
4 - Armenia and Scotland
3 - Ukraine and Belgium
Worst movers:
-5 - Hungary and Latvia
-4 - Denmark
-3 - Estonia and Wales
Most points gained:
2025 - Finland
1300 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1280 - Ukraine
1260 - Republic of Ireland and Armenia
Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points
1 1 Spain 37533 2 2 Germany 36345 3 3 Netherlands 34321 4 4 Italy 32103 5 5 England 30705 6 7 Portugal 30551 7 6 Croatia 29821 8 8 Russia 28786 9 9 Greece 28700 ------------------------------- 10 10 Bosnia-Herzegovina 27735 11 11 Sweden 27608 12 15 Ukraine 26371 13 16 Belgium 25872 14 14 Czech Republic 25794 15 17 Republic of Ireland 25593 16 12 Denmark 25499 17 19 Switzerland 25491 18 13 Hungary 25482 ------------------------------- 19 18 Israel 24282 20 20 Norway 23801 21 21 Slovakia 23752 22 22 Serbia 23044 23 23 Montenegro 22711 24 24 Turkey 22214 25 26 Austria 22172 26 27 Slovenia 22134 27 25 Romania 22021 ------------------------------- 28 28 Poland 20844 29 36 Finland 20601 30 34 Armenia 20041 31 35 Scotland 19813 32 29 Estonia 19748 33 31 Belarus 19721 34 32 Bulgaria 19231 35 30 Latvia 19211 36 33 Wales 19011 ------------------------------- 37 37 Albania 18811 38 38 Northern Ireland 17681 39 39 Lithuania 16586 40 40 Iceland 16556 41 41 Georgia 16341 42 42 FYR Macedonia 16276 43 43 Moldova 15861 44 44 Azerbaijan 14861 45 45 Cyprus 13956 ------------------------------- 46 46 Luxembourg 13030 47 47 Kazakhstan 12401 48 48 Liechtenstein 12380 49 49 Faroe Islands 11490 50 50 Malta 10960 51 51 Andorra 8820 52 52 San Marino 7900 53 53 Gibraltar 0
bosnia will replace greece in pot 1
ReplyDeleteThis is indeed possible, but unfortunately not very probable... Of course, in case Bosnia tops the group, then it will all hang on how Greece does in the Payoffs! Fingers crossed though, not impossible...
DeleteNo way.
DeleteBosnia will lose Points against Slovakia, and Greece will win all his 4 games against Liechtenstein(2x), Lettland and Slovakia at home.
England are predicted to drop out of the top 9 in Europe in the FIFA ranking. Fortunately, they are still comfortable here.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how that drop is going to be received.
this looks different from what I saw from this website http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html
ReplyDeleteEdgar has already said somewhere that he assumes all nonplayed matches to be losses. Hence the difference, which will even out after November snd UEFA playoffs...
DeleteIf that's what's been said then that's not quite correct. The calculation I make makes no assumptions about matches that have not yet been played. Rather than make assumptions the code actually takes the average for the matches that have been played. So if a team has only played 6 out of 10 matches, then the average is taken to be that from the points gained in those 6 matches divided by 6, and not by 10.
DeleteI don't think he counts them as losses. The non-played games in the case of Belgium are counted as 10000 points (the standard points every team get).
DeleteHomer, taking the average is also an assumption: you assume the team in question will gain the same points as the average of the previous games.
In every case, you have to make assumptions... there' s no guarantee.
Hey, I just relay what Edgar said http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/euro-2016-qualifying-draw-seeding-based.html
DeleteMaybe he just put 10000, which would make more sense, like a 'goalless loss' he he
Hi Jeroen,
DeleteFirst of all, I am the author of that website, so I can say 100% for sure the calculation does not count losses, I've checked and double-checked the code.
Taking an average is how the calculation is performed by UEFA, albeit this is how they calculate the ranking AFTER the qualifying competition has finished. They don't define how the calculation should be performed while the competition is still in progress. Taking the average is what my calculation does also, but rather than taking the average of 10 matches, as in their calculation, or 8 for the Spain/France group, I take the average of how ever many matches are played to a particular point in time.
In that explanation taking the average is not making any assumptions, it is merely calculating fact up until that point in time. The calculation is up to a certain point in time, and it is not making a prediction for a point in time in the future, nor is it making assumptions about how it will look in the future.
If you want to read the calculation as how it will look in the future, then that's making assumptions by doing that, but that's not how it is intended. That would be the reader's assumption. Hope that makes sense.
Homer, i wasn't referring to your site when i was talking about losses, neither was vedadpasic. We were both referring to this site. Edgar counts the non-played games as 10000 points. You just take the average as if those games don't count.
DeleteThere is no definition by UEFA about how to calculate the ranking "on the fly", since it doesn't matter to them.
Your calculation makes the assumption these games are (as of today) irrelevant, which is an assumption wich is equivalent in quality like counting them as 10000 points. Both are not what regulation says, but are different types of interpretation.
You seem to consider your method of calculation is like the ranking is today, but there is no "ranking of today", only the eventual ranking.
So stop worrying about your ranking. It contains valuable information of the situation if the teams continue playing like they are doing now, while Edgar looks at the "minimum" points.
I tend to combine your ranking with Edgars ranking to see (about) how low f.i. Belgium may fall in (allmost) worst case scenario.
> You just take the average as if those games don't count.
Delete> Your calculation makes the assumption these games are (as of today) irrelevant ... but are different types of interpretation.
Sorry, but I think this is your interpretation. Only if you consider it to look into the future would I agree with you, but that's just not the case. I think the misunderstanding is because this post is about making predictions. The ranking I publish on my site does not consider anything in the future, and as I wrote the code please just accept that I do not and did not intend it to make any predictions or assumptions about the future. The only assumption it makes is that the qualifying competition has ended.
> You seem to consider your method of calculation is like the ranking is today, but there is no "ranking of today", only the eventual ranking.
Exactly, it is my interpretation.
I have added a note to the page which I hope clarifies matters:
NOTE 2: This ranking is based on a calculation that assumes that the qualifying competition has already ended on the given date. It does not make, nor intend for any assumptions nor predictions regarding future matches to be made.
that's solved :).
DeleteThese are predictions "worst/best" case scenario for the final ranking.
Worst = all remaining games are lost by 4-0
Best = all remaining games are won by 4-0
(ranking by best ranking)
01 Germany 36024,88 41465,52
02 Spain 35362,72 39443,2
03 Netherlands 34000,8 39441,44
04 Italy 31782,68 37223,32
05 Portugal 30630,88 36071,52
06 England 30385,04 35825,68
07 Russia 28385,72 35186,52
08 Greece 28380,28 33820,92
09 Croatia 29581,6 33662,08
10 Bos & Herc. 27415,32 32855,96
11 Sweden 27287,84 32728,48
12 Ukraine 26051,2 31491,84
13 Czech Rep. 25474,24 30914,88
14 Ireland 25272,68 30713,32
15 Denmark 25179,24 30619,88
16 Switzerland 25171,32 30611,96
17 Hungary 25161,52 30602,16
18 Belgium 25631,52 29712
19 France 25511,52 29592
20 Israel 23961,4 29402,04
21 Norway 23481,08 28921,72
22 Slovakia 23432,48 28873,12
23 Turkey 21894,08 27334,72
24 Austria 21851,6 27292,24
25 Slovenia 21814,32 27254,96
26 Romania 21701 27141,64
27 Serbia 22804,16 26884,64
28 Montenegro 22471,16 26551,64
29 Poland 20523,68 25964,32
30 Armenia 19721,24 25161,88
31 Estonia 19427,52 24868,16
32 Bulgaria 18910,84 24351,48
33 Latvia 18891,04 24331,68
34 Wales 18690,84 24131,48
35 N. Ireland 17280,72 24081,52
36 Albania 18490,88 23931,52
37 Scotland 19573,36 23653,84
38 Finland 18961,16 23041,64
39 Lithuania 16265,56 21706,2
40 Iceland 16235,92 21676,56
41 Macedonia 15955,72 21396,36
42 Belarus 18390,96 21111,28
43 Moldova 15620,76 19701,24
44 Cyprus 13635,56 19076,2
45 Georgia 14920,72 19001,2
46 Azerbaijan 14620,52 18701
47 Luxembourg 12710,12 18150,76
48 Kazakhstan 12080,68 17521,32
49 Liechtenst. 12060,12 17500,76
50 Faroe Isl. 11170,68 16611,32
51 Malta 10640,08 16080,72
52 Andorra 8500 13940,64
53 San Marino 7580 13020,64
For the record, UEFA now round the ranking up/down to the nearest whole number. At some stage they only rounded down, but at least for the 2013 "version" they now use "proper" rounding. I'm fine with it though if this is your interpretation! ;-)
DeleteHi Raoul, good to see you again around here! :)
DeleteHi would someone be able to tell me if Scotland came 3rd in their world cup qualfying group would they automatically get pot3 for these qualifiers and since the euro's now has 24 teams from 2016 onwards, will the top3 from each qualifying group go thorugh?
ReplyDeleteAnswers to your questions:
Delete1. No, ending 3rd in WC qualifiying group doesn't necessarily mean that the will be in pot 3 for the EURO qualifiers. To be in pot 3 they will have to keep an eye on all the countries places below them.
2. It depends strongly which format will be used to determine the countries that qualify for EURO2016. If they use the format with 9 qualifying groups, the best nr. 3 will be automatically qualified for the main event, with the remaining 8 nrs. 3 facing a play-off for the 4 remaining spots. Any other format will see other scenarios for the nrs. 3 to go through.
It's about Ws, Ds and Ls in the European coefficient, not positions. Goals scored and conceded also play a minor role.
DeleteTobcoach, Lorric - thanks!
DeleteAnyone have an updated coefficients list after yesterday's matches?
ReplyDeleteThanks
This comment has been removed by the author.
Delete1 ESP 39083
ReplyDelete2 GER 38865
3 NED 35961
4 ITA 34543
5 ENG 32385
6 POR 31791
7 RUS 31266
8 GRE 31140
9 CRO 30221
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10 SWE 30048
11 BIH 28935
12 UKR 28152
13 DEN 27939
14 SUI 27131
15 BEL 27112
16 HUN 26702
17 CZE 25754
18 IRL 25553
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19 NOR 25001
20 SVK 24952
21 TUR 24755
22 SRB 24704
23 ISR 24642
24 SVN 24595
25 AUT 23332
26 ROU 23241
27 MNE 23111
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28 POL 22524
29 FIN 22076
30 ARM 21241
31 SCO 20993
32 BUL 20431
33 LVA 20411
34 EST 20068
35 BLR 19671
36 WAL 18931
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37 NIR 18841
38 ALB 18771
39 ISL 18176
40 LTU 17806
41 MKD 17476
42 GEO 16816
43 MDA 15781
44 AZE 15261
45 LUX 14190
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46 CYP 13876
47 KAZ 13601
48 LIE 12320
49 FRO 11410
50 MLT 10920
51 AND 8680
52 SMR 7640
------------
FRA 29622
Regular qualifying matches not yet played count for 10000 points.
Thanks Ed!
DeleteDoes Bosnia have any chance to be in the first POT for the draw?
ReplyDeleteSuppose Bosnia defeats their opponents twice by 5-0, the coefficient would be 31536. So, yes, it's possible, but not very likely, since other teams have quite a good margin.
DeleteAbout 11%.
DeleteSee here.