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Friday, June 28, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking of 4 July.

Only 4 matches left: the final and 3rd place final of the Confederations Cup, Swaziland - Angola (CHAN qualifier - considered friendly) and Grenada - Dominica (friendly).

This is how the points could change for the 8 teams involved:

Spain (L: 1532, PSO L: 1566, PSO W: 1599, W: 1633)
Italy (L: 1078, PSO L: 1110, PSO W: 1142, W: 1174)
Brazil (L: 1005, PSO L: 1035, PSO W: 1065, W: 1095)
Uruguay (L: 980, PSO L: 1016, PSO W: 1052, W: 1088)
Angola (L: 368, D: 372, W: 380)
Grenada (L: 264, D: 273, W: 291)
Dominica (L: 124, D: 137, W: 164)
Swaziland (L: 60, D: 75, W: 107)
In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, thus even if they lose, their totals won't drop, although their ranking could.

England (at best 14th) will be out of the top 10 for the first time since October 2008.

Greece will overtake England for the first time since June 2008.
Belgium will overtake them for the first time since June 1995 - when England were playing only friendlies as hosts of EURO 1996.
Bosnia-Herzegovina will overtake them for the first time ever.

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

United Arab Emirates (85 - 83 in November 2006) - 6 years and 8 months
Ethiopia (95 - 89 in May 2008) - 5 years and 2 months
Costa Rica (39 - 39 in September 2009) - 3 years and 10 months
Kyrgyzstan (137 - 137 in October 2009) - 3 years and 9 months
Malta (133 - 133 in September 2008) - 4 years and 10 months
Mauritius (182 - 177 in July 2010) - 3 years
Ukraine (28 - 26 in September 2010) - 2 years and 10 months
Finland (65 - 64 in September 2010) - 2 years and 10 months
New Zealand (55 - 51 in October 2010) - 2 years and 9 months
Pakistan (167 - 167 in November 2010) - 2 years and 8 months
USA (22 - 22 in May 2011) - 2 years and 2 months
Maldives (at least 155 - 151 in June 2011) - 2 years and 1 month

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Paraguay (48 - 63 in July 1996) - 17 years
Kazakhstan (150 - 161 in May 1997) - 16 years and 2 months
Turkey (57 - 57 in December 1998) - 14 years and 7 months
Gambia (at most 164 - 166 in May 2006) - 7 years and 2 months
Slovakia (63 - 67 in September 2008) - 4 years and 10 months
England (at most 14 - 14 in October 2008) - 4 years and 9 months
Faroe Islands (at most 174 - 185 in March 2009) - 4 years and 4 months
Republic of Ireland (44 - 44 in March 2010) - 3 years and 4 months
Japan (37 - 45 in May 2010) - 3 years and 2 months
France (23 - 27 in September 2010) - 2 years and 10 months
St. Kitts and Nevis (139 - 151 in September 2010) - 2 years and 10 months
Antigua and Barbuda (at most 122 - 131 in October 2010) - 2 years and 9 months
Jamaica (77 - 82 in November 2010) - 2 years and 8 months
Morocco (79 - 79 in December 2010) - 2 years and 7 months
Qatar (112 - 112 in December 2010) - 2 years and 7 months
Sweden (31 - 33 in January 2011) - 2 years and 6 months
Libya (70 - 71 in March 2011) - 2 years and 4 months
Denmark (27 - 27 in May 2011) - 2 years and 2 months
Zimbabwe (114 - 126 in May 2011) - 2 years and 2 months
Papua New Guinea (197 - 203 in June 2011) - 2 years and 1 month
Russia (17 - 17 in July 2011) - 2 years



Central Africa Republic (-30) and FYR Macedonia will have their worst ever move.

Senegal (25), Scotland (24), Austria (22), Finland (19), Brazil (9) and South Sudan (2) will have their best climbs ever.

Best movers:

25 - Senegal
24 - Scotland and Guinea
23 - Cape Verde Islands, Armenia and Malta

Worst movers:

-30 - Central African Republic
-28 - Jamaica
-16 - Tahiti

Best movers in the top 50:

24 - Scotland
23 - Cape Verde Islands
11 - Peru and Ukraine

Worst movers in the top 50:

-28 - Jamaica
-11 - Zambia
-8 - Ecuador and Panama

If both Brazil and Uruguay lose their matches without reaching PSO, Côte d'Ivoire will climb to 11th - new best ever ranking. If only one of these results go their way, the Ivorians will be 12th, thus equaling their best ever ranking, achieved in February 2013.

If Grenada defeat Dominica, Latvia will fall to 120th - their worst ranking ever.

Nine teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Colombia (3 - 4 in December 1996)
Belgium (between 10 and 9 - 12 in June 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (between 14 and 13 - 15 in June 2013)
Peru (19 - 25 in July 2011)
Albania (37 - 43 in May 2013)
Cape Verde Islands (49 - 51 in October 2012)
Dominican Republic (90 - 92 in November 2012)
Tajikistan (106 - 112 in April 2013)
Guam (between 177 and 176 - 178 in October 2012)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

Venezuela (36 - 36 in April 2013)
Timor-Leste (182 - 182 in December 2012)

One team will return to its worst ever ranking:

Poland (75 - 75 in March 2012)

Four teams will drop to new lows:

Fiji (191 - 182 in June 2013)
Cambodia (198 - 192 in July 2012)
Seychelles (200 - 199 in July 2011)
Cook Islands (204 - 202 in April 2009)

July 2013 rank - Team - July 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1532 0 -82
2 Germany 1273 0 -143
3 Colombia 1206 4 83
4 Argentina 1204 -1 -83
5 Netherlands 1180 0 22
6 Portugal 1099 0 -38
7 Croatia 1098 -3 -124
8 Belgium 1079 4 44
9 Italy 1078 -1 -19
10 Greece 1038 6 32
11 Côte d'Ivoire 1009 2 -13
12 Brazil 1005 10 133
13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 995 2 -13
14 England 994 -5 -101
15 Switzerland 987 -1 -23
16 Uruguay 980 3 67
17 Russia 979 -6 -80
18 Ecuador 932 -8 -134
19 Peru 898 11 107
20 Mexico 880 -3 -48
21 Chile 872 4 31
22 USA 865 6 67
23 France 838 -5 -84
24 Ghana 830 -3 -57
25 Norway 801 4 7
26 Czech Republic 797 -2 -56
27 Denmark 788 -7 -102
28 Mali 774 -5 -95
28 Montenegro 774 -3 -67
28 Ukraine 774 11 87
31 Sweden 765 -4 -65
32 Hungary 749 1 -10
33 Romania 732 1 -18
34 Algeria 730 1 -7
35 Nigeria 724 -4 -61
36 Venezuela 704 1 -8
37 Albania 689 1 -1
37 Japan 689 -5 -76
39 Costa Rica 688 9 71
40 Australia 671 7 52
41 Serbia 661 -5 -62
42 Burkina Faso 656 9 62
43 Korea Republic 642 -3 -24
44 Republic of Ireland 639 -3 -20
45 Slovenia 634 10 66
46 Wales 630 -1 -8
47 Tunisia 627 -5 -25
48 Paraguay 622 -4 -18
49 Cape Verde Islands 620 23 134
50 Scotland 610 24 129
51 Panama 601 -8 -48
52 Bulgaria 596 -6 -32
52 Iran 596 15 90
54 Austria 595 22 126
55 Honduras 582 -3 0
55 New Zealand 582 2 31
57 Turkey 573 -3 0
58 Uzbekistan 563 0 13
59 South Africa 558 1 16
60 Zambia 554 -11 -48
61 Guinea 545 24 107
62 Egypt 543 9 52
63 Slovakia 542 -7 -23
64 Israel 540 -2 0
65 Finland 537 19 95
66 Armenia 534 23 126
67 Equatorial Guinea 532 -3 9
68 Bolivia 528 -15 -50
69 Haiti 522 -6 -16
70 Libya 518 -1 20
71 Cameroon 517 -6 0
72 Togo 511 1 28
73 Iceland 499 -12 -42
74 Senegal 497 25 131
75 Poland 493 -10 -24
76 Jordan 489 -1 17
77 Jamaica 484 -28 -118
78 Belarus 482 -11 -24
79 Morocco 470 -2 7
80 Uganda 466 13 65
81 Gabon 459 1 15
82 Cuba 458 9 52
83 Sierra Leone 443 -13 -54
84 Congo DR 434 -5 -20
85 United Arab Emirates 432 2 8
86 Estonia 423 3 15
87 Trinidad and Tobago 419 -6 -28
88 Canada 413 -5 -30
89 Central African Republic 398 -30 -145
90 Congo 396 -10 -56
90 Dominican Republic 396 4 0
92 FYR Macedonia 395 -14 -65
93 Guatemala 388 -5 -22
94 El Salvador 382 -8 -47
95 Ethiopia 381 11 53
96 New Caledonia 377 1 6
97 Georgia 369 -1 -22
98 Angola 368 -7 -38
99 Oman 361 2 10
100 China PR 339 -5 -54
101 Iraq 335 -3 -35
102 Mozambique 326 1 -23
103 Liberia 324 -3 -32
104 Lithuania 321 1 -9
105 Saudi Arabia 315 3 -8
106 Tajikistan 314 6 2
107 Niger 313 0 -12
108 Malawi 312 1 -5
109 Suriname 311 4 0
110 Kuwait 309 1 -6
111 Northern Ireland 307 5 3
112 Korea DPR 306 2 -3
112 Qatar 306 -8 -32
114 Zimbabwe 304 -12 -46
115 Benin 302 0 -6
116 Botswana 301 11 56
117 Azerbaijan 298 1 7
118 Bahrain 286 -1 -6
119 Latvia 280 0 -7
120 Burundi 273 5 17
121 Tanzania 271 -12 -46
122 Antigua and Barbuda 265 -1 -15
123 Grenada 264 1 -2
123 Kenya 264 0 -4
125 Cyprus 256 -3 -13
125 Moldova 256 9 26
127 Namibia 252 -7 -29
128 Guyana 250 -2 1
129 Lebanon 246 2 13
130 Belize 242 -1 3
131 Puerto Rico 241 -3 0
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 -2 0
133 Malta 236 23 88
134 Rwanda 233 1 9
134 Sudan 233 1 9
136 Turkmenistan 232 -4 0
137 Kyrgyzstan 227 6 21
138 Thailand 223 4 14
139 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 -2 0
140 Afghanistan 214 0 4
141 Luxembourg 210 4 24
141 St. Lucia 210 -1 0
143 Syria 205 -5 -10
144 Philippines 203 0 0
145 Vietnam 182 -12 -49
146 India 178 1 0
147 Barbados 175 2 0
148 Hong Kong 173 -1 -5
148 Liechtenstein 173 10 28
150 Kazakhstan 172 -4 -8
151 Palestine 167 0 5
152 Bangladesh 166 0 5
153 Aruba 163 -3 0
154 Maldives 147 3 1
154 Tahiti 147 -16 -68
156 Singapore 146 9 12
157 Bermuda 139 4 0
158 Nicaragua 138 4 0
159 Malaysia 136 0 -8
160 Chad 134 -6 -18
161 Lesotho 133 -8 -23
162 Solomon Islands 132 4 2
163 Myanmar 129 -8 -20
164 Gambia 126 -2 -12
165 Dominica 124 2 0
166 Sao Tome e Principe 120 -7 -24
167 Pakistan 114 1 -4
168 Indonesia 112 2 -4
169 Nepal 106 2 -2
170 Yemen 96 3 0
171 Sri Lanka 95 1 -4
172 Mauritania 94 2 0
173 Laos 87 -5 -31
174 Faroe Islands 81 -12 -57
175 Chinese Taipei 77 0 -13
176 Guam 70 2 5
177 Montserrat 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 0 0
179 Swaziland 60 -1 -5
180 Guinea-Bissau 58 1 -4
181 Bahamas 53 -5 -13
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 3 0
182 Mauritius 52 3 0
182 Timor-Leste 52 3 0
185 Madagascar 51 -1 -4
186 Mongolia 49 -4 -12
187 Samoa 46 1 0
187 US Virgin Islands 46 6 7
189 Tonga 43 1 -1
189 Vanuatu 43 2 0
191 Comoros 41 1 0
191 Fiji 41 -9 -20
193 British Virgin Islands 34 2 0
194 Cayman Islands 33 2 0
195 American Samoa 30 2 0
196 Eritrea 24 2 0
197 Papua New Guinea 23 -3 -15
198 Cambodia 20 -9 -25
198 South Sudan 20 2 0
200 Seychelles 19 -1 -3
201 Somalia 14 1 0
202 Macau 12 0 -2
203 Djibouti 11 1 0
204 Cook Islands 9 -3 -7
205 Andorra 8 0 0
206 Anguilla 3 0 -1
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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22 comments:

  1. budejajaJune 28, 2013 at 11:16 AM

    on the fifa web site

    Libya will be 527 not 518

    i think they have a mistake

    ReplyDelete
  2. Andrew SidhomJune 28, 2013 at 9:33 PM

    Edgar, I've had this question for some time now about the FIFA rankings. Hope you can clear it up for me. It's long to explain but the answer should be simple (I hope. If I'm clear enough).

    Since rankings are not published on the same day of the month each time... and sometimes, say the March ranking of 2014 for example comes out on a different month day than the March 2015 ranking, that means we don't have ordinary 30-or-31-days months as game points are added from one ranking publication to the next. So my question was: In the calculations of yearly averages, do they count 12 "FIFA months" (variable # of days in each) ?? In that case they'd simply shift one block of results (a "FIFA month") from Year 4 (current) to Year 3 (previous), another from Year 3 to Year 2, etc. Or do they count 12 ordinary months (=365 days) with each rankings release backwards from the rankings release date?

    Am I making any sense at all??
    Thanks in advance anyway.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJune 28, 2013 at 10:06 PM

      Simply,backward one year for each release date for each interval. e.g 4july2013 to 4july2012, then 4july2012 to 4july2011.

      Tarek/jordan

      Delete
    2. Andrew SidhomJuly 1, 2013 at 12:49 PM

      Thanks Tarek. Much appreciated info.
      Edgar, a little confirmation next weekend wouldn't hurt. Thanks.

      Delete
    3. EdgarJuly 5, 2013 at 11:28 AM

      Hi Andrew,

      Yes, Tarek is right.

      Delete
  3. JeroenJune 29, 2013 at 8:58 AM

    Edgar, Belgium can't reach 8th place, neither can they reach 11th place. Either Uruguay or Italy will be above/below Belgium in the ranking.

    CRT TEAM PNTS JUN JUN MIN MAX EXPLANATION
    1 Spain 1532 0 -82 1 1 never drops
    2 Germany 1273 0 -143 2 2 never drops
    3 Colombia 1206 4 83 3 3 never drops
    4 Argentina 1204 -1 -83 4 4 never drops
    5 Netherlands 1180 0 22 5 5 never drops
    6 Portugal 1099 0 -38 7 6 drops 1 place if Italy doesn't lose
    7 Croatia 1098 -3 -124 8 7 drops 1 place if Italy doesn't lose
    8 Belgium 1079 4 44 10 8 drops 1 place for sure, 2 places if Brazil wins (without penalty shoot out)
    9 Italy 1078 -1 -19 11 6 can reach place 6, drops 2 places at max (Brazil win, Uruguay win)
    10 Greece 1038 6 32 12 10 can drop 2 places: one if Uruguay wins, one if Brazil wins (either PSO or regular)
    11 Côte d'Ivoire 1009 2 -13 13 11 drops 2 places if Uruguay or Brazil draws/wins
    12 Brazil 1005 10 133 13 8 can reach place 8, drops 1 place if Uruguay has a better result (win vs draw, ...)
    13 Bosnia-Herz. 995 2 -13 14 13 drops 1 place unless Uruguay doesn't draw/win.
    14 England 994 -5 -101 15 14 drops 1 place unless Uruguay doesn't draw/win.
    15 Switzerland 987 -1 -23 16 15 drops 1 place unless Uruguay doesn't draw/win.
    16 Uruguay 980 3 67 17 8 can reach place 8

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 5, 2013 at 11:29 AM

      Thank Jeroen.

      This was based on min/max points only - not looking at the various scenarios.

      Delete
  4. AlexJuly 1, 2013 at 6:38 PM

    FIFA just put out a press release today regarding Ethiopia's WCQ against Botswana, in which Ethiopia fielded a player with two yellow cards. FIFA's awarding the match 3-0 to Botswana even though Ethiopia won 2-1. Will this be reflected in the July 2013 rankings? I thought I remembered reading somewhere that FIFA's rankings deadline was the preceding Thursday. If not, Ethiopia would have about 352 points and be ranked 99th or so. Ironically enough, they'd be roughly level on points with Botswana, who would gain about 50 points from the FIFA ruling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 5, 2013 at 11:39 AM

      The sanctions for Ethiopia and Togo are not yet final and binding.

      Delete
    2. UnknownJuly 7, 2013 at 12:08 PM

      Now that the sanctions have been finalized and the rankings are already out, is Botswana and Cameroon going to get their ranking points in the next FIFA ranking(August)? Are the sanctioned teams going to lose points?

      Delete
    3. EdgarJuly 12, 2013 at 9:40 AM

      Isaac, the results have been changed now and they will be reflected in the August ranking. Obviously, the sanctioned teams will lose points.

      Delete
  5. TobcoachJuly 2, 2013 at 6:55 PM

    Spain on 1532 points, eh? I have them on 1542. FIFA-site shows same points per game as I have. Does this have anything to do with previous games being removed (and thus the ranking points and overall rankings being adjusted, or is it something else?

    Mind you, I have the same problem with 13 other countries, and I don't want to want until Thursday to get any sort of explanation by FIFA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RyanJuly 2, 2013 at 7:30 PM

      I show 1532 as well. Where do you have the 7/3/10 Paraguay match? My guess it is in the wrong year.

      Delete
    2. TobcoachJuly 3, 2013 at 8:45 AM

      Offcourse. Careless to miss something as simple as that. QF of WorldCup between PAR and ESP should be in the same timeframe as the other 3 QF's. Thanks Ryan!!

      But still 12 countries to investigate.

      Ah well, it's almost Thursday and when the official list comes out, the search as to where those differences come from can begin.

      Delete
    3. Andrew SidhomJuly 5, 2013 at 11:19 AM

      So where are/should the quarterfinals be counted? The 2010 to 2011 year right? Or is it 2009 to 2010?

      Delete
  6. AnonymousJuly 3, 2013 at 6:44 PM

    In my calculations Italy will reach 1122 Points (after having won against Uruguay in PSO).

    The only way i get 1142 Points is when i set M=3 for the match against England in the quarterfinal of the european Championship, which Italy won after PSO too, which makes M=2.

    Maybe i'm wrong, but as far as i checked everything seems fine. Unless winning PSO in a European Competition is as winning in regular play-time

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 5, 2013 at 11:42 AM

      Italy have 1142, there must be something wrong with your calculations.

      Delete
  7. JeroenJuly 6, 2013 at 9:54 PM

    another problem:
    Norway's ranking is messed up, i seem to have a problem with the latest year. These are my points, someone who can help me?

    15/08/2012 Greece 0
    07/09/2012 Iceland 0
    11/09/2012 Slovenia 1320
    12/10/2012 Switz. 462,5
    16/10/2012 Cyprus 697,5
    14/11/2012 Hungary 510
    08/01/2013 S.Africa 315,27
    06/02/2013 Ukraine 0
    22/03/2013 Albania 0
    07/06/2013 Albania 405
    11/06/2013 Macedonia 366

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TobcoachJuly 8, 2013 at 1:05 PM

      I believe it has something to do with the SAF game. The only way to get the same average points for the last timeframe as FIFA has, is to give Norway 390,6 points for that game.

      That would mean SAF should have been 60th on the FIFA-ranking list of December 2012. They weren't but it's the only way to get the points right.

      I discovered it when searching for the difference in Norways points in January 2013, so for me it's the only explanation possible. Unless somebody else has a more logical explanation.

      Delete
    2. RyanJuly 8, 2013 at 7:17 PM

      Tobcoach, you are right about this match. It disappeared from the rankings and then reappeared at some point (I think it was the spring, but I might be recalling wrong). When the match reappeared, South Africa was ranked 60th in keeping with typical FIFA methods, that was used.

      Delete
    3. MauroJuly 12, 2013 at 8:29 AM

      Jeroen, thank you for sharing your excel file, it´s a wonderful work of yours!

      Delete