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Friday, June 7, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking

Next update: most likely 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.



At least one team will improve its ranking:

Guam (177 - 178 in October 2012)

At least one team will return to its best ever ranking:

Timor-Leste (182 - 182 in December 2012)

At least four teams will drop to new lows:

Fiji (191 - 182 in June 2013)
Cambodia (198 - 192 in July 2012)
Seychelles (200 - 199 in July 2011)
Cook Islands (204 - 202 in April 2009)

Probable July 2013 rank - Team - Probable July 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1635 0 21
2 Argentina 1273 1 -14
2 Germany 1273 0 -143
4 Croatia 1212 0 -10
5 Netherlands 1180 0 22
6 Colombia 1157 1 34
7 Italy 1093 1 -4
8 Belgium 1079 4 44
9 Portugal 1064 -3 -73
10 Greece 1038 6 32
11 Brazil 1035 11 163
12 England 994 -3 -101
13 Switzerland 987 1 -23
14 Russia 979 -3 -80
15 Ecuador 970 -5 -96
16 Bosnia-Herzegovina 958 -1 -50
17 Côte d'Ivoire 954 -4 -68
18 Mexico 951 -1 23
19 Uruguay 870 0 -43
20 USA 865 8 67
21 Denmark 857 -1 -33
22 Sweden 842 5 12
23 France 838 -5 -84
24 Mali 833 -1 -36
25 Montenegro 825 0 -16
26 Peru 819 4 28
27 Chile 807 -2 -34
28 Norway 801 1 7
29 Czech Republic 797 -5 -56
30 Ghana 795 -9 -92
31 Nigeria 774 0 -11
32 Hungary 749 1 -10
32 Venezuela 749 5 37
34 Korea Republic 737 6 71
35 Romania 732 -1 -18
36 Tunisia 703 6 51
37 Albania 689 1 -1
37 Japan 689 -5 -76
39 Ukraine 686 0 -1
40 Algeria 680 -5 -57
41 Australia 671 6 52
42 Costa Rica 666 6 49
42 Paraguay 666 2 26
44 Serbia 661 -8 -62
45 Republic of Ireland 639 -4 -20
46 Wales 630 -1 -8
47 Burkina Faso 623 4 29
48 Cape Verde Islands 620 24 134
49 Panama 601 -6 -48
50 South Africa 599 10 57
51 Bulgaria 596 -5 -32
52 Honduras 582 0 0
52 New Zealand 582 5 31
54 Zambia 574 -5 -28
55 Turkey 573 -1 0
56 Slovakia 567 0 2
57 Libya 565 12 67
58 Slovenia 564 -3 -4
59 Uzbekistan 563 -1 13
60 Cameroon 547 5 30
61 Guinea 545 24 107
62 Egypt 543 9 52
63 Iceland 540 -2 -1
63 Israel 540 -1 0
65 Finland 537 19 95
66 Bolivia 528 -13 -50
67 Iran 527 0 21
68 Poland 521 -3 4
69 Gabon 516 13 72
70 Haiti 509 -7 -29
71 Jordan 489 4 17
72 Jamaica 484 -23 -118
73 Belarus 482 -6 -24
74 Morocco 470 3 7
75 Togo 467 -2 -16
76 Uganda 466 17 65
77 Equatorial Guinea 464 -13 -59
78 Scotland 463 -4 -18
79 Cuba 458 12 52
80 Austria 451 -4 -18
81 United Arab Emirates 432 6 8
82 Estonia 431 7 23
83 Central African Republic 429 -24 -114
84 Armenia 425 5 17
85 Trinidad and Tobago 419 -4 -28
86 Canada 413 -3 -30
87 Senegal 411 12 45
88 Congo 407 -8 -45
89 Congo DR 403 -10 -51
90 Dominican Republic 396 4 0
90 Guatemala 396 -2 -14
92 FYR Macedonia 395 -14 -65
93 Sierra Leone 394 -23 -103
94 El Salvador 382 -8 -47
95 Angola 380 -4 -26
96 New Caledonia 377 1 6
97 Georgia 369 -1 -22
98 China PR 354 -3 -39
99 Oman 353 2 2
100 Liberia 344 0 -12
101 Iraq 335 -3 -35
102 Mozambique 326 1 -23
103 Azerbaijan 325 15 34
104 Lithuania 321 1 -9
105 Saudi Arabia 315 3 -8
106 Niger 313 1 -12
107 Malawi 312 2 -5
108 Suriname 311 5 0
109 Kuwait 309 2 -6
109 Tajikistan 309 3 -3
111 Northern Ireland 307 5 3
112 Korea DPR 306 2 -3
112 Qatar 306 -8 -32
114 Ethiopia 305 -8 -23
115 Zimbabwe 304 -13 -46
116 Benin 296 -1 -12
117 Bahrain 287 0 -5
118 Latvia 280 1 -7
119 Burundi 273 6 17
120 Tanzania 271 -11 -46
121 Botswana 267 6 22
122 Antigua and Barbuda 265 -1 -15
123 Grenada 264 1 -2
123 Kenya 264 0 -4
125 Cyprus 256 -3 -13
126 Guyana 250 0 1
127 Lebanon 246 4 13
128 Puerto Rico 241 0 0
129 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 1 0
130 Turkmenistan 232 2 0
131 Belize 227 -2 -12
132 Moldova 222 2 -8
133 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 4 0
134 Afghanistan 214 6 4
135 St. Lucia 210 5 0
136 Syria 205 2 -10
137 Philippines 203 7 0
137 Sudan 203 -2 -21
139 Thailand 202 3 -7
140 Namibia 192 -20 -89
141 Rwanda 191 -6 -33
142 Luxembourg 190 3 4
143 Vietnam 182 -10 -49
144 India 178 3 0
145 Barbados 175 4 0
146 Kyrgyzstan 174 -3 -32
147 Hong Kong 173 0 -5
148 Kazakhstan 172 -2 -8
149 Palestine 167 2 5
150 Bangladesh 166 2 5
151 Aruba 163 -1 0
152 Tahiti 147 -14 -68
153 Singapore 146 12 12
154 Malta 144 2 -4
155 Bermuda 139 6 0
156 Nicaragua 138 6 0
157 Liechtenstein 137 1 -8
158 Malaysia 136 1 -8
159 Chad 134 -5 -18
160 Lesotho 133 -7 -23
161 Solomon Islands 132 5 2
162 Myanmar 129 -7 -20
163 Gambia 126 -1 -12
164 Dominica 124 3 0
165 Maldives 122 -8 -24
166 Sao Tome e Principe 120 -7 -24
167 Pakistan 114 1 -4
168 Indonesia 112 2 -4
169 Nepal 106 2 -2
170 Yemen 96 3 0
171 Sri Lanka 95 1 -4
172 Mauritania 94 2 0
173 Laos 87 -5 -31
174 Faroe Islands 81 -12 -57
175 Chinese Taipei 77 0 -13
176 Guam 70 2 5
177 Montserrat 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 0 0
179 Swaziland 60 -1 -5
180 Guinea-Bissau 58 1 -4
181 Bahamas 53 -5 -13
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 3 0
182 Mauritius 52 3 0
182 Timor-Leste 52 3 0
185 Madagascar 51 -1 -4
186 Mongolia 49 -4 -12
187 Samoa 46 1 0
187 US Virgin Islands 46 6 7
189 Tonga 43 1 -1
189 Vanuatu 43 2 0
191 Comoros 41 1 0
191 Fiji 41 -9 -20
193 British Virgin Islands 34 2 0
194 Cayman Islands 33 2 0
195 American Samoa 30 2 0
196 Eritrea 24 2 0
197 Papua New Guinea 23 -3 -15
198 Cambodia 20 -9 -25
198 South Sudan 20 2 0
200 Seychelles 19 -1 -3
201 Somalia 14 1 0
202 Macau 12 0 -2
203 Djibouti 11 1 0
204 Cook Islands 9 -3 -7
205 Andorra 8 0 0
206 Anguilla 3 0 -1
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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52 comments:

  1. vedadpasicJune 7, 2013 at 11:45 PM

    Edgar, just has been confirmed that the Oman Bosnia match has been cancelled, so Bosnia will have 995 points...

    This is in Bosnian, but the news seems to be valid...

    http://www.bportal.ba/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=19156%3Aotkazana-utakmica-protiv-omana-zmajevi-se-u-subotu-vraaju-u-sarajevo&catid=44%3Asport-fudbal&Itemid=63

    ReplyDelete
  2. LorricJune 8, 2013 at 12:18 AM

    Scotland's victory over Croatia could potentially help England. Not only does it damage a seeding rival, but for beating the 4th best team on the planet in a qualifier, Scotland's ranking has received a huge boost, and England play Scotland in a friendly in their next match...

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJune 8, 2013 at 1:29 PM

    bosnia want to be in the top 10, immediatelly please!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJune 14, 2013 at 8:49 AM

      Let me just find my magic wand. It was around here somewhere... :)

      Delete
  4. فوتبالنامهJune 8, 2013 at 3:56 PM

    If Afghanistan is going to jump to 134, it means Afghanistan is reaching to its highest ever position. It reached highest position, 139, on the FIFA ranking table in April 2013.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJune 14, 2013 at 8:49 AM

      The teams listed were 100% sure of reaching a new best/worst ranking.

      Delete
  5. BertenJune 8, 2013 at 5:26 PM

    Belgium will also improve their best ever as the current 12th position was already a record last month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJune 14, 2013 at 8:49 AM

      The teams listed were 100% sure of reaching a new best/worst ranking.

      Delete
  6. PeterJune 9, 2013 at 5:37 PM

    I'm new to viewing this site, but just out of interest I was wondering why you chose to predict the scores for these matches instead of simply waiting until they'd been played. This was posted on Friday and a lot of the matches were taking place over this weekend. Seems like it would have been more useful just to wait a couple of days and then use the actual results.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JeroenJune 9, 2013 at 7:11 PM

      Edgar only does posts on friday, i've read

      Delete
    2. EdJune 10, 2013 at 5:46 PM

      Yeah Peter, but it is a prediction of the complete July ranking. And there are a lot of matches to be played until the deadline of that ranking (July 1st).

      So if you decide to make a prediction you include all matches from that moment until the deadline. Otherwise you could wait until July 1st and then you could calculate the July ranking with 100% certainty.

      The fun is to give a preview of the next ranking as early as possible so that people can see what's probably going to happen to their team.

      Delete
    3. EdgarJune 14, 2013 at 8:50 AM

      Jeroen, Ed - thanks!

      Delete
  7. AnonymousJune 9, 2013 at 5:56 PM

    This is nice. If this would be the trend next month, then the Philippines would be at their best 137..slowly but surely we are climbing up. Also, that would mean the Azkals would be the top team in the Footbal passionate region of SouthEast Asia. How's that for an emerging class of Afc to be on front of the so called "developing associations class (for those whose teams are not from AFC, our confederation had group the associations into three, where the weakest class were the "emerging"-those who dont have the right to directly qualify for the asian cup reserved for the elites)? but thailands a good team so we really have to wait for the outcome of their match vs. china

    ReplyDelete
  8. TobcoachJune 11, 2013 at 11:55 AM

    Not only did Croatia lose the two last matches, with those losses they threw away there pole position in Group A of the WorldCup qualifying, but they also are in danger of not beeing seeded anymore for the WorldCup group stage, if they make it to the WorldCup.

    This only shows how fast things can turn around for you if you get a bad (or good) result. A lot of countries still are eligable for the seeded spots in the WorldCup. Very exciting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nogometJune 11, 2013 at 12:22 PM

      Croatia will drop to, what, 8th or 9th place in July ranking? Maybe that's for the better because they are clearly not capable of staying humble and work as hard as before when they reach heights, like 4th place in previous months. It's very indicative that Croatia weren't able to qualify for EURO 2000 after winning the bronze medal in France 1998. Or failing miserably against England in WC 2010 qualifiers after beating them twice in EURO 2008 qualifiers. Not suited for the favourites role, never were and probably never will be. Our "natural" position is between 8th and 10th place. So this month's hard fall could possibly be the best thing that happened to Croatia.

      Delete
    2. JeroenJune 11, 2013 at 1:03 PM

      worst case scenario: Croatia ends up in 10th place (see another topic where i wrote belgium will at least be 11th).

      I disagree you have a natural position between 8th and 10th place. in my opinion, Croatia is a country like Belgium, Serbia, Poland, even Portugal... which will have their lows and highs. All these countries belong somewhere (in the EUROPEAN part of the ranking) between 5th and 15th, averaging 10th place in the long run. Countries like France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands (for some odd reason), Germany and UK in the average reach place 1-5, with some lows (like france right now) and some highs (Spain).

      Delete
    3. JeroenJune 11, 2013 at 1:05 PM

      Croatia will probably reach something like nr 7, btw. Depending on results of Colombia tonight, Italy, Mexico, Uruguay and Brasil during the remaning month.

      Delete
    4. nogometJune 11, 2013 at 1:08 PM

      Another interesting statistics regarding Croatia's ability to keep up with the favourites role. Croatia never won the qualifying group when starting as a Pot 1 team. They won the qualifying group 4 times: for EURO 1996 and WC 2002 as a Pot 3 team, and for WC 2006 and EURO 2008 as a Pot 2 team.

      On the other hand, they were a Pot 1 team in qualifiers for WC 2010 (finished third in the group), for EURO 2012 (finished second in the group), and WC 2014 (most likely will finish second).

      So, clearly, seeded position does not mean much in the curious case of Croatia.

      Delete
    5. nogometJune 11, 2013 at 1:22 PM

      @Jeroen

      Croatia have been in the Top 10 or very near it for the 5 straight years now. Belgium, Serbia and Poland do not come even close to it, so I wouldn't compare them with Croatia at all.

      Delete
    6. JeroenJune 11, 2013 at 5:39 PM

      it's off course a matter of opinion, but 5 years is short-term in football.

      Serbia is in the same league of Croatia because it has comparable size, inhabitants, sports interests, money, ... even if it hasn't shown anything, Serbia can eventually become as strong as Croatia.

      Belgium's the best example: in the 80's & 90's, before the start of the FIFA world ranking, Belgium was what Croatia is now. A small country which faced the greatest countries without fear. Let's hope we can do that again for some years, but on the long term, we can't start as favourite vs a country like France. Maybe we will be favourite in august, but not in 2020.

      Croatia might be ranked 60th on the 2020 ranking like Belgium was some years ago.

      Delete
    7. nogometJune 11, 2013 at 9:07 PM

      @Jeroen
      In principle, I agree with you. When I said Croatia's "natural" ranking is between 8-10 place, I meant it in the medium run: considering the last 5 years, and considering my prediction for the next 5 years. Who knows what will happen in 10 or 20 years. After all, in the long run we're all dead. :)

      Delete
  9. LorricJune 11, 2013 at 10:43 PM

    2 Spain - Haiti 1
    2 Italy - Haiti 2

    Impressive by Haiti.

    Haiti deliver a blow to Italy's seeding prospects...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJune 11, 2013 at 10:58 PM

      Well Lorric, not quite. On the contrary, I would say...

      The sensational loss of Denmark to Armenia has as a side effect shifted the predicted draw between Denmark and Italy (11/10) to a win for Italy, so they are now predicted 7th, behind Croatia and in front of Belgium. The draw against Haiti doesn't do them much harm in October (a loss of some 20 points).
      With every surprise result the seeding prospects change slightly, it's a fascinating process.

      Delete
    2. LorricJune 11, 2013 at 11:45 PM

      Hmmm, yes, a 4-0 home loss to an inferior side will have had a huge impact in the ELO system. It reminds me of Armenia going to Slovakia last campaign and winning 4-0.

      Of course, the Haiti result still hurts Italy. But I'm glad you brought that up. It will make the Confed Cup interesting. A lot riding on it for Italy...

      Fascinating indeed, they drop unexpected points and still come out ahead.

      Delete
    3. EdJune 12, 2013 at 9:08 AM

      Yes, Denmark lost 69 elo points yesterday, a major upset, every way you look at it.

      Delete
  10. LorricJune 11, 2013 at 10:52 PM

    France's points will plummet to 838. And if they have a bad World Cup or even fail to qualify, their ranking wil be low, as they enter a period of nothing but friendlies before Euro 2016.

    While you'd expect them to do well as the host nation, and pick up points, what if they don't? They could be seeded really low for 2018 World Cup qualifying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LorricJune 11, 2013 at 10:54 PM

      In fact, I just remembered, they do the qualifying draw before the tournament, don't they! They did it right in the middle of Euro qualifying this time! France could have a big problem!

      Delete
  11. EdJune 12, 2013 at 11:52 AM

    A lot has happened the past few days, some upsets and some expected results. Time for a recap of the predicted top 20 of the October ranking before the Confederations Cup start this Saturday. This tournament will bring some clarity about the seeding prospects of Mexico and Italy (and maybe Uruguay).

    The top 20 of the predicted October ranking at the moment looks like this:
    1 Spain 1616
    2 Germany 1342
    3 Colombia 1332
    4 Argentina 1206
    5 Netherlands 1173
    6 Croatia 1168
    7 Italy 1136
    8 Belgium 1115
    9 Portugal 1089
    10 Brazil 1088
    11 Mexico 1081
    12 England 1080
    13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1070
    14 Switzerland 1053
    15 Chile 998
    16 Russia 981
    17 USA 966
    18 Uruguay 962
    19 Ecuador 960
    20 Greece 930

    Croatia has dropped quite a bit after two surprise losses.
    Italy on the rise despite their draw with Haiti.
    Belgium in the waiting room, everything depends on their clash with Croatia.
    Portugal back in business. They can win extra in relation to their predictions for the friendlies with the Netherlands (a draw) and Brazil (a loss).
    Mexico one big question mark, not too convincing in their qualifying campaign so far though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nogometJune 12, 2013 at 12:49 PM

      So Croatia lost 200 points with two defeats. Impressive. What is the prediction for the remaining 3 Croatian games? Serbia draw, Belgium win, Scotland win?

      Delete
    2. MVJune 12, 2013 at 1:15 PM

      Yes. (According to my calcs)
      Also:
      2 1 0 -> 1150+ pts
      2 0 1 -> 1100-1150
      1 2 0 -> 1060-1100

      Delete
    3. EdJune 12, 2013 at 1:37 PM

      nogomet, the 200 points loss is also caused by the shift from a Serbia win to a Serbia draw of course.
      Correct, SRB draw, BEL win, SCO win. So a lot of points to lose and few to win in relation to the predictions.

      Delete
    4. TobcoachJune 12, 2013 at 3:28 PM

      Hi Ed,

      I have a list that differs somewhat from yours. I guess that has something to do with how we predict the outcome of games. I've taken all A-games of the past 4 years into account and looked at the percentage of home wins. That is 47,95%, while 28,29% ended in an away win.

      So, using the ELO-rating and the formula that goes with it, the home teams get a win if their win-ratio is higher than 47,95% and the away teams get a win if the win-ratio of the home team is less than 28,29%. Everything between 47,95% and 28,29% is considered to end in a draw.

      With that in mind, I get the following top 20:

      1. Spain 1593
      2. Germany 1270
      3. Argentina 1269
      4. Colombia 1254
      5. Netherlands 1154
      6. Portugal 1132
      7. Brazil 1114
      8. Italy 1112
      9. Croatia 1096
      10. England 1079
      11. Chile 1078
      12. Belgium 1073
      13. USA 1016
      14. Bosnia-Herzegovina 1013
      15. Switzerland 1005
      16. Russia 995
      17. Mexico 992
      18. Greece 933
      19. Côte d'Ivoire 905
      20. Ukraine 899

      The only difference between the sedded teams in your list and in mine is Croatia. You have them seeded and Portugal unseeded, I have them the other way around.

      It's just a matter of interpretation I guess, and either way it's going to be excited all the way down to October 15.

      Delete
    5. TobcoachJune 12, 2013 at 3:30 PM

      Oh, and by the way: I'm using the progressive ELO-ratings, just like you, plus I'm using the progressive FIFA-ranking as well.

      Delete
    6. EdJune 12, 2013 at 4:04 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    7. nogometJune 12, 2013 at 11:24 PM

      Tobcoach, so you have France as unseeded in the play-offs? If no surprises happen, Croatia, Portugal, Greece and Ukraine would take the seeded spot, with 25 percent of drawing France.

      Delete
    8. LorricJune 13, 2013 at 2:44 AM

      We don't know for sure, but the thinking was FIFA rushed in the seeded playoffs to stop Portugal and France meeting. Wouldn't it be fun to see that system now turned against them, with it boosting the odds of a Portugal/France tie this time.

      Delete
    9. nogometJune 16, 2013 at 4:39 PM

      Ed, Tobcoach, what do ELO predicitions say about Belgium - France friendly match in August? What do the French need to stay above Ukraine and take that last seeded spot in the play-offs, assuming that other three spots will go to Croatia, Portugal and Greece?

      Delete
    10. EdJune 16, 2013 at 8:47 PM

      nogomet,

      Ukraine and Romania seem to be France's closest contenders for the final seeded play-off spot. CZE has a predicted 818 pts at the moment and DEN and SWE are already below 800 pts.

      predictions for France: BEL (fr a) draw, GEO (wq a) win, BLR (wq a) win, FIN (wq h) win => 915 pts;
      predictions for Romania: SVK (fr h) win, HUN (wq h) win, TUR (wq h) win, AND (wq a) win, EST (wq h) win => 899 pts;
      predictions for Ukraine: ISR (fr h) win, SMR (wq h) win, ENG (wq h) draw, POL (wq h) win, SMR (wq a) win => 877 pts;

      If FRA lose to BEL (rest unchanged): 896 pts.
      If FRA wins against BEL (rest unchanged): 954 pts.
      If UKR wins against ENG (rest unchanged): 961 pts
      If UKR lose to ENG (rest unchanged): 835 pts


      Delete
    11. nogometJune 16, 2013 at 9:15 PM

      Thanks Ed! So France are still looking pretty good, unless Ukraine wins all their matches and send England to play-offs.

      Delete
  12. EdJune 12, 2013 at 4:17 PM

    Tobcoach,

    I apply the following simple rules (Ew is the win-expectancy of the home-team according to Elo):

    For friendlies:
    if Ew > 0.634 then home-team wins
    elseif Ew >= 0.366 then draw
    else away-team wins

    For non-friendlies (importance-factor > 1):
    if Ew > 0.609 then home-team wins
    elseif Ew >= 0.391 then draw
    else away-team wins

    Both numbers 0.634 and 0.609 are derived from the percentage of draws in the last 4 years for each type of match, 26,8% in friendlies and 21,9% in non-friendlies.

    Apart from the distinction between friendlies and non-friendlies, assuming that the win expectancy is uniformly distributed (each value of the win expectancy has the same chance of realisation) in your approach you get in 1 - 0.4795 = 52,05% of all values for the win expectancy a home win. That's not corresponding with the 47.95% home wins you counted.

    I think that with a win expectancy of nearly 0.5 the expected result should be a draw. It is 50-50 so to speak. That's why I determine my boundaries symmetrical around the 0.5 win expectancy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TobcoachJune 13, 2013 at 8:45 AM

      Ed,

      Your comment about the 47,95% not corresponding with the number of expected home wins makes sense. I've adjusted that in my formula, thanks!!

      You would say a slight adjustment of about 3% doesn't make much of a difference, but is does!

      Now Croatia is seeded again, and Italy isn't. Either way, it seems that 5 of the 8 seeded teams are pretty much certain, provided they qualify: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina and Colombia.

      For the other 3 seeded spots it's anyones guess I think and will hugely depend on the results of the upcoming months. As you said earlier: very exciting to see that with every result that differs from your own predicion, the tables turn.

      Delete
    2. AmirJune 13, 2013 at 10:42 PM

      Actually, this methodology is also not really correct, as having a cut off of 53% doesn't mean that 47% of the games will result in a home mean.
      For example, in a world where all the matches re between teams with big difference, that is all ELO predictions are over 80%, and there are 23% draws, your methods will results in zero draws predictions.
      A better methodology would be to list all matches in the past few years, then see what are the closest 23% according to there distance from 0.5.
      Then taking that number as a cut off would result in more accurate predictions!

      Delete
    3. AmirJune 13, 2013 at 10:43 PM

      I meant home win...

      Delete
    4. EdJune 13, 2013 at 11:38 PM

      Amir,

      Thanks, that is a good example to illustrate the possible flaw in my simple prediction approach. A bit anxious about possible flaws I followed your suggestion and ranked the elo win expectancies of all non-friendlies of the past 4 years in order of their (absolute) distance from 0.5 win expectancy. This gives two boundaries 0.392 and 0.608 of a range in which 21.9% of all non-friendlies lie (the percentage of draws for this type of match).
      For friendlies (26.8% draws) the resulting boundaries are 0.372 and 0.628.
      Of course this exercise always results in a symmetrical range around the 0.5 win expectancy.

      I conclude that my boundaries for non-friendlies are very good (deviation 0.001) and my boundaries for friendlies are more than acceptable (deviation 0.006).
      Overall, I'm satisfied with the accuracy of my simple prediction method !

      Delete
    5. AmirJune 14, 2013 at 10:26 AM

      Wow, I wonder if there is a reason that the numbers came so close. Why would the ELO probabilities be almost uniformly distributed?
      Thanks for checking that suggestion.

      Delete
    6. EdJune 14, 2013 at 10:16 PM

      Amir,

      it's indeed remarkable because both Ew-distributions (for friendlies and non-friendlies) are not exactly uniform.

      I've made a frequency distribution of the number of matches in each 1%-class of Ew. The graph for non-friendlies shows that the number of matches per class for Ew's between 0.25 and 0.75 is sort of equal/uniform (around 20 per class). There are 3 times more matches with a Ew > 0.75 (around 35 per class) than matches with a Ew < 0.25 (around 12 per class), a rather askew distribution.

      The graph for friendlies climbs steadily from 2 matches (Ew=0.02) to 38 (Ew=0.77). After that it drops sharply back to some 15 matches at Ew=1.

      The graphs which plots the distance to Ew=0.5 is for both type of matches almost uniformly distributed for distances between 0 and 0.25. Maybe that's the explanation that the resulting boundaries from your suggested approach are almost the same as if Ew itself was perfectly uniformly distributed.
      Or it is purely coincidence :)

      Delete
  13. AnonymousJune 13, 2013 at 7:15 AM

    wtf spain? still in rank one!!! -_-

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousJune 13, 2013 at 1:38 PM

    Algeria is the best team in africa now and it should be within top ten in the world ranking and this listing is not fair untill now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJune 13, 2013 at 3:41 PM

      If it is the best team, why did it not even qualify for the second round in the africa cup?
      Algeria is ranked at a fair place.

      Delete
    2. JeroenJune 13, 2013 at 10:07 PM

      I guess it is quite fair to say Algeria has a correct ranking. Top 10 would be quite weird for a team which hasn't beaten an European team in 10 years, and only once in 20 years.

      Delete
  15. UnknownJune 14, 2013 at 12:07 AM

    Bull shit ...
    Algeria now 729 , rank 35 ..... how it became 680 rank 40

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJune 14, 2013 at 10:52 AM

      This is based on probable results generated using the Elo ratings.

      Delete

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