2018 FIFA World Cup: 2 years left until the preliminary draw

Next update: July/August 2014.

The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.

Assumption: same formats used for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

Based on the 2014 preliminary draw, the FIFA ranking used to seed the teams from AFC, CAF and UEFA will be the July 2015 edition, while for the CONCACAF teams the March 2015 ranking will be used.

This means we already have 25% of the final formula (even more for CONCACAF teams), as the 0.3 time frame closed a couple of days ago. See previous update.

CAF

First round

Pot 1: Liberia, Mozambique, Burundi, Botswana, Namibia, Niger, Kenya, Benin, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Malawi, Sudan, Sao Tome e Principe
Pot 2: Mauritania, Chad, Lesotho, Mauritius, Gambia, Swaziland, Madagascar, Seychelles, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Somalia, Comoros, Djibouti, South Sudan

Second round (group stage)

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Ghana, Algeria, Cape Verde Islands, Nigeria, Zambia, Tunisia, Cameroon, Burkina Faso
Pot 2: Libya, Guinea, Togo, Sierra Leone, Congo DR, Gabon, Uganda, Morocco, South Africa, Egypt
Pot 3: Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Senegal, Angola

Pot 3 and Pot 4 will be completed with the 14 winners of the first round.

Changes from the last update:

Burkina Faso climbed 4 pots (not spots) from the unseeded pot (5th pot) of the preliminary round to the seeded pot of the group stage draw.

Nigeria climbed for the 3rd pot to the 1st pot.
Congo DR, Uganda and South Africa climbed from the seeded pot (4th pot) of the preliminary round to the 2nd pot of the group stage draw.
Cape Verde Islands and Cameroon climbed from the 2nd to the 1st pot.
Togo climbed from the 3rd to the 2nd pot.
Botswana climbed from the 5th pot to the 4th pot.

Congo fell from the 1st to the 3rd pot.
Chad fell from the 3rd pot to 5th pot.
Benin and Sao Tome e Principe fell from the 2nd to the 4th pot.
Libya, Sierra Leone and Gabon fell from the 1st to the 2nd pot.
Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic and Angola fell from the 2nd to the 3rd pot.
Namibia fell from the 3rd to the 4th pot.
Gambia fell from the 4th to the 5th pot.

AFC

For the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries, AFC used the performance based seeding for the first two rounds, then the July 2011 ranking for the group stage draw. This means that if the rules don't change, we already know the seeding for the first two rounds.

First round (performance based)

Pot 1: Bangladesh, Yemen, India, Philippines, Maldives, Myanmar, Syria, Kyrgystan, Hong Kong, Nepal, Laos
Pot 2: Chinese Taipei, Mongolia, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Macau, Guam, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam

Second round (performance based)

Pot 1: loser of the Uzbekistan/Jordan play-off, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, China PR, Kuwait, Korea DPR, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Tajikistan, Singapore, Indonesia
Pot 2: Turkmenistan, Palestine, Malaysia, Vietnam + 11 winners from the first round

Third round (seeded using the FIFA ranking)

Assuming the seeded teams advance, this is how the pots would look like:

Pot 1: Japan, Uzbekistan, Australia, Iran, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Oman, China PR, Iraq
Pot 3: Korea DPR, Tajikistan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar
Pot 4: Kuwait, Bahrain, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia

Changes from the last update:

United Arab Emirates climbed from the 4th to the 2nd pot.
Tajikistan climbed from the 4th to the 3rd pot.

Korea DPR fell from the 2nd to the 3rd pot.
Kuwait and Bahrain fell from the 3rd to the 4th pot.

CONCACAF

First round

Pot 1: Barbados, Bahamas, Dominica, Montserrat, Curacao
Pot 2: US Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Anguilla, Turks and Caicos Islands

Second round (group stage)

Pot 1: El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Cuba
Pot 2: Guatemala, Belize, Suriname, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda
Pot 3: Puerto Rico, St. Lucia, Guyana, St. Kitts and Nevis, Bermuda, Aruba
Pot 4: Nicaragua + 5 winners from the first round

Third round (group stage)

Pot 1: USA, Mexico, Panama
Pot 2: Costa Rica, Honduras, Haiti
Pot 3: 6 group winners from the second round

Changes from the last update:

Cuba climb 4 pots from the seeded pot (7th pot) of the first round to the seeded pot of the second round (3rd pot).
Grenada climb from the 7th pot to the 3rd pot.
St. Lucia climb from the 7th pot to the 5th pot.
Honduras and Haiti climb from the 3rd to the 2nd pot.
Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominican Republic climb from the 4th to the 3rd pot.
Suriname climb from the 5th to the 4th pot.
Barbados, Dominica and Montserrat climb from the 8th to the 7th pot.

Bermuda fell from the 3rd to the 5th pot.
Bahamas and Curacao fell from the 5th to the 7th pot.
US Virgin Islands fell from the 6th to the 8th pot.
El Salvador and Jamaica fell from the 2nd to the 3rd pot.
Guatemala and Antigua and Barbuda fell from the 3rd to the 4th pot.
Puerto Rico and Aruba fell from the 4th to the 5th pot.
Nicaragua fell from the 5th to the 6th pot.
British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands fell from the 7th to the 8th pot.

UEFA

Pot 1: Spain, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Portugal, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Switzerland
Pot 2: England, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Hungary, France, Denmark, Ukraine, Wales, Romania
Pot 3: Sweden, Norway, Albania, Scotland, Montenegro, Republic of Ireland, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria
Pot 4: Finland, Iceland, Armenia, Poland, Slovenia, Turkey, Estonia, Israel, Slovakia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Latvia, Malta, Azerbaijan, Northern Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg
Pot 6: Moldova, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino

Changes from the last update:

Belgium climb from the 4th to the 1st pot.
Montenegro and Bulgaria climb from the 5th to the 3rd pot.
Israel climb from the 6th to the 4th pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece and Switzerland climb from the 2nd to the 1st pot.
Netherlands, Ukraine and Romania climb from the 3rd to the 2nd pot.
Albania, Austria and Serbia climb from the 4th to the 3rd pot.
Iceland climb from the 5th to the 4th pot.

Estonia fell from the 2nd to the 4th pot.
Latvia fell from the 3rd to the 5th pot.
England, Czech Republic, Denmark and Wales fell from the 1st to the 2nd pot.
Sweden, Scotland and Republic of Ireland fell from the 2nd to the 3rd pot.
Armenia, Poland, Slovenia and Turkey fell from the 3rd to the 4th pot.
FYR Macedonia, Malta and Luxembourg fell from the 4th to the 5th pot.
Kazakhstan fell from the 6th to the 5th pot.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.