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Friday, July 19, 2013

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

92 - Cameroon
49 - El Salvador
40 - Ecuador
33 - Trinidad and Tobago
33 - Suriname
31 - Lebanon
30 - Botswana
25 - Dominican Republic
24 - Vanuatu
22 - Turkmenistan

Most points lost (best case scenario):

-75 - Togo
-49 - Aruba
-48 - Spain
-47 - Côte d'Ivoire
-46 - Haiti
-43 - Peru
-43 - Vietnam
-37 - Belize
-33 - Ethiopia
-31 - Tunisia

At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (at least 89 - 90 in July 2013)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)

One team will return to its best ever ranking:

Afghanistan (139 - 139 in April 2013)

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Cambodia (199 - 198 in July 2013)
South Sudan (203 - 200 in November 2012)

July 2013 rank - Country - July 2013 points - Minimum points - Maximum points


1 Spain 1532 1484 1484
2 Germany 1273 1257 1257
3 Colombia 1206 1219 1219
4 Argentina 1204 1210 1210
5 Netherlands 1180 1165 1165
6 Italy 1142 1142 1142
7 Portugal 1099 1099 1099
8 Croatia 1098 1098 1098
9 Brazil 1095 1089 1089
10 Belgium 1079 1079 1079
11 Greece 1038 1038 1038
12 Uruguay 1016 998 998
13 Côte d'Ivoire 1009 932 962
14 Bosnia-Herzegovina 995 995 995
15 England 994 994 994
16 Switzerland 987 987 987
17 Russia 979 979 979
18 Ecuador 932 972 972
19 Peru 898 855 855
20 Mexico 880 857 977
21 Chile 872 871 871
22 USA 865 866 977
23 France 838 838 838
24 Ghana 830 830 830
25 Norway 801 801 801
26 Czech Republic 797 797 797
27 Denmark 788 788 788
28 Mali 774 735 763
28 Montenegro 774 774 774
28 Ukraine 774 774 774
31 Sweden 765 765 765
32 Hungary 749 749 749
33 Romania 732 732 732
34 Algeria 730 730 730
35 Nigeria 723 700 725
36 Venezuela 704 688 688
37 Albania 689 689 689
37 Japan 689 645 705
39 Costa Rica 688 651 781
40 Australia 671 622 685
41 Serbia 661 661 661
42 Burkina Faso 656 618 631
43 Korea Republic 642 575 666
44 Republic of Ireland 639 639 639
45 Slovenia 634 634 634
46 Wales 630 630 630
47 Tunisia 627 596 596
48 Paraguay 622 614 614
49 Cape Verde Islands 620 620 620
50 Scotland 610 610 610
51 Panama 601 605 741
52 Bulgaria 596 596 596
52 Iran 596 601 601
54 Austria 595 595 595
55 Honduras 582 597 750
55 New Zealand 582 582 582
57 Turkey 573 573 573
58 Uzbekistan 563 566 566
59 South Africa 558 523 530
60 Zambia 554 522 558
61 Guinea 545 482 526
62 Egypt 543 544 544
63 Slovakia 542 542 542
64 Israel 540 540 540
65 Finland 537 537 537
66 Armenia 534 534 534
67 Equatorial Guinea 532 532 532
68 Bolivia 528 538 538
69 Haiti 522 476 476
70 Libya 518 518 518
71 Cameroon 517 609 609
72 Togo 511 436 436
73 Iceland 499 499 499
74 Senegal 497 452 471
75 Poland 493 493 493
76 Jordan 489 495 495
77 Jamaica 484 469 469
78 Belarus 482 482 482
79 Morocco 470 474 474
80 Uganda 466 454 468
81 Gabon 459 459 459
82 Cuba 458 389 601
83 Sierra Leone 443 443 443
84 Congo DR 434 407 433
85 United Arab Emirates 432 429 429
86 Estonia 423 423 423
87 Trinidad and Tobago 419 452 628
88 Canada 413 386 386
89 Central African Republic 398 398 398
90 Congo 396 348 385
90 Dominican Republic 396 421 421
92 FYR Macedonia 395 395 395
93 Guatemala 388 377 377
94 El Salvador 382 431 627
95 Ethiopia 381 338 348
96 Angola 380 364 364
97 New Caledonia 377 377 377
98 Georgia 369 369 369
99 Oman 361 370 370
100 China PR 339 317 413
101 Iraq 335 328 328
102 Mozambique 326 301 328
103 Liberia 324 335 335
104 Lithuania 321 321 321
105 Saudi Arabia 315 316 316
106 Tajikistan 314 301 301
107 Niger 313 289 323
108 Malawi 312 283 283
109 Suriname 311 344 344
110 Kuwait 309 304 304
111 Northern Ireland 307 307 307
112 Korea DPR 306 306 306
112 Qatar 306 305 305
114 Zimbabwe 304 277 329
115 Benin 302 302 302
116 Botswana 301 331 382
117 Azerbaijan 298 298 298
118 Bahrain 286 286 286
119 Latvia 280 280 280
120 Burundi 273 235 260
121 Tanzania 271 249 271
122 Antigua and Barbuda 265 272 272
123 Grenada 264 264 264
123 Kenya 264 243 243
125 Cyprus 256 256 256
125 Moldova 256 256 256
127 Namibia 252 219 261
128 Guyana 250 250 250
129 Lebanon 246 277 277
130 Belize 242 205 205
131 Puerto Rico 241 241 241
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 238 238
133 Malta 236 236 236
134 Rwanda 233 216 240
134 Sudan 233 223 239
136 Turkmenistan 232 254 254
137 Kyrgyzstan 227 228 228
138 Thailand 223 223 223
139 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 218 218
140 Afghanistan 214 214 214
141 Luxembourg 210 210 210
141 St. Lucia 210 207 207
143 Syria 205 174 174
144 Philippines 203 208 208
145 Vietnam 182 139 139
146 India 178 177 177
147 Barbados 175 175 175
148 Hong Kong 173 180 180
148 Liechtenstein 173 173 173
150 Kazakhstan 172 172 172
151 Palestine 167 168 168
152 Bangladesh 166 138 138
153 Aruba 163 114 114
154 Maldives 147 150 150
154 Tahiti 147 147 147
156 Singapore 146 142 142
157 Bermuda 139 139 139
158 Nicaragua 138 138 138
159 Malaysia 136 133 133
160 Chad 134 135 135
161 Lesotho 133 135 165
162 Solomon Islands 132 152 152
163 Myanmar 129 120 120
164 Gambia 126 124 124
165 Dominica 124 124 124
166 Sao Tome e Principe 120 120 120
167 Pakistan 114 114 114
168 Indonesia 112 99 99
169 Nepal 106 95 95
170 Yemen 96 83 83
171 Sri Lanka 95 95 95
172 Mauritania 94 94 159
173 Laos 87 84 84
174 Faroe Islands 81 81 81
175 Chinese Taipei 77 75 75
176 Guam 70 71 71
177 Montserrat 66 66 66
178 Curacao 65 61 61
179 Swaziland 60 62 62
180 Guinea-Bissau 58 58 58
181 Bahamas 53 40 40
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 52 52
182 Mauritius 52 70 143
182 Timor-Leste 52 52 52
185 Madagascar 51 50 50
186 Mongolia 49 49 49
187 Samoa 46 46 46
187 US Virgin Islands 46 42 42
189 Tonga 43 43 43
189 Vanuatu 43 67 67
191 Comoros 41 33 33
191 Fiji 41 50 50
193 British Virgin Islands 34 21 21
194 Cayman Islands 33 33 33
195 American Samoa 30 30 30
196 Eritrea 24 24 24
197 Papua New Guinea 23 23 23
198 Cambodia 20 20 20
198 South Sudan 20 10 10
200 Seychelles 19 24 24
201 Somalia 14 14 14
202 Macau 12 13 13
203 Djibouti 11 11 11
204 Cook Islands 9 9 9
205 Andorra 8 8 8
206 Anguilla 3 2 2
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

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19 comments:

  1. Andrew SidhomJuly 30, 2013 at 11:05 AM

    How can Cuba have a maximum of 601 ?? Isn't it a mistake? I tried to bring its total to that number every which way but never came up with 601. I looked many times at Cuba's past fixtures and noticed that they played no games at all in the past four years in July or August... So all except the latest timeframe average should remain unchanged no? As listed by FIFA in July:

    2010 ..... 0 ......... 20% ...... 0
    2011 ..... 224.27 .... 30% ...... 67.28
    2012 ..... 19.95 ..... 50% ...... 9.97
    2013*..... 380.82 .... 100% ..... 380.82

    Total ........................... 458

    In the 100% timeframe, I counted 10 games played before the Gold Cup + four during (to be added).

    Since this was posted on July 19, I assumed that you took into account the 1st three game results (up to the 16th) and the only unknown was the game on the 20th. Then I tried different combinations of wins/losses using the following game points for the hypothetical Cuba wins:

    PAN - CUB (6:1) .......... 1180.08
    CUB - BLZ (4:0) .......... 554.4
    USA - CUB (4:1) .......... 1409.76
    CRC - CUB (3:0) .......... 1275.12

    Added these to 3808.2 (380.82 x 10) and divided by 14 for the new yearly avg. Substituted the old avg with the new one in the final total, never got 601.

    Any help??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 30, 2013 at 2:12 PM

      Andrew,

      assume that at the time of the post the quarter final pairing was known (PAN-CUB).
      We are talking about calculating maximum points here so Cuba wins that quarter final. After that awaits a semi final against Mexico and after another win awaits a final against the USA with also a win for Cuba, so that leads for the first time frame to:

      10 matches 3808.2 pts
      3 group matches GC 554.4 pts
      QF GC (win PAN) 1180.08 pts
      SF (win MEX) 1425.6 pts
      F (win USA) 1409.76 pts
      16 matches 8378.04 pts => avg 523.63

      and for the FIFA points in August for Cuba:
      523.63 + 9.97 + 67.28 + 0 = 600.88, rounded 601 pts.

      Delete
    2. EdgarAugust 2, 2013 at 8:07 AM

      Thanks Ed! Again :)

      Delete
  2. HosamJuly 30, 2013 at 5:44 PM

    Sorry for the inconvenience

    For the classification of Egypt national team

    Egypt has a friendly match on Aug. 14 against Mali

    Is it possible to know if Egypt beat Mali how many points increase in ranking?

    For the Tunis friendly match against Congo Brazzaville
    In case of victory Tunisia how many points increase in ranking?
    In case of a drawn?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 30, 2013 at 6:16 PM

      Hossam,

      the friendlies on August 14th count for the September ranking. The final CAF second round qualification matches on September 6-10 will also count for this ranking.
      The September ranking will be used to seed the 10 second round group winners in the draw for the CAF play-offs.

      Egypt will have 544 points in the August ranking.
      For the September ranking:
      EGY win MLI, win GUI: 620 pts
      EGY win MLI, draw GUI: 573 pts
      EGY win MLI, loss GUI: 549 pts

      EGY draw MLI, win GUI: 596 pts
      EGY draw MLI, draw GUI: 549 pts
      EGY draw MLI, loss GUI: 525 pts

      EGY loss MLI, win GUI: 584 pts
      EGY loss MLI, draw GUI: 537 pts
      EGY loss MLI, loss GUI: 513 pts

      Tunisia will have 596 pts in August.
      For the September ranking:
      TUN win CGO, win CPV: 643 pts
      TUN win CGO, draw CPV: 601 pts
      TUN win CGO, loss CPV: 580 pts

      TUN draw CGO, win CPV: 632 pts
      TUN draw CGO, draw CPV: 590 pts
      TUN draw CGO, loss CPV: 569 pts

      TUN loss CGO, win CPV: 626 pts
      TUN loss CGO, draw CPV: 585 pts
      TUN loss CGO, loss CPV: 564 pts

      Delete
    2. HosamJuly 30, 2013 at 11:44 PM

      Based on any standard has been calculated that Egypt will reach a point 620 and not 612?

      Note that Mali would fall in the ranking and Guinea also in August ranking

      Delete
    3. EdJuly 31, 2013 at 7:02 PM

      Hossam, I don't understand your question.

      The presented points are calculated with the positions of Mali (32) and Guinea (68) in the August ranking.

      Delete
  3. HosamJuly 30, 2013 at 5:49 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. HosamJuly 30, 2013 at 5:52 PM

    2010 669.5 20% 133.9
    2011 193.39 30% 58.02
    2012 266.53 50% 133.26
    2013 217.7 100% 217.7


    Is it possible to know how the average is calculated in 2013?
    Example Egypt average in 2013 is 217.7

    How is calculated?

    ReplyDelete
  5. RyanJuly 30, 2013 at 6:05 PM

    15-Aug-12-OMA-0.86-0.86-1-92 -1 -92.88
    12-Oct-12-CGO-0.86-0.86-3-94 -1 -273.48
    16-Oct-12-TUN-0.86-0.86-0-45 -1 -0
    14-Nov-12-GEO-1.00-0.86-1-65 -1 -125.55
    10-Jan-13-GHA-0.86-0.86-0-30 -1 -0
    14-Jan-13-CIV-0.86-0.86-0-14 -1 -0
    6-Feb-13 -CHI-1.00-0.86-0-30 -1 -0
    7-Mar-13 -QAT-0.86-0.86-0-101-1 -0
    26-Mar-13-ZIM-0.86-0.86-3-100-2.5-645
    9-Jun-13 -ZIM-0.86-0.86-3-102-2.5-632.1
    16-Jun-13-MOZ-0.86-0.86-3-103-2.5-625.65

    The game result is the final column which is (Column 3+column 4)/2*column 5*(200-column 6)*column 7.
    Yearly coefficient is the average of all games in that year which comes to 217.7.

    The ranking in September is being released on the 12th, so both the match against Mali and the World Cup Qualifying match against Guinea will likely be counted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HosamJuly 30, 2013 at 6:41 PM

      Is it possible to calculate Tunisia ranking as you calculated Egypt ranking?


      2013 318.34 100% 318.34

      Delete
    2. RyanJuly 30, 2013 at 6:52 PM

      15-Aug-12-Iran-0.86-0.86-1-48-1-130.72
      8-Sep-12-Sierra Leone-0.86-0.86-1-59-2.5-303.15
      13-Oct-12-Sierra Leone-0.86-0.86-1-67-2.5-285.95
      16-Oct-12-Egypt-0.86-0.86-3-40-1-412.8
      14-Nov-12-Switzerland-1-0.86-0-16-1-0
      31-Dec-12-Iraq-0.86-0.86-3-92-1-278.64
      7-Jan-13-Ethiopia-0.86-0.86-1-110-1-77.4
      10-Jan-13-Gabon-0.86-0.86-1-42-1-135.88
      13-Jan-13-Ghana-0.86-0.86-0-30-1-0
      22-Jan-13-Algeria-0.86-0.86-3-22-3-1377.72
      26-Jan-13-Ivory Coast-0.86-0.86-0-14-3-0
      30-Jan-13-Togo-0.86-0.86-1-77-3-317.34
      23-Mar-13-Sierra Leone-0.86-0.86-3-63-2.5-883.65
      7-Jun-13-Sierra Leone-0.86-0.86-1-70-2.5-279.5
      14-Jun-13-Equatorial Guinea-0.86-0.86-1-64-2.5-292.4
      5-Jul-13-Morocco-0.86-0.86-0-79-1-0
      13-Jul-13-Morocco-0.86-0.86-1-79-1-104.06

      Delete
  6. HosamJuly 31, 2013 at 4:24 PM

    Is it possible to know the expectations of September ranking for Cameroon and Cape Verde??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 31, 2013 at 6:57 PM

      In addition to the numbers for Egypt and Tunisia:
      the FIFA points in the September ranking for the main contenders for the last seeded spots in the CAF play-offs (Nigeria, Cameroon, Cape Verde and Burkina Faso) for all combinations of results. The opponent's position in the August ranking is used to calculate these points.

      Nigeria: friendly RSA-NGA (Aug 14) and WCQ NGA-MWI (Sep 7)
      NGA win RSA, win MWI: 710 pts
      NGA win RSA, draw MWI: 692 pts
      NGA win RSA, loss MWI: 683 pts

      NGA draw RSA, win MWI: 698 pts
      NGA draw RSA, draw MWI: 681 pts
      NGA draw RSA, loss MWI: 672 pts

      NGA loss RSA, win MWI: 693 pts
      NGA loss RSA, draw MWI: 675 pts
      NGA loss RSA, loss MWI: 666 pts

      Cameroon: friendly GAB-CMR (Aug 9) and WCQ CMR-LBY (Sep 8)
      CMR win GAB, win LBY: 639 pts
      CMR win GAB, draw LBY: 588 pts
      CMR win GAB, loss LBY: 562 pts

      CMR draw GAB, win LBY: 620 pts
      CMR draw GAB, draw LBY: 569 pts
      CMR draw GAB, loss LBY: 543 pts

      CMR loss GAB, win LBY: 611 pts
      CMR loss GAB, draw LBY: 560 pts
      CMR loss GAB, loss LBY: 534 pts

      Cape Verde: friendly GAB-CPV (Aug 14) and WCQ TUN-CPV (Sep 7)
      CPV win GAB, win TUN: 756 pts
      CPV win GAB, draw TUN: 703 pts
      CPV win GAB, loss TUN: 677 pts

      CPV draw GAB, win TUN: 739 pts
      CPV draw GAB, draw TUN: 686 pts
      CPV draw GAB, loss TUN: 660 pts

      CPV loss GAB, win TUN: 730 pts
      CPV loss GAB, draw TUN: 678 pts
      CPV loss GAB, loss TUN: 651 pts

      Burkina Faso: friendly MAR-BFA (Aug 14) and WCQ BFA-GAB (Sep 7)
      BFA win MAR, win GAB: 651 pts
      BFA win MAR, draw GAB: 624 pts
      BFA win MAR, loss GAB: 611 pts

      BFA draw MAR, win GAB: 640 pts
      BFA draw MAR, draw GAB: 613 pts
      BFA draw MAR, loss GAB: 600 pts

      BFA loss MAR, win GAB: 634 pts
      BFA loss MAR, draw GAB: 607 pts
      BFA loss MAR, loss GAB: 594 pts

      Interesting role for Gabon here, with a match to play against three contestants for a seeded spot.

      Delete
  7. EdJuly 31, 2013 at 6:12 PM

    Concerning the CAF play-offs.

    Based on the given list of elo-predictions for all remaining matches with CAF-teams involved, the predicted September ranking for CAF-countries that could still qualify for the play-offs is:

    1 Cote d'Ivoire 952
    2 Ghana 867
    3 Algeria 780
    4 Nigeria 698
    5 Cape Verde Islands 683
    6 Tunisia 643
    7 Burkina Faso 640
    8 Egypt 596
    9 Cameroon 588
    10 South Africa 547
    11 Senegal 534
    12 Zambia 526
    13 Libya 490
    14 Uganda 477
    15 Gabon 420
    16 Congo 388
    17 Ethiopia 359
    18 Botswana 337
    19 Malawi 269

    Elo-predictions:
    2013-08-02 Namibia - Mozambique; Friendly; X
    2013-08-02 Zambia - Botswana; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-02 Zimbabwe - Mauritius; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-05 Oman - Libya; Friendly; X
    2013-08-09 Gabon - Cameroon; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Algeria - Guinea; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Egypt - Mali; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Mexico - Cote d'Ivoire; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Morocco - Burkina Faso; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 South Africa - Nigeria; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Tunisia - Congo; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Zambia - Senegal; Friendly; X
    2013-09-06 Algeria - Mali; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Angola - Liberia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Benin - Rwanda; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Burkina Faso - Gabon; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Cameroon - Libya; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Central African Republic - Ethiopia; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Cote d'Ivoire - Morocco; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Egypt - Guinea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Gambia - Tanzania; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Ghana - Zambia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Kenya - Namibia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Niger - Congo; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Nigeria - Malawi; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Senegal - Uganda; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Sierra Leone - Equatorial Guinea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 South Africa - Botswana; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Sudan - Lesotho; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Togo - Congo DR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Tunisia - Cape Verde Islands; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Zimbabwe - Mozambique; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Japan - Ghana; Friendly; 1

    Based on these predictions the qualified teams for the play-offs are:

    Seeded:
    1 Cote d'Ivoire
    2 Ghana
    3 Algeria
    4 Nigeria
    5 Tunisia

    Unseeded:
    6 Burkina Faso
    7 Egypt
    8 Cameroon
    9 South Africa
    10 Senegal

    ReplyDelete
  8. HosamJuly 31, 2013 at 7:31 PM

    Egypt needs to play another friendly match to ensure its presence within the first 5 teams in ranking.
    There is FIFA date on 6 September
    Most African teams linked to the last round of World Cup qualifiers and Europe also.

    What do you advise us to solve this problem?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 31, 2013 at 10:20 PM

      Well Hossam,

      an Sep 6 friendly WIN against Argentina (the highest positioned team that does not already play on that date), together with wins against Mali and Guinea, leaves Egypt at 639 pts in the September ranking.
      You can see above that's not enough to reach 5th spot in the CAF-ranking, unless Tunisia and Burkina Faso perform worse than elo predicts for them.
      So I'm afraid Egypt hasn't got its fate in its own hands anymore as far as the seeding is concerned.

      Just qualify for the play-offs and I'm sure that none of the seeded teams will be very happy to draw Egypt as their opponent.
      After 1990 it's time for Egypt to present itself once again at the world stage as one of Africa's strongest teams.

      Delete
    2. Daniel BurnierAugust 1, 2013 at 9:59 AM

      Egypt should hope that Congo contradicts the elo rankings by defeating Niger (who lost all its matches until now) and then takes Burkina Faso out of the board.

      Malawi, Lybia and Uganda can also help... but in this case the chances are not so high :)

      Delete
    3. EdAugust 1, 2013 at 11:13 AM

      Daniel, you're right, Congo could take out Burkina Faso.

      But even then: numbers 1-4 (Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Algeria and Nigeria) are, even with bad results, unreachable and from the pair Tunisia-Cape Verde one qualifies. If Cape Verde qualifies, Egypt is unseeded.
      Egypt's only hope lies in Tunisia qualifying with a draw against CPV. Tunisia will then have 585-601 pts in September, depending on the result of the Tunisia-Congo friendly.
      Egypt will probably have to win both planned matches against Mali and Guinea anyway. That results in 620 pts in September.

      Delete

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