August 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of July were Equatorial Guinea and Albania - each of them best opponent for 72 teams.

5 of the top 20 teams (England +11, Uruguay +8, Germany +6, Portugal +5, Mexico +1) would have gained points, but only England would have climbed in the ranking - 2 spots by defeating Albania.

August 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Syria	147	82	65
South Sudan	203	139	64
Fiji	185	123	62
Korea DPR	110	58	52
Kuwait	112	72	40
China PR	95	58	37
Gambia	163	128	35
Guinea-Bissau	182	147	35
Vanuatu	178	144	34
Papua New Guinea	197	164	33

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Uzbekistan will advance to the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup playoff.

The pots for the CAF playoff draw will be:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Cameroon, South Africa, Senegal

Northern Ireland will climb 40 spots, Benin 25, Poland 20.

Suriname will drop 34 spots, Puerto Rico 29, Slovakia 22, Scotland 18.

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the September 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 12th.

Very important month for Uzbekistan and Jordan - involved in the AFC World Cup play-off. Also the CAF group stage ends this month and besides the actual qualification, teams will also be interested in their FIFA ranking as it will be used to seed the play-off draw.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

124 - Northern Ireland
49 - Cuba
35 - Tahiti
32 - Iran
31 - Antigua and Barbuda
25 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
19 - Panama
18 - Syria
16 - Samoa
15 - Equatorial Guinea

Premier league work permit update (August 2013)

See my previous post about the work permit.

I can't quite explain why the FIFA ranking averages published by the FA are one month behind. When the FA release their next ranking of averages, three countries will break in the top 70.

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Three matches left - all CHAN qualifiers (friendlies for FIFA ranking purposes): Zambia - Botswana, Namibia - Mozambique and Zimbabwe - Mauritius.

This is how the points could change for these 6 teams:

Zambia (L: 538, D: 542, W: 550)
Botswana (L: 339, D: 348, W: 365)
Mozambique (L: 314, D: 319, W: 328)
Zimbabwe (L: 288, D: 292, W: 299)
Namibia (L: 219, D: 226, W: 240)
Mauritius (L: 70, D: 82, W: 106)

In the table below, the values displayed for these 6 teams are the lowest possible, thus even if they lose, their totals won't drop.