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Friday, August 23, 2013

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Uzbekistan will advance to the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup playoff.

The pots for the CAF playoff draw will be:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Cameroon, South Africa, Senegal

Northern Ireland will climb 40 spots, Benin 25, Poland 20.

Suriname will drop 34 spots, Puerto Rico 29, Slovakia 22, Scotland 18.


Probable September 2013 rank - Team - Probable September 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1536 0 52
2 Argentina 1263 2 53
3 Germany 1261 -1 4
4 Colombia 1223 -1 4
5 Italy 1199 1 57
6 Belgium 1159 4 80
7 Netherlands 1111 -2 -54
8 Brazil 1067 1 -22
9 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1049 4 54
10 Portugal 1029 -3 -70
11 Croatia 1024 -3 -74
12 Greece 1016 -1 -22
13 USA 1012 6 52
14 Uruguay 1008 -2 10
15 Russia 968 1 -11
16 Switzerland 967 -1 -20
17 Chile 952 4 81
18 England 947 -4 -47
19 Côte d'Ivoire 941 -1 -21
20 Ecuador 913 -3 -59
21 Mexico 886 -1 7
22 France 859 1 21
23 Romania 846 10 114
24 Czech Republic 838 2 41
25 Ghana 835 -1 5
26 Denmark 825 1 37
27 Peru 805 -5 -50
28 Ukraine 799 0 25
29 Sweden 771 1 6
30 Mali 757 2 22
31 Slovenia 754 14 120
32 Panama 751 8 72
33 Hungary 744 -2 -5
34 Norway 741 -9 -60
35 Montenegro 721 -7 -53
36 Costa Rica 712 6 61
37 Nigeria 709 -2 9
38 Algeria 707 -4 -23
39 Albania 693 -1 4
40 Wales 690 6 60
41 Paraguay 673 8 59
42 Japan 671 -5 -24
43 Cape Verde Islands 660 -7 -36
44 Tunisia 643 9 47
45 Iran 633 7 32
46 Republic of Ireland 630 -2 -9
46 Uzbekistan 630 13 64
48 Burkina Faso 628 0 10
49 Honduras 624 -6 -16
50 Venezuela 618 -11 -70
51 Egypt 611 10 67
52 Poland 610 20 117
53 Australia 603 -7 -27
54 Serbia 589 -13 -72
55 Korea Republic 588 1 -6
56 Cameroon 580 -5 -24
57 Israel 565 6 25
58 Austria 561 -3 -34
59 Bulgaria 549 -6 -47
60 South Africa 544 7 14
61 Finland 540 4 3
62 Senegal 534 16 82
63 New Zealand 532 -6 -50
64 Zambia 526 -4 -24
65 Bolivia 517 -1 -21
66 Turkey 499 -8 -74
67 Sierra Leone 497 13 54
68 Scotland 496 -18 -114
69 Northern Ireland 495 40 188
70 Guinea 487 -2 -39
71 Togo 486 11 50
72 Haiti 471 2 -5
73 Morocco 464 2 -10
74 Libya 462 -5 -56
75 Belarus 458 -2 -24
75 Uganda 458 2 -10
77 FYR Macedonia 457 12 62
77 Iceland 457 -7 -42
79 United Arab Emirates 455 5 26
80 Jordan 454 -9 -41
81 Armenia 447 -15 -87
82 Gabon 443 -1 3
83 Cuba 438 7 49
84 Slovakia 422 -22 -120
85 Trinidad and Tobago 414 -7 -38
86 Angola 410 12 46
87 Jamaica 407 -11 -62
88 Benin 398 25 96
89 Dominican Republic 395 -3 -26
90 Congo 388 2 3
91 El Salvador 386 -8 -45
92 New Caledonia 383 1 6
93 Oman 382 2 12
94 Estonia 368 -9 -55
95 Central African Republic 367 -7 -31
96 Equatorial Guinea 363 3 15
97 China PR 362 -2 -8
97 Congo DR 362 -10 -45
99 Ethiopia 359 3 21
100 Georgia 352 -3 -17
101 Saudi Arabia 344 6 28
102 Canada 343 -11 -43
103 Botswana 337 -2 -2
104 Guatemala 335 -11 -42
105 Niger 332 0 9
106 Iraq 325 -2 -3
107 Qatar 320 4 15
108 Zimbabwe 319 8 27
109 Korea DPR 317 1 11
110 Antigua and Barbuda 303 11 31
111 Lithuania 299 -5 -22
112 Kuwait 296 0 -8
113 Liberia 295 -10 -40
114 Latvia 288 5 8
115 Tajikistan 281 -1 -20
116 Azerbaijan 277 -1 -21
117 Bahrain 271 0 -15
117 Kenya 271 12 28
119 Malawi 269 -1 -14
120 Grenada 268 2 4
121 Mozambique 265 -13 -49
122 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 263 11 25
123 Burundi 256 3 5
124 Lebanon 254 -4 -23
124 Turkmenistan 254 1 0
126 Namibia 239 5 -1
127 Moldova 237 -4 -19
127 Tanzania 237 1 -12
129 Guyana 234 -2 -16
129 Sudan 234 6 6
131 Rwanda 233 0 -7
132 Kazakhstan 227 17 55
133 Cyprus 225 -10 -31
134 Suriname 223 -34 -121
135 St. Kitts and Nevis 212 3 -6
136 St. Lucia 210 6 3
137 Afghanistan 206 2 -8
137 Thailand 206 0 -17
139 Philippines 200 2 -8
140 Malta 199 -6 -37
140 Syria 199 7 25
142 Kyrgyzstan 186 -7 -42
143 Maldives 185 10 35
144 Belize 184 -1 -21
145 Tahiti 182 9 35
146 Luxembourg 179 -6 -31
147 Hong Kong 167 -3 -13
147 India 167 -2 -10
149 Palestine 164 1 -4
150 Gambia 160 13 36
151 Barbados 157 -5 -18
152 Lesotho 144 8 9
152 Nicaragua 144 6 6
152 Vietnam 144 4 5
155 Liechtenstein 142 -7 -31
156 Bermuda 139 0 0
157 Chad 138 3 3
158 Singapore 134 -3 -8
159 Puerto Rico 129 -29 -112
160 Malaysia 128 2 -5
161 Myanmar 124 4 4
162 Sao Tome e Principe 120 3 0
163 Aruba 114 4 0
163 Mauritania 114 -12 -45
165 Dominica 112 -2 -12
166 Bangladesh 111 -8 -27
167 Sri Lanka 108 3 13
168 Solomon Islands 105 -16 -47
169 Indonesia 102 0 3
170 Nepal 98 0 3
171 Pakistan 95 -4 -19
172 Laos 84 0 0
173 Yemen 80 0 -3
174 Curacao 72 7 11
175 Mauritius 71 -1 -11
176 Chinese Taipei 70 0 -5
176 Guam 70 1 -1
178 Samoa 62 10 16
179 Madagascar 57 6 7
180 Guinea-Bissau 56 2 -2
181 Vanuatu 53 -3 -14
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 1 0
182 Faroe Islands 52 -7 -29
182 Timor-Leste 52 1 0
185 Mongolia 49 2 0
186 Swaziland 48 -6 -14
187 Fiji 47 -2 -3
188 American Samoa 43 6 13
188 Tonga 43 1 0
190 US Virgin Islands 42 0 0
191 Bahamas 40 0 0
192 Cayman Islands 36 0 3
193 Comoros 33 -1 0
193 Montserrat 33 -14 -33
195 Eritrea 24 0 0
196 Seychelles 23 -1 -1
197 British Virgin Islands 21 1 0
197 Papua New Guinea 21 0 -2
199 Cambodia 20 0 0
200 Andorra 16 5 8
201 Somalia 14 -1 0
202 Macau 13 -1 0
203 Cook Islands 11 1 2
203 Djibouti 11 -1 0
205 South Sudan 10 -2 0
206 Anguilla 2 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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58 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 23, 2013 at 9:48 AM

    look at the 9. place. WOW... i love you bosnia!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 26, 2013 at 12:09 AM

      just if Bosnia wins both games vs Slovakia

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 27, 2013 at 3:41 AM

      that is a very hard task. Yes they are capable and yes they have the quality over Slovakia, but to win both games against a very good opponent (hamshik/skirtel/etc) is a tough ask for any national side.

      having said that bosnians should go for it. not just aim for wc qualification, but aim to break all the records too (top 10 finish / best yugo team)...

      Delete
    3. AnonymousAugust 29, 2013 at 12:39 AM

      Do you even follow football? Ha Ha
      The way Slovakia are going Liechtenstein will finish above them.

      See you in Brazil, Bosnia!

      Delete
    4. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 10:54 AM

      Despite the way they are going, Slovakia surprised you, didn't they?

      Delete
  2. EdAugust 23, 2013 at 11:56 AM

    Edgar,

    good to have you back ! Hope you've enjoyed your holiday.

    September is also an important month for Romania. They could make a nice jump if they can realise the predicted wins against Turkey and Hungary. And in the meantime also take a firm grip on second spot in the group.

    Then they can really start harassing France for the fourth seeded play-off spot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarAugust 23, 2013 at 2:03 PM

      Thanks Ed!

      My kids certainly have - they love going to the beach. Me and my wife are just glad to be back at home, in familiar surroundings.

      Can't quite see Romania getting 6 points - is that unpatriotic of me? :)

      Delete
    2. EdAugust 23, 2013 at 3:55 PM

      Unpatriotic ? not really. It just plain pessimistic !

      Or is this another case of the common misperception about pessimism being confused with realism :)

      Delete
    3. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 10:43 AM

      It seems I was right - Romania managed just 3 points.

      Delete
  3. Karl SchrimmerAugust 23, 2013 at 1:42 PM

    The list is biased.

    I personally don't think you can calculate this September table. There are endless games to be played until then, especially in Europe with qualification games on September 6th and 10th.

    You could have made a table with rankings for today, August 23rd based on PAST matches.

    What you did here is to guess the winners and losers for early September matches.
    No-one can predict the future accurately.

    I would have been more interested in an actual (current) possible rankings list by taking account of the matches that have already HAPPENED. That could be more accurate.

    Otherwise this list here is rather what you'd like to see in September.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarAugust 23, 2013 at 1:49 PM

      Thanks for sharing your opinion, Karl. I don't expect to please everyone.

      Delete
    2. EdgarAugust 23, 2013 at 1:54 PM

      Karl, just out of curiosity. Is my visit tracker right? Are you based in Romania?

      Delete
    3. EdAugust 23, 2013 at 3:37 PM

      Karl,

      first of all, the predicted results are no personal predictions of Edgar, but they were calculated using the elo rating. So it's a rather unpersonal and even quite objective way to try to predict the future.

      Second, anyone can calculate the ranking based on results of matches already played. But that would lead to an intermediate ranking anyway. As you said, there are still a lot of matches to be played, matches which all will count for the September ranking.

      The prediction part makes it much more interesting, in my opinion, because it tries to give at this moment a realistic preview of the resulting September ranking.
      Of course, not all predictions will be correct (otherwise Edgar would be a big time millionaire by now :D) but that really doesn't matter. The predictions could be interpreted as a best guess for the results of a match, given the strengths of the teams involved.

      In that way this list is certainly not biased.

      Delete
    4. AnonymousAugust 23, 2013 at 6:59 PM

      Karl must be new here. Perhaps he should lurk before he leaps.

      Delete
  4. LorricAugust 23, 2013 at 10:32 PM

    England 18th. Pffft. We weren't even that low (I don't think) when we failed to qualify for Euro 2008... Oh well, I'm always interested in the reactions. If nothing else, it might help with cutting down expectation and just getting the fans behind the team for these crucial home qualifiers. And I'd be happy with the results, avoiding defeat to Ukraine.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdAugust 24, 2013 at 8:41 AM

      Indeed, England's lowest ebb in 2008 was at 15th spot.

      It is just that this last year they haven't scored heavy in their qualifiers (the place to be if you want to collect match points). Matches against San Marino and Moldova are always nice for your self-confidence, but they don't contribute anything in the ranking department. On the contrary ....

      Big scoring occasions against Ukraine, Poland and Montenegro were all squandered this last year with draws. Symptomatic: the best scoring match for England in the last time frame is the friendly win against Italy in August 2012 with 582 match points!

      Delete
    2. LorricAugust 25, 2013 at 5:23 AM

      Heh, I bet you don't see that often. A team in contention to win a qualifying group, undefeated in said group 6 games in, has a friendly as their top scoring fixture! :)

      England's last competitive defeat was to the Germans in the last World Cup! They're on an 18 game undefeated streak in competitive games (W10, D8), which if Edgar's predictions are true will extend to 20 games (W11, D9) yet still see England in 18th!

      Don't get me wrong, I understand perfectly why it is what it is, but it's quite a funny set of stats. Elo has England at 6th.

      Delete
    3. EdAugust 25, 2013 at 9:46 AM

      Lorric, I admire your sense of humor!

      A lot of fans would be thoroughly displeased with the FIFA for such a 'bad' ranking system and would not even try to understand why the ranking works how it works.

      Anyway, no doubt about it, this is an example of the elo ranking giving a more realistic view on strengths than FIFA's.

      Delete
    4. Daniel BurnierAugust 25, 2013 at 2:04 PM

      Drawing doesn't bring you a lot of points... despite being unbeaten for so long time, England got extremely poor results in its las official matches.

      WC 2010 only 1 win (against Slovenia) and EURO 2012 (wins against Sweden and Ukraine).

      In the qualification for the WC 2014, as Ed pointed out, only wins against san marino and moldova and draws against mid-level teams.

      I don't think that England's ranking is unfair, as it doesn't beat an important side officialy for ages.

      Delete
    5. JeroenAugust 25, 2013 at 2:36 PM

      It's a conspiracy:
      - England is rated 6th (ELO) and 18th (here)
      - Belgium is rated 18th (here) and 6th (ELO)

      We are invading/imitating England's football in every way, just a little bit better :)

      Now serious: ELO reacts often a bit to slow, FIFA-ranking a bit too fast. Mix both and it's a perfect ranking :).

      1 Spain 2097 1536 3633
      2 Germany 2020 1261 3281
      3 Argentina 1991 1263 3254
      4 Brazil 2087 1067 3154
      5 Colombia 1895 1223 3118
      6 Italy 1902 1199 3101
      7 Netherlands 1983 1111 3094
      8 Belgium 1809 1159 2968
      9 Portugal 1884 1029 2913
      10 England 1924 947 2871
      11 Croatia 1841 1024 2865
      12 USA 1852 1012 2864
      13 Uruguay 1850 1008 2858
      14 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1771 1049 2820
      15 Greece 1790 1016 2806
      16 Russia 1817 968 2785
      17 Chile 1832 952 2784
      18 Switzerland 1806 967 2773
      19 Côte d'Ivoire 1805 941 2746
      20 Ecuador 1827 913 2740

      Delete
    6. LorricAugust 25, 2013 at 3:23 PM

      A nice idea!

      I expect the flagellents we have over here will start whipping themselves up into a frenzy and talking about how shit we are and the ranking is deserved and maybe even should be lower... assuming the results go as predicted by Edgar, of course.

      England and the 18th rank are sort of not in the best position to judge right now. If they end up 18th next ranking, it will be the ranking after that will be the more accurate one. If England win the group, then they'll finally have that competitive win, maybe two, over sides inside the top 100. If they fail, then perhaps another wait will be required to see if they can win the playoff, unless they get eliminated completely. Then the ranking will be justified if they fail to qualify, and should be improved if the succeed.

      Delete
  5. vedadpasicAugust 24, 2013 at 1:16 PM

    Quick question though Edgar - as Bosnia made 6 substitutions vs USA in the recent friendly, doesn't that mean it will not count for the ranking and based on the assumption that Bosnia beats Slovakia twice that we would have 1135 points?

    Cheers and as ever, thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. vedadpasicAugust 24, 2013 at 1:20 PM

      Ditto for Croatia vs Liechtenstein?

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 24, 2013 at 3:43 PM

      6 is maximum so why not ? maybe if bosnia made 7 subs then it wouldn't count cuz it's against the rule of 6 maximum subs
      i'm not so sure though .. edgar knows better

      Delete
    3. EdAugust 24, 2013 at 5:22 PM

      vedadpasic, maximum is 6 subs per team to get a match included in the ranking calculations.
      Ditto for Croatia :)

      Delete
  6. AnonymousAugust 25, 2013 at 12:56 PM

    Edgar, using the fifa interactive tool it says that even if Wales loses both games we'll have 716 points. Have you included the draw with Ireland?

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdAugust 25, 2013 at 10:09 PM

    Wales had 630 points in August and has 716 points right now, so with the draw against Ireland included.
    Two losses against Macedonia and Serbia early September will result in 606 points; two wins in 859 points. Just as Edgar presents in his September ranking preview. With the two draws elo predicts Wales will have 690 points in September (presented in this post).
    The FIFA-tool gives exactly the same results.

    What is your question ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. JeroenAugust 26, 2013 at 7:50 AM

    minimum & maximum rankings, based on Edgar's posts :):

    Edgar's rank - country - max ranking - min ranking
    1 Spain 1 1
    2 Germany 2 7
    3 Colombia 2 12
    4 Argentina 2 5
    5 Netherlands 4 17
    6 Italy 2 12
    7 Portugal 4 20
    8 Croatia 3 19
    9 Brazil 4 16
    10 Belgium 3 13
    11 Greece 7 24
    12 Uruguay 4 21
    13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 6 36
    14 England 7 30
    15 Switzerland 4 37
    16 Russia 10 37
    17 Ecuador 6 35
    18 Côte d'Ivoire 13 25
    19 USA 7 22
    20 Mexico 12 32
    21 Chile 8 27
    22 Peru 11 47
    23 France 15 52
    24 Ghana 15 39
    25 Norway 18 58
    26 Czech Republic 9 46
    27 Denmark 18 49
    28 Montenegro 16 48
    28 Ukraine 14 48
    30 Sweden 18 50
    31 Hungary 15 58
    32 Mali 20 47
    33 Romania 17 64
    34 Algeria 22 57
    35 Nigeria 28 56
    36 Cape Verde Islands 23 58
    37 Japan 34 61
    38 Albania 13 58
    39 Venezuela 17 74
    40 Panama 22 54
    41 Serbia 22 84
    42 Costa Rica 23 58
    43 Honduras 28 66
    44 Republic of Ireland 23 75
    45 Slovenia 23 73
    46 Australia 39 66
    46 Wales 15 66
    48 Burkina Faso 41 68
    49 Paraguay 18 75
    50 Scotland 32 88
    51 Cameroon 45 87
    52 Iran 39 61
    53 Bulgaria 32 84
    53 Tunisia 39 71
    55 Austria 22 82
    56 Korea Republic 41 76
    57 New Zealand 48 85
    58 Turkey 41 89
    59 Uzbekistan 33 82
    60 Zambia 46 83
    61 Egypt 42 78
    62 Slovakia 30 95
    63 Israel 30 84
    64 Bolivia 26 83
    65 Finland 23 83
    66 Armenia 24 91
    67 South Africa 52 84
    68 Guinea 47 86
    69 Libya 45 90
    70 Iceland 31 96
    71 Jordan 53 92
    72 Poland 42 87
    73 Belarus 51 91
    74 Haiti 62 87
    75 Morocco 52 90
    76 Jamaica 45 97
    77 Uganda 58 90
    78 Senegal 53 93
    78 Trinidad and Tobago 72 96
    80 Sierra Leone 62 97
    81 Gabon 53 91
    82 Togo 64 93
    83 El Salvador 88 102
    84 United Arab Emirates 68 96
    85 Estonia 47 108
    86 Dominican Republic 86 99
    87 Congo DR 67 114
    88 Central African Republic 76 118
    89 FYR Macedonia 46 99
    90 Cuba 75 92
    91 Canada 97 120
    92 Congo 80 110
    93 Guatemala 93 117
    93 New Caledonia 89 105
    95 China PR 94 117
    95 Oman 90 106
    97 Georgia 47 122
    98 Angola 81 114
    99 Equatorial Guinea 55 112
    100 Suriname 131 142

    ReplyDelete
  9. Daniel BurnierAugust 27, 2013 at 11:14 AM

    It would be funny if Switzerland, Ecuador and Bosnia finish in the top 8. I would like to see what FIFA would come up with to change "slightly" the seeding system...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JeroenAugust 27, 2013 at 12:42 PM

      Switzerland and/or Ecuador can be candidates, i wouldn't put my bet on Bosnia, since they can't gain a lot of points in october.

      Delete
  10. JeroenAugust 27, 2013 at 2:24 PM

    fwiw: teams which are (in theory) still able to finish on 8th place in october's FIFA ranking. "in theory" means: they win all games, other teams lose all remaining games (which would mean an Andorra victory over the Netherlands f.i.)

    Spain
    Colombia
    Argentina
    Germany
    Croatia
    Belgium
    Uruguay
    Italy
    Switzerland
    Netherlands
    Ecuador
    Chile
    England
    Portugal
    Brazil
    USA
    Peru
    Albania
    Bosnia-Herzegovina
    Czech Republic
    Mexico
    Wales
    Paraguay
    Greece
    Sweden
    Ukraine
    Côte d'Ivoire
    Armenia
    Norway
    France
    Montenegro
    Russia
    Hungary


    If you'd cap the list after USA, i guess you'd have a realistic 16 teams to end up in the top 8 (with only Spain to be a 100% certitude)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Mr. A.G.August 27, 2013 at 10:22 PM

    Has anyone figured out which teams would automatically qualify for the World Cup with the predicted results?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdAugust 28, 2013 at 9:57 AM

      host: Brazil

      UEFA nr 1 in group:
      Belgium
      Italy
      Germany
      Netherlands
      Switzerland
      Russia
      Bosnia-Herzegovina
      England
      Spain

      AFC nrs 1-2 in both groups:
      Iran
      Korea Republic
      Japan
      Australia

      CONCACAF nrs 1-3 in group:
      USA
      Costa Rica
      Mexico

      CONMEBOL nrs 1-4 in group:
      Argentina
      Colombia
      Ecuador
      Chile

      winner CONCACAF-OFC play-off: Panama (against New Zealand)
      winner CONMEBOL-AFC play-off: Venezuela (against Uzbekistan)

      For the CAF play-offs are qualified (seeding based on September ranking):
      pot 1:
      Cote d'Ivoire
      Ghana
      Algeria
      Nigeria
      Tunisia

      pot 2:
      Burkina Faso
      Egypt
      Cameroon
      South Africa
      Senegal

      For the UEFA play-offs are qualified (seeding based on October ranking):
      pot 1:
      Croatia
      Portugal
      Greece
      France

      pot 2:
      Romania
      Ukraine
      Sweden
      Bulgaria

      This list is based on Elo predictions for all remaining matches up until and including October 15th, except of course the first legs of the CAF playoffs.

      Delete
    2. JeroenAugust 28, 2013 at 11:25 AM

      So Uruguay or Romania would be the highest ranked non-qualifier, if all turns out the way it's predicted.

      Delete
    3. Daniel BurnierAugust 28, 2013 at 12:50 PM

      Jeroen, did you also simulate the UEFA play-offs between these 8 countries?

      Delete
    4. EdAugust 28, 2013 at 2:10 PM

      Daniel, the CAF and UEFA play-offs can't be simulated because the pairing is not known yet.
      The two legs of the CAF play-offs are scheduled October 10th and November 14th. The two legs of the UEFA play-offs are scheduled November 14th and 19th, so after the October ranking is published.
      No need to simulate them if the seeding for the final draw is based on the October ranking.

      Delete
    5. Mr. A.G.September 2, 2013 at 3:52 AM

      Thank you for your answer, Ed.

      Should these predictions stand (and assuming all teams from pot one advance in the UEFA and CAF playoffs), it's interesting to note how the qualifications continue to be too harsh on the European teams and way too lenient on Asia.

      Of the teams that would qualify for the World Cup without currently being in the top 32 in the FIFA rankings, one comes from South America (Venezuela), two from CONCACAF (Panama and Costa Rica), three from Africa (Algeria, Nigeria, and Tunisia), and all four from Asia (Japan, Australia, Iran, Korea).

      On the other hand, these are the teams excluded from the World Cup even though they rank in the top 32 in the World: one from Africa (Mali), two from South America (Uruguay and Peru), and a whopping seven from Europe (Norway, Czech Republic, Denmark, Montenegro, Ukraine, Sweden, and Hungary).

      Quite clearly Europe deserves more spots in the World Cup and Asia should get less. Of course it's never going to happen because FIFA plays politics, not football.

      Delete
    6. JeroenSeptember 2, 2013 at 7:54 AM

      Being from the heart of Europe, and from a country who had a hard time qualifying, i wouldn't want more UEFA-teams. It's a WORLD Cup, not a "best 32 teams"-cup. If so, you'd probably could form 2 Brasilian teams :).

      If you just want the best football, without thinking of mondialisation, you'd just have a UEFA-Conmebol Cup every 2 years with the best 4 Conmebol teams and the best 12 UEFA teams (ok, 1 or 2 teams from other continents might join them, but i took the easiest way).

      If you want to promote football, you have to include other nations and over-rate them in order to attract enough interest from other countries.

      Beware, this doesn't mean i like the WC 2022 in Qatar. Playing over there in summer is deadly.

      Delete
    7. Daniel BurnierSeptember 2, 2013 at 10:55 AM

      I completely agree with Jeroen... based only on rankings and WC results we would have a WC with only European and South American teams.

      Even the worst team in South America is way better than many Asian, African and European teams. Does that mean SA should have 10 spots? of course not.

      I believe the problem is the UEFA qualification procedure... It would need a reformulation to be more accurate and fairer.

      Of course it will never be as fair as the South American (because there we have only 10 sides). but it could be improved for sure.

      Delete
    8. EdSeptember 2, 2013 at 1:56 PM

      I'm with Jeroen here also.

      Daniel, what's so wrong about the current UEFA qualification procedure ? If you want to get to 13 out of 53, what's your more accurate and fairer proposal ?

      Delete
    9. JeroenSeptember 2, 2013 at 2:48 PM

      In order to be more accurate, it would require more competitive games vs "top"-european teams. You'd have to have a pre-qualifying tournament (f.e. during the WC/EC) in order to reduce the number of european teams from 53 to f.i. 36 teams (6x6). best 2 teams qualify for WC (+f.i. playoff between the 4 best 3rd's for the remaining place), best 4 of each group could go to EC.

      Although, i think it's kind of nice/fairer to see Andorra fighting Spain :).

      Delete
    10. LorricSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:17 PM

      I must be unusual then. To me, the World Cup should be for the best 32 teams in the WORLD. People shouldn't be getting a free ride because they're in a continent full of weak teams. They should either get their football program up to the level required to be among the top 32 footballing nations in the World, or they shouldn't be there.

      However, I also recognise it would be logistically impossible to dothis right now. You'd need qualifying groups on a World-wide scale. See something like a double header with England playing a home game against Mozambique, then an away qualifier at Panama... it's just not viable.

      Delete
    11. LorricSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:32 PM

      But just for fun, here's how I would do it if you could.

      CONCACAF would follow it's normal qualifying procedure until you had 12 teams.

      Africa would follow 2010's qualifying procedure until there were 20 teams.

      Asia would follow the normal procedure, except the third round would have 7 groups instead of 5, so there would be 14 teams.

      Oceania would follow the normal procedure until there were 4 teams.

      South America would get all 10 teams in.

      Europe would weed out a few teams to 45 teams left.

      45+10+14+4+20+12=105

      105/7 = 15.

      15 groups of 7 teams. Top 2 plus host plus best runner up to the World Cup. If you need an extra team for the host slot, Europe gets 46.

      Delete
    12. LorricSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:35 PM

      EDIT: Best third place, not best runner up.

      Delete
    13. LorricSeptember 2, 2013 at 5:45 PM

      You could also go 90 teams for 15 groups of 6.

      To get this, Oceania would lose 2 teams (qualifying procedure would be modified to winner of the Pacific Games [I think that's what they call that qualifying tourament], and winner of a playoff between the runner up and New Zealand.)

      Africa would lose 4 teams, Asia would lose 2 teams, and Europe would lose 7 teams.

      Delete
    14. JeroenSeptember 3, 2013 at 6:57 AM

      "However, I also recognise it would be logistically impossible to dothis right now. You'd need qualifying groups on a World-wide scale. See something like a double header with England playing a home game against Mozambique, then an away qualifier at Panama... it's just not viable."

      you could solve this the way they are doing this in many sports: create qualifying tournaments in 1 city/country. F.e. England, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Fiji, Uzbekistan and Mali playing a qualifying tournament in Mali (one of the participating countries is usually the host). You should be able to play 5 games (no home-away) with 6 countries in 2 weeks.

      Delete
    15. Daniel BurnierSeptember 3, 2013 at 1:24 PM

      I don't like the idea to mix confederations for qualification purposes... it is like to make a World Cup before the World Cup itself.

      The UEFA qualification should have different stages, with a final stage with no more then 30 teams - I am sure we would have much more interesting matches, as Jeroen pointed out.

      Delete
    16. LorricSeptember 3, 2013 at 4:51 PM

      @ Jereon

      You could do that. But I would intensely dislike it. Less games, no fans except for the host, huge advantage for the host.

      @ Daniel

      That is exactly why I would like it! :)

      I like the Euro qualifying as it is, but I would have 7 groups if I was in charge.

      Delete
    17. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 10:56 AM

      Yes Lorric, it's not viable. We need teleportation :)

      Delete
  12. HosamAugust 28, 2013 at 1:18 AM

    What is the chances of Egypt to be seeded?
    only Tunisia & Cap Verde drawn?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdAugust 28, 2013 at 10:23 AM

      Well Hossam,

      besides major upsets like Zambia eliminating Ghana or Malawi eliminating Nigeria, Egypt's best bet is indeed a draw between Tunisia and Cape Verde. Tunisia qualifies then with 601 points.

      Burkina Faso's loss in the friendly against South Africa helped Egypt a lot. Burkina Faso can now only reach 607 points with a win against Gabon and Egypt can reach 611 points with a win against Guinea.

      So, if there are no more new friendlies planned, Egypt is seeded with a Tunisia draw or with a major upset (and of course always a home win against Guinea).

      Delete
    2. EdAugust 28, 2013 at 10:42 AM

      Things can change fast: I just discovered that Burkina Faso has planned a new friendly against Nigeria on September 10th. With wins against Gabon and Nigeria Burkina Faso ends at 628 points. A draw against Nigeria leaves Burkina Faso at 614 points, still above Egypt's 611.

      Delete
  13. AnonymousSeptember 8, 2013 at 12:01 PM

    Poland 72-> 52 0.o Poland the best !

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousSeptember 10, 2013 at 1:47 PM

    Hi Edgar,
    Did Holland lose some valuable points with their draw vs. Estonia? What is needed by them to not be overtaken by Bosnia/Croatia/Portugal? in the November/December FIFA ranking. As I'm counting on that ranking to be used for Group-placements(or will previous results in WC also give 50% of that decision?)

    Absolutely great work!

    Ricardo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdSeptember 10, 2013 at 2:02 PM

      Ricardo,
      last time around (for the WC 2010) the October 2009 ranking was the only criterium to seed the top 7 teams + host.
      In an article today (http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/09/2014-fifa-world-cup-final-seeding.html?showComment=1378806642882#c5014679903459899567) it said that December 3rd the decision will be made about the seeding procedure for Brazil.

      The Netherlands sure lost some valuable points (from a predicted 1175 to a predicted 1119 in October) and their seeding is now very much in danger. Probably one of Belgium/Croatia and Uruguay or Portugal (or maybe England) can overtake them with an unexpected win.
      The Netherlands needs to win all three remaining qualifiers anyhow, otherwise they will end well below the 1100 points in October and that seems like the minimum number of points to make a chance at a seeded spot.

      Delete
    2. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 11:48 AM

      @Ricardo From Bert's forum?

      @Ed Thanks!

      Delete
  15. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 3:43 PM

    Ethiopia 99 no absolutely wrong first you have to be check it your performance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarSeptember 13, 2013 at 11:49 AM

      It's just a probable ranking based on results generated using the Elo ratings. See at the top of the post.

      Delete

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