More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
15.39% - South Africa
9.8% - Cameroon
9.21% - Portugal
9% - Cape Verde Islands
4.67% - Panama
3.13% - Uganda
Most declined:
-12.73% - Russia
-10.12% - Libya
-7.47% - Ethiopia
-7.35% - Tunisia
-4.45% - Burkina Faso
-3.14% - New Zealand
Argentina qualified in all the 10000 simulations.
100% - Argentina
99.89% - Netherlands
99.65% - Colombia
99.35% - Germany
99.25% - USA
98.74% - Spain
96.06% - Ecuador
95.96% - Italy
94.88% - Costa Rica
94.51% - Switzerland
92.55% - Chile
90.54% - Belgium
88.09% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
86.33% - Mexico
83.94% - Côte d'Ivoire
81.66% - England
79.5% - Russia
75.44% - Portugal
66.36% - Croatia
63.37% - Nigeria
61.94% - Greece
59.62% - Ghana
56.69% - France
56.46% - Ukraine
54.47% - Egypt
54.45% - Algeria
43.03% - Uruguay
42.15% - Honduras
41.52% - Tunisia
41.48% - New Zealand
34.46% - Panama
30.7% - Sweden
27% - Cameroon
23.43% - Senegal
22.12% - Venezuela
22.07% - Romania
19.46% - Peru
18.46% - Uzbekistan
16.01% - Burkina Faso
15.52% - Norway
15.39% - South Africa
14.59% - Czech Republic
14.02% - Bulgaria
12.07% - Uganda
11.48% - Hungary
10.9% - Libya
10.71% - Republic of Ireland
10.23% - Ethiopia
9.72% - Congo
9% - Cape Verde Islands
8.57% - Jordan
8.29% - Montenegro
6.65% - Zambia
5.92% - Israel
5.51% - Albania
5.49% - Austria
2.61% - Denmark
2.59% - Poland
2.24% - Iceland
1.45% - Jamaica
1.34% - Malawi
1.15% - Slovenia
0.7% - Finland
0.62% - Gabon
0.62% - Turkey
0.27% - Botswana
0.19% - Armenia
0.18% - Slovakia
0.15% - Serbia
0.08% - Paraguay
0.07% - Cyprus
0.03% - Wales
0.02% - Bolivia
0.02% - Georgia
0.01% - Estonia
0.01% - Northern Ireland
Edgar,
ReplyDeletemaybe I've missed it in your first 'Roads to Brazil'-post, but can you explain a bit more about simulating the play-offs in order to determine all the qualified teams.
Specific, what is your approach in determining the play-off pairings ? If I'm not mistaken, you need pairings if you want to determine the resulting qualification chance.
Random draw.
DeleteI know South Africa is now 0% but it says they have improved 15.39% ... to 15.39%?! So they were 0% before?
ReplyDeleteWhen it was 0 ?? As you can see here ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_CAF_Second_Round#cite_note-botswana-ethiopia-4 ),
DeleteFIFA awarded Botswana a 3–0 win as a result of Ethiopia fielding the ineligible player Minyahil Teshome. The match originally ended 2–1 to Ethiopia played on 8 June. This change give South Africa mathematically chances to qualify.
Yes,
ReplyDeleteOn the 21st of June, they were eliminated due to the victory of Ethiopa vs Botswana (2-1), and as such had 0% chance to qualify. Later, FIFA awarded Botswana 3 points, 'cause Ethiopia fielded an ineligible player. Ethiopia lost 3 points, and South African qualification suddenly was possible again
Ah thanks to both of you for the clarification!!
ReplyDeleteYes, thank you both!
Delete