More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Pot 2:
78.22% -Egypt
72.58% -Cameroon
64.29% -Senegal
57.78% -Congo
56.55% -Ethiopia
40.83% -South Africa
35.71% -Uganda
29.62% -Burkina Faso
25.73% -Libya
14.64% -Tunisia
12.19% -Zambia
6.69% -Malawi
2.62% -Botswana
2.55% -Gabon
Pot 1:
100% -Algeria
100% -Côte d'Ivoire
93.31% -Nigeria
84.79% -Ghana
66.17% -Tunisia
21.78% -Egypt
19.19% -Cape Verde Islands
10.05% -Burkina Faso
3.02% -Zambia
1.38% -Libya
0.31% -Cameroon
Another way to look at this is chances of being seeded if a team qualifies to the final stage:
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
100% - Nigeria
100% - Ghana
100% - Cape Verde Islands
81.88% - Tunisia
25.33% - Burkina Faso
21.78% - Egypt
19.86% - Zambia
5.09% - Libya
0.43% - Cameroon
0% - Senegal
0% - Congo
0% - Ethiopia
0% - South Africa
0% - Uganda
0% - Malawi
0% - Botswana
0% - Gabon
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