2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

38.92% - Group B
37.22% - Group E
8.2% - Group D
7.6% - Group C
3.9% - Group A
2.28% - Group H
1.29% - Group I
0.45% - Group F
0.14% - Group G




Worst runner-up:

20.05% - Norway
18.38% - Bulgaria
14.02% - Czech Republic
9.55% - Albania
5.51% - Denmark
4.82% - Hungary
4.51% - Slovenia
3.71% - Croatia
3.05% - Republic of Ireland
2.81% - Romania
2.42% - Iceland
2.28% - Austria
2.27% - Sweden
1.11% - France
0.96% - Montenegro
0.75% - Italy
0.56% - Ukraine
0.49% - Turkey
0.44% - Poland
0.38% - Cyprus
0.32% - England
0.31% - Switzerland
0.26% - Armenia
0.23% - Israel
0.19% - Portugal
0.15% - Finland
0.14% - Serbia
0.11% - Greece
0.08% - Estonia
0.03% - Belgium
0.03% - Russia
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - Slovakia
0.02% - Wales
0.01% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.01% - Spain

Pot 2:

65.58% - France
44.87% - Romania
33.63% - Ukraine
30.88% - Hungary
29.15% - Sweden
26.63% - Bulgaria
24.44% - Russia
22.86% - Republic of Ireland
18.04% - Norway
15.83% - Austria
14.31% - Montenegro
11.7% - Greece
11.61% - Iceland
10.33% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
8.42% - Israel
6.77% - Albania
5.3% - Poland
5.02% - Czech Republic
3.2% - Switzerland
1.93% - Croatia
1.88% - Finland
1.8% - Slovenia
1.73% - Turkey
1.47% - Denmark
0.59% - Belgium
0.52% - Armenia
0.49% - Cyprus
0.36% - Slovakia
0.2% - Serbia
0.18% - England
0.09% - Georgia
0.08% - Netherlands
0.05% - Portugal
0.04% - Estonia
0.02% - Northern Ireland

Pot 1:

74.27% - Croatia
65.61% - Greece
56.08% - Portugal
25.98% - England
22.17% - Sweden
21.46% - France
18.83% - Belgium
17.8% - Czech Republic
17.41% - Ukraine
12.22% - Romania
11.8% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
10.43% - Russia
9.63% - Spain
9.53% - Norway
7.54% - Albania
5.25% - Italy
3.93% - Denmark
2.84% - Switzerland
1.99% - Germany
1.71% - Hungary
0.94% - Slovenia
0.9% - Montenegro
0.35% - Bulgaria
0.31% - Republic of Ireland
0.22% - Serbia
0.21% - Netherlands
0.11% - Armenia
0.1% - Israel
0.09% - Austria
0.07% - Finland
0.06% - Turkey
0.06% - Wales
0.06% - Slovakia
0.02% - Iceland
0.01% - Poland
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:

100% - Spain
100% - Italy
100% - Germany
100% - Wales
99.91% - Portugal
99.31% - England
97.47% - Croatia
96.96% - Belgium
84.87% - Greece
78% - Czech Republic
72.78% - Denmark
72.41% - Netherlands
53.32% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
52.69% - Albania
52.38% - Serbia
47.02% - Switzerland
43.2% - Sweden
34.57% - Norway
34.31% - Slovenia
34.11% - Ukraine
33.33% - Northern Ireland
29.91% - Russia
24.66% - France
21.4% - Romania
17.46% - Armenia
14.29% - Slovakia
5.92% - Montenegro
5.25% - Hungary
3.59% - Finland
3.35% - Turkey
1.34% - Republic of Ireland
1.3% - Bulgaria
1.17% - Israel
0.57% - Austria
0.19% - Poland
0.17% - Iceland
0% - Cyprus
0% - Georgia
0% - Estonia

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.