As already announced by FIFA, the October ranking will be used to seed the European teams in the play-off draw (see the simulations).
The October ranking could also be used to seed the teams in the final World Cup draw (see the simulations).
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these probable results:
Bulgaria will be the worst runner-up.
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Friday, September 20, 2013
FIFA Ranking: October 2013 probable results
Here are the probable results used for the October 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
FIFA Ranking: October 2013 preview
World Cup qualifying nearing the end - all groups will finish in October.
As already announced by FIFA, the October ranking will be used to seed the European teams in the play-off draw (see the simulations).
The October ranking could also be used to seed the teams in the final World Cup draw (see the simulations).
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
54 - Cuba
52 - Guyana
49 - Dominican Republic
39 - Myanmar
25 - Guinea
25 - Trinidad and Tobago
23 - South Africa
23 - Libya
23 - Philippines
21 - Laos
As already announced by FIFA, the October ranking will be used to seed the European teams in the play-off draw (see the simulations).
The October ranking could also be used to seed the teams in the final World Cup draw (see the simulations).
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
54 - Cuba
52 - Guyana
49 - Dominican Republic
39 - Myanmar
25 - Guinea
25 - Trinidad and Tobago
23 - South Africa
23 - Libya
23 - Philippines
21 - Laos
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (20 September 2013)
Next update: October 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
2015 UEFA Under-21 play-off seeding (20 September 2013)
Next update: October 2013.
The coefficients for the 2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship playoff draw will take into account results from:
2011 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2013 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
More info about the Under-21 coefficient on UEFA.com (PDF file).
The coefficients for the 2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship playoff draw will take into account results from:
2011 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2013 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
More info about the Under-21 coefficient on UEFA.com (PDF file).
Friday, September 13, 2013
10000 sims on the road to Brazil (13 September 2013)
More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Here's the outcome:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
Here's the outcome:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
46.67% - Uruguay
18.93% - Belgium
17.09% - Italy
7.23% - Switzerland
2.14% - Argentina
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
46.67% - Uruguay
18.93% - Belgium
17.09% - Italy
7.23% - Switzerland
2.14% - Argentina
2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.
Pot 6:
100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Malta
100% - Faroe Islands
99.99% - Liechtenstein
82.74% - Luxembourg
73.57% - Kazakhstan
43.16% - Cyprus
0.54% - Azerbaijan
I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.
Pot 6:
100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Malta
100% - Faroe Islands
99.99% - Liechtenstein
82.74% - Luxembourg
73.57% - Kazakhstan
43.16% - Cyprus
0.54% - Azerbaijan
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I
Friday, September 6, 2013
2014 FIFA World Cup: A look at the CAF play-off pots scenarios
Standings can be found on FIFA.com.
Group A
Ethiopia - Won't be seeded.
Botswana - Won't be seeded.
South Africa - need to win against Botswana and hope Ethiopia don't defeat Central African Republic at a neutral venue.
They will be in the second pot with a total between 528 and 539 (depending on the outcome of their friendly against Zimbabwe).
10000 sims on the road to Brazil (6 September 2013)
More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Here's the outcome:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
Here's the outcome:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (6 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
11.96% - Switzerland
10.55% - Argentina
6.47% - England
3.32% - Italy
2.34% - USA
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
11.96% - Switzerland
10.55% - Argentina
6.47% - England
3.32% - Italy
2.34% - USA
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (6 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
15.39% - South Africa
9.8% - Cameroon
9.21% - Portugal
9% - Cape Verde Islands
4.67% - Panama
3.13% - Uganda
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
15.39% - South Africa
9.8% - Cameroon
9.21% - Portugal
9% - Cape Verde Islands
4.67% - Panama
3.13% - Uganda
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (6 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
38.92% - Group B
37.22% - Group E
8.2% - Group D
7.6% - Group C
3.9% - Group A
2.28% - Group H
1.29% - Group I
0.45% - Group F
0.14% - Group G
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
38.92% - Group B
37.22% - Group E
8.2% - Group D
7.6% - Group C
3.9% - Group A
2.28% - Group H
1.29% - Group I
0.45% - Group F
0.14% - Group G
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (6 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Pot 2:
78.22% -Egypt
72.58% -Cameroon
64.29% -Senegal
57.78% -Congo
56.55% -Ethiopia
40.83% -South Africa
35.71% -Uganda
29.62% -Burkina Faso
25.73% -Libya
14.64% -Tunisia
12.19% -Zambia
6.69% -Malawi
2.62% -Botswana
2.55% -Gabon
Games played on September 6 are not included.
Pot 2:
78.22% -Egypt
72.58% -Cameroon
64.29% -Senegal
57.78% -Congo
56.55% -Ethiopia
40.83% -South Africa
35.71% -Uganda
29.62% -Burkina Faso
25.73% -Libya
14.64% -Tunisia
12.19% -Zambia
6.69% -Malawi
2.62% -Botswana
2.55% -Gabon