Here's an e-mail I've got from Daniel Nordquist:
I love the expectation that always comes when the draws for the
World Cup or UEFA Championship are closing up. I have made a simple page
on my domain that randomizes the draw and I am willing to share this
opportunity to more people to try it out.
You can test it at: nurp.se
Enjoy!
Confirmed: France won't be the 9th european in the special pot. The 9th european will be drawn at random from the 9 european teams, and allocated in one of thr groups with southamerican seed.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBlatter just justified this change in procedure by saying "We are in a draw, so we draw the teams". That clears that up then.
ReplyDeleteIt's the same as the procedure for 1998. Seems like a return to sanity to me
DeleteDid I ever say FIFA is a DISGRACE? Changing the rules when the teams are known. If France don't make the second round will they also change the rules so that they DO qualify? Thanks BLATINI!
ReplyDeletecould you please give us the link to the WC14 seeding rules before yesterday?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI can see that it may appear dubious that the decision was not taken till the teams are known but for me it is a return to a fairer and more sensible procedure. France may have been the 9th ranked team in October 2013 rankings but these rankings have been criticised here with some justification and out of the 9 UEFA teams there is not really a great difference in quality. France qualified on merit with a record comparable to the other UEFA teams who qualified via play-offs. France were unfortunate to have Spain in their group, Greece finished second to Bosnia in a much weaker group, so I don't see why France, or any other team, should be penalised on the vagaries of a FIFA ranking system that places disproportional emphasis on uncompetitive friendly games, especially when it is totally unecessary!! Just have 9 UEFA teams together and allocate the last one into one of four groups with seeded CONMENBOL team just like 1998 (except it was two groups with seeded CONMEBOL teams back then) FIFA have made a rod for their back with this promotion of their ranking system and seeding should be based on something closer to the UEFA model which places greatest emphasis on performance in the last two competitive tournaments. If anything, the 2006 decision to allocate Serbia to a special pot was the crazy one which has thankfully not been replicated here. Whatever the politics of the procedure for 2014 it is the correct procedure based on fairness. Otherwise we might as well list all 32 teams from 1 to 32 and allocate groups on that basis rather than bother with a draw
DeleteI agree with the comments of DanielFergus regarding the fact that France have been left in the UEFA pot. I quite like they are doing this and re-affirms the idea that it is 'luck of the draw'.
DeleteAs I've stated earlier, I don't however agree that seedings should be based on older tournaments (other than the last). The 2006 world cup has no relevance to the 2014 edition.
I also wonder if the source of the perceived chicanery came also from South American nations who don't fancy a 25% probability of ending up in a group with France and AN Other UEFA team and would rather take the chance of ending up with Greece and Bosnia rather than Italy and Netherlands?
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts as well... especially thinking that Brazil are hosts.
DeleteBrazil hosts + platini = change draw? :)
Wow.... three groups of death? B, D and G?
ReplyDeleteI think Germany's group is really tough.
By looking at the fixture of games I will risk that the final match will be Brazil - Argentina.
Of course, this may seem as wishful thinking, but the calendar really favors this final match. I hope to see this game.
This draw makes me think that Conmebol has made everything they could to make it really really hard for the big european teams.
Juan (Arg.)
According to November ranking, it would be something like this:
ReplyDeleteBRA-NED; COL-ITA; SWI-BIH; GER-RUS; SPA-CRO; URU-GRE; ARG-FRA; BEL-POR
NED-COL; SWI-GER; SPA-URU; ARG-BEL
COL-GER; SPA-ARG
GER-SPA
Ch.SPA
According to bets, something like this:
BRA-NED; COL-URU; FRA-BIH; GER-RUS; SPA-CRO; ITA-CIV/JAP; ARG-SWI; BEL-POR
BRA-COL; FRA-GER; SPA-ITA; ARG-BEL
BRA-GER; SPA-ARG
BRA-ARG
Ch. BRA
I really think that we have a lot of chances of having a Brazil-Argentina final, the draw has been very good for them both, specially Argentina. Brazil may face a strong team in 1/8 but playing at home it will be almost impossible to beat them.
Very difficult for Spain, unless winning the group; in that case it would be not so difficult to reach sem-finals (easy 1/8, hard at 1/4 but avoiding BRA, ARG, GER).
I think that GER, BRA and ARG will be at the semifinals. My bet for the fourth semifinalist, SPA-ITA-CHI-URU, one of these four tems. Not COL (one of my favourites) because I think they'll face BRA if they do not loose at 1/8 (probably they'll play against ITA or URU, maybe ENG).
Not a good draw for ENG, NED. Very good one for FRA even they could play GER at 1/4.
Anyway, we know that after all they'll be surprises, teams supposed to win their groups as 2nds or even out the WC, etc.
Juan GG
Juan,
DeleteTop 10 WC-finals as a result of my simulations:
Brazil - Spain 7,55%
Brazil - Argentina 7,51%
Brazil - Germany 4,62%
Germany - Argentina 4,36%
Brazil - Netherlands 3,50%
Brazil - Uruguay 3,36%
Spain - Germany 3,16%
Brazil - England 3,08%
Brazil - Italy 2,43%
Brazil - Portugal 2,24%
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteHi all,
ReplyDeleteI've made a prediction of the course of the World Cup next year by simulating all the matches played there 10.000 times. Each result of each match is composed of a number of goals for the 'home'-team and the number of goals for the 'away'-team. Each of those numbers of goals are drawn from a distribution based on the elo win-expectancy for the home team in the match considered.
The results of the simulations (a big SPOILER ALERT has to be made here :D)
First the chance [%] to get stuck in the group on positions 3 or 4:
Group A
Brazil 2,79
Mexico 55,49
Croatia 55,58
Cameroon 86,14
Group B
Spain 21,44
Netherlands 37,05
Chile 57,25
Australia 84,26
Group C
Colombia 30,77
Greece 48,03
Cote d'Ivoire 57,05
Japan 64,15
Group D
Uruguay 39,31
England 41,00
Italy 46,18
Costa Rica 73,51
Group E
France 39,73
Switzerland 42,55
Ecuador 44,93
Honduras 72,79
Group F
Argentina 16,08
Bosnia-Herzegovina 54,62
Iran 63,44
Nigeria 65,86
Group G
Germany 17,46
Portugal 43,25
USA 58,76
Ghana 80,53
Group H
Belgium 32,08
Russia 32,23
Korea Republic 61,46
Algeria 74,23
Very close fights are to be expected between Croatia and Mexico in A, Uruguay, England and Italy in D and France, Switzerland and Ecuador in E. Most evident result should come from group H.
Then the chance [%] to get stuck in the round of 16:
Belgium 43,52
Russia 43,22
Spain 41,33
Netherlands 38,32
France 34,63
Switzerland 33,69
Ecuador 32,72
Uruguay 31,29
England 30,55
Italy 29,10
Chile 28,77
Korea Republic 26,99
Mexico 25,53
Colombia 25,51
Croatia 25,39
Greece 24,59
Germany 23,28
Bosnia-Herzegovina 23,27
Cote d'Ivoire 21,41
Brazil 20,14
Honduras 20,09
Japan 19,59
Iran 19,44
Nigeria 18,83
Algeria 18,20
Portugal 18,06
Costa Rica 17,96
Argentina 17,33
USA 15,97
Australia 12,38
Ghana 10,76
Cameroon 8,14
Tough opposition for the teams in group H (Belgium and Russia), B (Spain and the Netherlands) and E (France and Switzerland) to be expected in this round of 16.
Then the chance [%] to get stuck in the quarter finals:
Colombia 29,33
Argentina 23,09
Greece 20,44
Portugal 16,79
Cote d'Ivoire 16,36
Uruguay 16,26
England 15,39
Brazil 15,11
Belgium 14,78
France 14,77
Russia 14,44
Bosnia-Herzegovina 14,34
Germany 14,18
Italy 14,10
Switzerland 13,93
Croatia 13,08
Mexico 12,99
Ecuador 12,95
USA 12,71
Japan 12,59
Iran 11,84
Nigeria 10,46
Korea Republic 8,82
Spain 8,51
Netherlands 7,09
Algeria 6,07
Costa Rica 6,05
Ghana 5,76
Chile 5,74
Honduras 5,07
Cameroon 4,81
Australia 2,15
The chance [%] to reach at least the semi finals:
Brazil 61,96
Germany 45,08
Argentina 43,50
Spain 28,72
Portugal 21,90
Netherlands 17,54
Colombia 14,39
Uruguay 13,14
England 13,06
USA 12,56
France 10,87
Italy 10,62
Russia 10,11
Switzerland 9,83
Belgium 9,62
Ecuador 9,40
Chile 8,24
Bosnia-Herzegovina 7,77
Greece 6,94
Mexico 5,99
Croatia 5,95
Iran 5,28
Cote d'Ivoire 5,18
Nigeria 4,85
Japan 3,67
Ghana 2,95
Korea Republic 2,73
Costa Rica 2,48
Honduras 2,05
Algeria 1,50
Australia 1,21
Cameroon 0,91
The chance [%] to reach the final:
Brazil 46,11
Germany 23,76
Spain 21,40
Argentina 21,11
Netherlands 11,52
Portugal 8,21
Colombia 7,53
Uruguay 7,40
England 7,18
Italy 5,61
Chile 4,31
USA 4,01
France 3,24
Russia 3,06
Belgium 2,85
Greece 2,73
Ecuador 2,57
Switzerland 2,47
Croatia 2,22
Bosnia-Herzegovina 2,04
Mexico 1,95
Cote d'Ivoire 1,89
Japan 1,29
Iran 1,10
Nigeria 1,08
Costa Rica 0,87
Ghana 0,71
Korea Republic 0,56
Australia 0,43
Honduras 0,41
Algeria 0,22
Cameroon 0,16
And finally, the chance [%] to become world champion:
Brazil 32,80
Germany 14,60
Spain 12,90
Argentina 8,75
Netherlands 5,44
Colombia 3,08
Portugal 3,08
Uruguay 2,73
England 2,73
Italy 2,10
Chile 1,55
USA 1,23
France 1,22
Greece 0,97
Ecuador 0,96
Switzerland 0,86
Belgium 0,74
Russia 0,70
Cote d'Ivoire 0,59
Mexico 0,53
Croatia 0,52
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,44
Japan 0,33
Iran 0,27
Nigeria 0,22
Costa Rica 0,17
Ghana 0,17
Korea Republic 0,15
Australia 0,08
Honduras 0,04
Algeria 0,03
Cameroon 0,02
So it will be Brazil in Brazil :) !
Hi Ed,
DeleteThis looks nice, though these percentages could look better with some complementary information. Is it possible to calculate these probabilities as well:
P(getting stuck at round of 16 | team has qualified to round of 16)
P(getting stuck at quaterfinals | teams has reached quaterfinals)
etc..
In other words, what is the probability of getting stuck at a certain point, given that the team has arrived at that point.
For example...Germany has a chance of 14% of being champions. Assuming that we know Germany is already in the final, what is the probability that they win it?
I don't know if your calculations can be easily altered to consider this, but it would be nice to know;
Thanks,
Juan (Arg.)
PS: I was in Rotterdam last week! haha :)
Well Ed, I did it myself. I just drew conclusions from your own numbers, you can correct me if anything is wrong.
DeleteRound of 16: Argentina seems to be the team with higher chances of going to the next round.
Team | P(winning|team arrived to round of 16) [%] | 1-P [%]
Argentina 79.35% 20.65%
Brazil 79.28% 20.72%
Germany 71.80% 28.20%
Portugal 68.18% 31.82%
Colombia 63.15% 36.85%
USA 61.28% 38.72%
Greece 52.68% 47.32%
Cote d'Ivoire 50.15% 49.85%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 48.72% 51.28%
Uruguay 48.44% 51.56%
England 48.22% 51.78%
Spain 47.39% 52.61%
Iran 6.83% 53.17%
Italy 45.93% 54.07%
Japan 45.36% 54.64%
Nigeria 44.84% 55.16%
Ghana 44.74% 55.26%
Croatia 42.84% 57.16%
Mexico 42.64% 57.36%
France 42.54% 57.46%
Switzerland 41.36% 58.64%
Cameroon 41.27% 58.73%
Ecuador 40.58% 59.42%
Netherlands 39.13% 60.87%
Russia 36.23% 63.77%
Belgium 35.92% 64.08%
Chile 32.70% 67.30%
Costa Rica 32.20% 67.80%
Korea Republic 29.97% 70.03%
Algeria 29.38% 70.62%
Honduras 26.17% 73.83%
Australia 21.35% 78.65%
Quaterfinals: If Brazil reaches this stage, they will have the highest chances of moving on to semifinals
Team | P(winning|team arrived to quaterfinals) [%] | 1-P [%]
Brazil 80.39% 19.61%
Spain 77.14% 22.86%
Germany 76.07% 23.93%
Netherlands 71.21% 28.79%
Argentina 65.33% 34.67%
Chile 58.94% 41.06%
Portugal 56.60% 43.40%
USA 49.70% 50.30%
England 45.91% 54.09%
Uruguay 44.69% 55.31%
Italy 42.96% 57.04%
France 42.39% 57.61%
Ecuador 42.06% 57.94%
Switzerland 41.37% 58.63%
Russia 41.18% 58.82%
Belgium 39.43% 60.57%
Australia 36.01% 63.99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 35.14% 64.86%
Ghana 33.87% 66.13%
Colombia 32.91% 67.09%
Nigeria 31.68% 68.32%
Mexico 31.56% 68.44%
Croatia 31.27% 68.73%
Iran 30.84% 69.16%
Costa Rica 29.07% 70.93%
Honduras 28.79% 71.21%
Greece 25.35% 74.65%
Cote d'Ivoire 24.05% 75.95%
Korea Republic 23.64% 76.36%
Japan 22.57% 77.43%
Algeria 19.82% 80.18%
Cameroon 15.91% 84.09%
Semifinals: Spain has a tough road, but if they reach here, they have the best chances of being at the final.
Team | P(winning|team arrived to semis) [%] | 1-P [%]
Spain 74.51% 25.49%
Brazil 74.42% 25.58%
Netherlands 65.68% 34.32%
Uruguay 56.32% 43.68%
England 54.98% 45.02%
Italy 52.82% 47.18%
Germany 52.71% 47.29%
Colombia 52.33% 47.67%
Chile 52.31% 47.69%
Argentina 48.53% 51.47%
Greece 39.34% 60.66%
Portugal 37.49% 62.51%
Croatia 37.31% 62.69%
Cote d'Ivoire 36.49% 63.51%
Australia 35.54% 64.46%
Japan 35.15% 64.85%
Costa Rica 35.08% 64.92%
Mexico 32.55% 67.45%
USA 31.93% 68.07%
Russia 30.27% 69.73%
France 29.81% 70.19%
Belgium 29.63% 70.37%
Ecuador 27.34% 72.66%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 26.25% 73.75%
Switzerland 25.13% 74.87%
Ghana 24.07% 75.93%
Nigeria 22.27% 77.73%
Iran 20.83% 79.17%
Korea Republic 20.51% 79.49%
Honduras 20.00% 80.00%
Cameroon 17.58% 82.42%
Algeria 14.67% 85.33%
Final: Again; Brazil, has great chances of being champions if they reach here.
Team | P(winning|team arrived to final) [%] | 1-P [%]
Brazil 71.13% 28.87%
Germany 61.45% 38.55%
Spain 60.28% 39.72%
Netherlands 47.22% 52.78%
Argentina 41.45% 58.55%
Colombia 40.90% 59.10%
England 38.02% 61.98%
France 37.65% 62.35%
Portugal 37.52% 62.48%
Italy 37.43% 62.57%
Ecuador 37.35% 62.65%
Uruguay 36.89% 63.11%
Chile 35.96% 64.04%
Greece 35.53% 64.47%
Switzerland 34.82% 65.18%
Cote d'Ivoire 31.22% 68.78%
USA 30.67% 69.33%
Mexico 27.18% 72.82%
Korea Republic 26.79% 73.21%
Belgium 25.96% 74.04%
Japan 25.58% 74.42%
Iran 24.55% 75.45%
Ghana 23.94% 76.06%
Croatia 23.42% 76.58%
Russia 22.88% 77.12%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 21.57% 78.43%
Nigeria 20.37% 79.63%
Costa Rica 19.54% 80.46%
Australia 18.60% 81.40%
Algeria 13.64% 86.36%
Cameroon 12.50% 87.50%
Honduras 9.76% 90.24%
Some conclusions:
Delete-Brazil has great chances in all rounds.
-Germany and Argentina seem to have great chances of reaching semifinals, and then it looks like a 50-50 scenario to reach the final. Although the Germans have better chances of winning the final (61 to 41).
-Spain has a difficult way to go, but if they manage to reach quaterfinals, it looks like they have good chances of being at the final as well, and winning it.
-Hard way for Netherlands as well, but winning the round of 16 will give them good chances of final match, and then a 50-50 scenario to be champion.
-Uruguay, Italy and England, seem to improve their chances as they move forward in the tournament. In fact, if they manage to reach semifinals, they have better chances of winning that game than Germany or Argentina.
-A curious case is Chile. It seems they will get stuck either at the group stage or at round of 16. But if they reach quaterfinals, they have good chances of semifinals and 50-50 chances of final. They could be the surprise team of the tournament.
-Portugal can easily be in quaterfinals, and then it seems uphill for them. They could be in the semifinals, but then their chances are not very good. Similar for USA.
-Colombia has great chances of quaterfinals, and also great chances of getting stuck there.
-France seems to be out of the picture for the whole tournament. But if they reach the final, they have better chances of winning it than Italy, Uruguay or Portugal.
-For the rest of the teams, numbers do not seem in their favor. We can expect surprises from this group of course.
And that's all. Of course, all these conclusions are driven from Ed's numbers and the WC could come out entirely different.
Juan(Arg.)
Hi Juan,
DeleteI was a few days on the road (no, not to Argentina :)). Hope you had a nice stay in Rotterdam.
Your calculations of probabilities given a reached stage, are spot on.
Keep in mind that all this is based on elo and thus the home advantage of Brazil weighs heavily. In the end, even with the tough path for Spain and the Netherlands, the ranking in chances to become world champion looks very similar to the elo-ranking as it stands today.
Chile is indeed a very dangerous outsider. Watch your back please, Oranje !
We'll see what comes around next year in Brazil, a great tournament lies in front of us.
To you and everybody else: Happy New Year !
Thanks Ed for running the numbers!
ReplyDelete