There have been some changes in the coefficient calculation as noticed by Ed and peeotreck.
First of all the bonus point were tweaked. Second, the calculation for national associations that have hosted a final tournament in the reference period was changed.
In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.
in the old regulations it was:
In the case of an association that hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament and therefore has no points from the tournament qualifying competition, the points earned in the qualifying competition in the previous cycle are used to avoid a distorted calculation based on results in the final tournament only, supplemented by bonus points.
I asked UEFA about these changes and here's the answer:
The new bonus points enter into force from now on (parallel to the regulations’ entry into force on 1 Jan 2014) and are applied for the first time to the WC 2014 qualifiers, but according to general UEFA policy we will not change any coefficients retroactively.
The UEFA coefficient ranking will be published on 24 Jan following the decision by the UEFA Executive Committee on the UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw procedure and seeding system.
So, if I get this right, these changes will be applied only to the results of the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition. The teams involved in the play-offs lose some points, but the pots remain the same.
Pot 1: Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal, Greece, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 2: Croatia, Ukraine, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Ireland
Pot 3: Serbia, Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Montenegro
Pot 4: Armenia, Poland, Scotland, Finland, Latvia, Wales, Bulgaria, Estonia, Belarus
Pot 5: Iceland, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Cyprus
Pot 6: Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar
Sow Montenegro -Armenia and Poland pots remains the same???
ReplyDeleteWell, the pots for the EURO 2016 qualification draw are announced by UEFA. Poland is in pot 3 and Montenegro is in pot 4. No NT-coefficients ranking is published yet.
ReplyDeleteBased on these pots it seems that not only the new play-off bonus points are taken into account, but it also seems that for the hosts of EURO 2012 (Poland and Ukraine) the results of the WC 2014 qualifying campaign (instead of the results of the WC 2010 qualifying campaign) are used as EURO 2012 Q results.
UEFA finally published the numbers:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/index.html
and a shameless plug for my own website:
http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html
It seems the new points only take effect on the 2014 qualifiers.
Homer, you provide a clear, detailed overview of the calculations on your website. Thanks !
ReplyDeleteIn summary: the new bonus points are applied only to the play-offs for the WC2014 last november.
For Poland and Ukraine the qualifying for WC2014 is used as the qualifying for EURO2012 with the exception that the WC2014 play-offs in that case are calculated with the old bonus-points. So Ukraine gets different points for the same WC2014 play-off matches, depending whether the matches count for the WC2014 cycle or for the EURO2012 cycle. As Poland didn't play play-offs this doesn't have any influence on their coefficient.
And both Ukraine and Poland will have different points for the same cycle (EURO 2012) for the EURO 2016 group stage draw, because then the most recent qualifying cycle will be that of EURO 2016, not of WC 2014.
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