2014 FIFA World Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.69% - Brazil vs. Spain
5.17% - Argentina vs. Brazil
2.69% - Brazil vs. Germany
2.57% - Germany vs. Spain
2.14% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
2.14% - Brazil vs. Portugal
2.04% - Brazil vs. Uruguay
2.01% - Argentina vs. Germany
1.99% - Brazil vs. England
1.62% - Brazil vs. Italy



Eliminated in the group stage:

86.12% - Cameroon
84.41% - Australia
80.12% - Ghana
75.80% - Costa Rica
74.84% - Honduras
74.13% - Algeria
65.83% - Iran
61.07% - Nigeria
60.15% - Korea Republic
59.71% - Japan
59.38% - USA
57.83% - Croatia
57.39% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
54.95% - Chile
54.59% - Côte d'Ivoire
53.46% - Greece
53.46% - Mexico
45.46% - Switzerland
44.66% - Ecuador
42.47% - Italy
41.81% - Portugal
41.68% - Uruguay
40.75% - Netherlands
40.05% - England
35.04% - France
34.02% - Belgium
32.24% - Colombia
31.70% - Russia
19.89% - Spain
18.69% - Germany
15.71% - Argentina
2.59% - Brazil

Eliminated in the round of 16:

40.82% - Belgium
40.66% - Russia
32.90% - Colombia
32.17% - Argentina
31.17% - Netherlands
31.15% - Mexico
30.35% - Spain
29.95% - Croatia
29.50% - France
28.13% - Korea Republic
27.72% - Ecuador
27.52% - Switzerland
27.50% - Greece
27.02% - Chile
26.98% - Brazil
26.40% - Côte d'Ivoire
25.30% - Italy
24.71% - England
24.49% - Japan
24.18% - Uruguay
24.13% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
22.32% - Nigeria
21.61% - Portugal
21.09% - Germany
20.96% - Iran
19.54% - Algeria
17.44% - USA
15.68% - Honduras
14.52% - Costa Rica
11.69% - Australia
11.69% - Cameroon
10.71% - Ghana

Eliminated in the quarter finals:

21.93% - Colombia
20.94% - Argentina
20.86% - Uruguay
20.64% - Germany
20.43% - England
20.00% - Italy
18.28% - France
17.20% - Spain
16.91% - Portugal
16.52% - Brazil
15.31% - Russia
14.65% - Ecuador
14.63% - Switzerland
14.48% - Belgium
13.10% - Greece
13.08% - Côte d'Ivoire
12.07% - Netherlands
11.46% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.45% - USA
11.21% - Japan
10.34% - Nigeria
8.30% - Iran
8.23% - Chile
8.01% - Mexico
7.44% - Korea Republic
7.15% - Costa Rica
6.44% - Croatia
5.96% - Honduras
5.42% - Ghana
3.79% - Algeria
2.12% - Australia
1.65% - Cameroon

Out in the semifinals:

19.96% - Germany
15.59% - Argentina
14.57% - Brazil
11.33% - Spain
11.07% - Portugal
10.64% - France
8.29% - Ecuador
8.03% - Switzerland
7.44% - Russia
7.01% - USA
6.78% - Netherlands
6.75% - Belgium
6.57% - England
6.49% - Uruguay
6.28% - Colombia
6.11% - Italy
4.76% - Chile
4.74% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4.23% - Nigeria
3.88% - Mexico
3.60% - Greece
3.44% - Côte d'Ivoire
3.31% - Iran
3.23% - Croatia
3.04% - Korea Republic
2.73% - Japan
2.71% - Ghana
2.43% - Honduras
2.08% - Algeria
1.51% - Costa Rica
0.95% - Australia
0.45% - Cameroon

Losing finalist:

11.51% - Brazil
9.41% - Spain
8.81% - Germany
8.18% - Argentina
5.04% - Netherlands
4.89% - Portugal
4.31% - England
4.03% - Uruguay
3.81% - Italy
3.74% - France
3.53% - Colombia
3.16% - Russia
2.98% - Chile
2.87% - USA
2.61% - Ecuador
2.59% - Belgium
2.51% - Switzerland
2.00% - Mexico
1.75% - Croatia
1.61% - Greece
1.45% - Côte d'Ivoire
1.42% - Nigeria
1.39% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.22% - Japan
1.18% - Iran
0.86% - Korea Republic
0.80% - Ghana
0.71% - Costa Rica
0.68% - Honduras
0.56% - Australia
0.34% - Algeria
0.05% - Cameroon

Winner:

27.83% - Brazil
11.82% - Spain
10.81% - Germany
7.41% - Argentina
4.19% - Netherlands
3.93% - England
3.71% - Portugal
3.12% - Colombia
2.80% - France
2.76% - Uruguay
2.31% - Italy
2.07% - Ecuador
2.06% - Chile
1.85% - Switzerland
1.85% - USA
1.73% - Russia
1.50% - Mexico
1.34% - Belgium
1.04% - Côte d'Ivoire
0.89% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.80% - Croatia
0.73% - Greece
0.64% - Japan
0.62% - Nigeria
0.42% - Iran
0.41% - Honduras
0.38% - Korea Republic
0.31% - Costa Rica
0.27% - Australia
0.24% - Ghana
0.12% - Algeria
0.04% - Cameroon

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.