More details in the preview.
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
277 - Netherlands
252 - Colombia
231 - Belgium
225 - France
201 - Argentina
183 - Uruguay
126 - Costa Rica
110 - Ecuador
67 - Switzerland
66 - Turks and Caicos Islands
Friday, June 27, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (27 June 2014)
10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
See the simulations from one week ago.
Top 10 most likely finals:
11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica
See the simulations from one week ago.
Top 10 most likely finals:
11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica
FIFA Ranking: July 2014 preview and probable ranking (27 June 2014)
Yes, two in one :)
22 matches left involving 25 teams. 6 friendlies and 16 World Cup matches.
Here's how the points and ranking could change for these 25 teams:
22 matches left involving 25 teams. 6 friendlies and 16 World Cup matches.
Here's how the points and ranking could change for these 25 teams:
Elo Ratings update (27 June 2014)
Kirill is most likely on vacation. Since I use the Elo ratings for probable results and simulations, here's an update.
Results taken from Roonba.
Results taken from Roonba.
Confederation weightings update (27 June 2014)
At the end of the group stage.
CONMEBOL still on top, while UEFA have done some damage limitation with their latest wins. CONCACAF drop due to their recent defeats.
CONMEBOL still on top, while UEFA have done some damage limitation with their latest wins. CONCACAF drop due to their recent defeats.
Friday, June 20, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (20 June 2014)
10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).
Top 10 most likely finals:
13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).
Top 10 most likely finals:
13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
Follow @FootballRanks #fifaranking
FIFA Ranking: July 2014 probable results
Here are the probable results used for the July 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Confederation weightings update
After last night's matches, these are the new values.
CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.89
AFC, CAF, OFC 0.85
Since UEFA dropped from the top, will FIFA consider changing the formula yet again?
CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.89
AFC, CAF, OFC 0.85
Since UEFA dropped from the top, will FIFA consider changing the formula yet again?
Elo Ratings update
Kirill is most likely on vacation. Since I use the Elo ratings for probable results and simulations, here's an update.
Results taken from Roonba.
Spain is out of the top 5.
Results taken from Roonba.
Spain is out of the top 5.
Friday, June 6, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup: Quick look at the coaches
18 teams will be led by a local coach. There will be coaches from 19 nations.
3 of them are from Colombia, but Colombia are coached by an Argentinian.
3 of them are from Colombia, but Colombia are coached by an Argentinian.
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (chances of reaching certain stage)
By request.
I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.
Reaching the round of 16:
I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.
Reaching the round of 16:
2014 World Cup final squads statistics
Notice: this is based on FIFA data. And this data has plenty of errors. For instance, looking at the height/weight of players. Ghana's John Boye is listed at 160 cm and 89 kg, although other sites have him at 185 cm and 72 kg. Boye's body mass index according to FIFA data is 34.76, very close to severely obese.
That's why I haven't included in this post any info regarding height/weight.
Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.
297 clubs will send players to the final tournament.
England is the best represented league - 119 players, with Italy (81), Germany (78), Spain (64) and France (46) completing the top 5.
Russia, Italy, Switzerland and Costa Rica are the only teams with no English-based players.
That's why I haven't included in this post any info regarding height/weight.
Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.
297 clubs will send players to the final tournament.
England is the best represented league - 119 players, with Italy (81), Germany (78), Spain (64) and France (46) completing the top 5.
Russia, Italy, Switzerland and Costa Rica are the only teams with no English-based players.
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