10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).
Top 10 most likely finals:
13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
Eliminated in the group stage:
100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Cameroon
93.33% - Ghana
92.86% - England
92.51% - Honduras
92.10% - Japan
82.56% - Algeria
76.32% - Ecuador
72.21% - Greece
72.16% - Portugal
66.83% - Nigeria
66.70% - Iran
65.11% - Croatia
61.46% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
60.57% - Uruguay
59.69% - Korea Republic
39.67% - Russia
35.69% - Côte d'Ivoire
34.17% - Mexico
31.86% - USA
26.14% - Costa Rica
20.43% - Italy
18.08% - Belgium
16.07% - Switzerland
15.10% - France
5.01% - Argentina
2.65% - Germany
0.72% - Brazil
0.00% - Colombia
0.00% - Netherlands
0.00% - Chile
Reaching the round of 16:
100.00% - Colombia
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Chile
99.28% - Brazil
97.35% - Germany
94.99% - Argentina
84.90% - France
83.93% - Switzerland
81.92% - Belgium
79.57% - Italy
73.86% - Costa Rica
68.14% - USA
65.83% - Mexico
64.31% - Côte d'Ivoire
60.33% - Russia
40.31% - Korea Republic
39.43% - Uruguay
38.54% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
34.89% - Croatia
33.30% - Iran
33.17% - Nigeria
27.84% - Portugal
27.79% - Greece
23.68% - Ecuador
17.44% - Algeria
7.90% - Japan
7.49% - Honduras
7.14% - England
6.67% - Ghana
0.00% - Spain
0.00% - Australia
0.00% - Cameroon
Reaching the quarter finals:
75.12% - Germany
70.83% - Brazil
61.24% - Colombia
60.96% - Argentina
56.28% - Netherlands
46.29% - France
44.44% - Italy
40.55% - Switzerland
38.58% - Chile
38.10% - USA
33.43% - Belgium
29.73% - Costa Rica
27.56% - Côte d'Ivoire
22.12% - Mexico
21.17% - Russia
19.03% - Uruguay
16.23% - Portugal
15.14% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.07% - Nigeria
12.19% - Croatia
11.93% - Greece
11.58% - Iran
10.09% - Ecuador
9.77% - Korea Republic
3.31% - Japan
3.30% - Algeria
2.88% - Ghana
2.76% - England
2.32% - Honduras
0.00% - Spain
0.00% - Australia
0.00% - Cameroon
Reaching the semifinals:
53.62% - Brazil
50.36% - Germany
36.86% - Netherlands
36.00% - Argentina
22.98% - Chile
21.53% - France
20.60% - Colombia
18.45% - USA
18.35% - Italy
17.12% - Switzerland
14.98% - Belgium
11.25% - Mexico
9.46% - Russia
8.98% - Côte d'Ivoire
8.56% - Costa Rica
8.07% - Portugal
6.91% - Uruguay
6.07% - Croatia
5.53% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4.16% - Nigeria
4.05% - Iran
3.89% - Greece
3.89% - Ecuador
3.53% - Korea Republic
1.20% - Japan
1.08% - Algeria
1.06% - Ghana
0.73% - England
0.73% - Honduras
0.00% - Spain
0.00% - Australia
0.00% - Cameroon
Reaching the final:
36.96% - Brazil
26.18% - Germany
21.73% - Netherlands
19.56% - Argentina
12.33% - Chile
10.74% - Colombia
8.32% - Italy
8.18% - France
6.91% - USA
6.58% - Belgium
6.52% - Switzerland
5.70% - Mexico
3.83% - Russia
3.75% - Portugal
3.70% - Costa Rica
3.51% - Côte d'Ivoire
3.07% - Uruguay
2.45% - Croatia
1.92% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.83% - Ecuador
1.58% - Greece
1.13% - Nigeria
1.06% - Korea Republic
0.98% - Iran
0.43% - Ghana
0.41% - Japan
0.30% - England
0.18% - Honduras
0.16% - Algeria
0.00% - Spain
0.00% - Australia
0.00% - Cameroon
Winners:
25.51% - Brazil
15.27% - Germany
11.25% - Netherlands
8.97% - Argentina
5.58% - Chile
5.37% - Colombia
3.74% - France
3.65% - Italy
2.82% - Switzerland
2.47% - USA
2.26% - Belgium
2.14% - Mexico
1.45% - Russia
1.40% - Portugal
1.37% - Uruguay
1.18% - Costa Rica
1.07% - Côte d'Ivoire
1.01% - Croatia
0.76% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.64% - Ecuador
0.50% - Greece
0.44% - Nigeria
0.40% - Iran
0.31% - Korea Republic
0.13% - Ghana
0.13% - England
0.08% - Japan
0.08% - Algeria
0.02% - Honduras
0.00% - Spain
0.00% - Australia
0.00% - Cameroon
I have to say, ELO is full of humor in regard to what it makes of the Dutch chances. Anyone that has seen them play against Australia, knows they are not gonna stand any chance against Brazil, Mexico or Croatia in the round of 16 if they don't improve dramatically.
ReplyDeleteHa-ha, I bet you said the same thing (like me), before the match against Spain also!
DeleteAbsolutely ! But wasn't that something of a magical evening, to be remembered forever. I just don't see that happening again any time soon. The best you can say about the Dutch, they are pretty unpredictable at the moment :)
DeleteWell, I don't think you should would write us off before it is even known what our opponent will be. I also think you shouldn't underestimate what team-feeling, fitness, and a coach with vast experience can achieve. If you look at Spain they have a lot of tired players, but we don't. Sure, we had it difficult against Australia, but traditionally we've always had it difficult against such opponents. We had never even beaten Australia in three previous appearances. If you watched the last World Cup and this one you'd also see a new type of approach of our team. We've learned to peak at the right time and win matches, rather than play beautiful football. It is a quality the German team has always had, and you know how far they usually go. I also think there's no other team that really impressed in more than one match so far. Look at how Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Portugal, England, Uruguay and to a lesser extent Germany have struggled in their matches or at times during those matches. I actually see many similarities to the last World Cup for our team, and I agree with you that we could get knocked out in the next round, but we could also win the tournament. But I certainly don't agree that we don't "standard any chance against Brazil, Mexico or Croatia." We'll be an underdog against Brazil, but we also had that role against Spain, and we were also underdog against Brazil in 2010. I certainly see chances after surviving a tough group!
DeleteThat's why I added "if they don't improve dramatically". Luckily, there is room for some improvement in the Dutch team. So indeed, they could go far, but at the same time: one more performance like against Australia in the round of 16 and we're out, against no matter which opponent. The level seems just not constant enough, although I agree that the Dutch have learned to pick their moments and are apparently tough to beat.
DeleteFirst I'm curious what they produce against Chile, an agile team with a lot of high quality, attacking football in it, a true top team.
Wow, not beautiful, but terribly effective football from the Dutch. Great defensive effort, Chile hasn't been dangerous at all. It's South Africa 2010 all over again....
DeleteExactly, we won't make many friends, but we might have success again. It does have the same feeling as in 2010. Very big determination to win and fight for it as a team. It is time to win the cup for one and slay the daemons of those three lost finals!
DeleteFunny, how the Chilean coach Jorge Sampaoli lamented about the Dutch 'having 10 men behind the ball constantly' and 'they won undeservedly'. That's exactly the kind of talk the Dutch coaches uttered many times when they lost a crucial match again with their beautiful, attacking but rather naive way of football....
DeleteHi Edgar -- which elo rating are you using? from which date/source?
ReplyDeleteI compute the Elo ratings on my own since Kirill is most likely on vacation. There are updates posted today and last Friday.
DeleteHaha! Very late now but I came across this- Iran with more of a chance of winning than England!
ReplyDeleteThis is as it stood on 20 June 2014 (see the title). England had just played its second group match and suffered its second loss, so at this point it was already very unlikely that they would progress past the group stage. Later that day Costa Rica beat Italy, thus completely eliminating England.
DeleteThanks for the explanation!
Delete