2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (chances of reaching certain stage)

By request.

I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.

Reaching the round of 16:


97.41% - Brazil
84.29% - Argentina
81.31% - Germany
80.11% - Spain
68.30% - Russia
67.76% - Colombia
65.98% - Belgium
64.96% - France
59.95% - England
59.25% - Netherlands
58.32% - Uruguay
58.19% - Portugal
57.53% - Italy
55.34% - Ecuador
54.54% - Switzerland
46.54% - Mexico
46.54% - Greece
45.41% - Côte d'Ivoire
45.05% - Chile
42.61% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
42.17% - Croatia
40.62% - USA
40.29% - Japan
39.85% - Korea Republic
38.93% - Nigeria
34.17% - Iran
25.87% - Algeria
25.16% - Honduras
24.20% - Costa Rica
19.88% - Ghana
15.59% - Australia
13.88% - Cameroon


Reaching the quarterfinals:

70.43% - Brazil
60.22% - Germany
52.12% - Argentina
49.76% - Spain
36.58% - Portugal
35.46% - France
35.24% - England
34.86% - Colombia
34.14% - Uruguay
32.23% - Italy
28.08% - Netherlands
27.64% - Russia
27.62% - Ecuador
27.02% - Switzerland
25.16% - Belgium
23.18% - USA
19.04% - Greece
19.01% - Côte d'Ivoire
18.48% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
18.03% - Chile
16.61% - Nigeria
15.80% - Japan
15.39% - Mexico
13.21% - Iran
12.22% - Croatia
11.72% - Korea Republic
9.68% - Costa Rica
9.48% - Honduras
9.17% - Ghana
6.33% - Algeria
3.90% - Australia
2.19% - Cameroon

Reaching the semifinals:

53.91% - Brazil
39.58% - Germany
32.56% - Spain
31.18% - Argentina
19.67% - Portugal
17.18% - France
16.01% - Netherlands
14.81% - England
13.28% - Uruguay
12.97% - Ecuador
12.93% - Colombia
12.39% - Switzerland
12.33% - Russia
12.23% - Italy
11.73% - USA
10.68% - Belgium
9.80% - Chile
7.38% - Mexico
7.02% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
6.27% - Nigeria
5.94% - Greece
5.93% - Côte d'Ivoire
5.78% - Croatia
4.91% - Iran
4.59% - Japan
4.28% - Korea Republic
3.75% - Ghana
3.52% - Honduras
2.54% - Algeria
2.53% - Costa Rica
1.78% - Australia
0.54% - Cameroon

Reaching the final:

39.34% - Brazil
21.23% - Spain
19.62% - Germany
15.59% - Argentina
9.23% - Netherlands
8.60% - Portugal
8.24% - England
6.79% - Uruguay
6.65% - Colombia
6.54% - France
6.12% - Italy
5.04% - Chile
4.89% - Russia
4.72% - USA
4.68% - Ecuador
4.36% - Switzerland
3.93% - Belgium
3.50% - Mexico
2.55% - Croatia
2.49% - Côte d'Ivoire
2.34% - Greece
2.28% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
2.04% - Nigeria
1.86% - Japan
1.60% - Iran
1.24% - Korea Republic
1.09% - Honduras
1.04% - Ghana
1.02% - Costa Rica
0.83% - Australia
0.46% - Algeria
0.09% - Cameroon

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.