22 matches left involving 25 teams. 6 friendlies and 16 World Cup matches.
Here's how the points and ranking could change for these 25 teams:
Team - Min points - Max points - Min Rank - Max Rank
| Germany | 1354 | 1724 | 12 | 1 |
| Brazil | 1126 | 1562 | 17 | 1 |
| Argentina | 1376 | 1803 | 12 | 1 |
| Switzerland | 1216 | 1655 | 16 | 1 |
| Uruguay | 1330 | 1736 | 12 | 1 |
| Colombia | 1389 | 1805 | 11 | 1 |
| Belgium | 1305 | 1729 | 12 | 1 |
| Greece | 1048 | 1453 | 18 | 1 |
| USA | 989 | 1294 | 18 | 6 |
| Chile | 1045 | 1464 | 18 | 1 |
| Netherlands | 1258 | 1637 | 14 | 1 |
| France | 1138 | 1510 | 17 | 1 |
| Mexico | 930 | 1242 | 20 | 7 |
| Algeria | 872 | 1377 | 25 | 2 |
| Costa Rica | 888 | 1277 | 25 | 6 |
| Nigeria | 664 | 959 | 34 | 16 |
| Mali | 462 | 483 | 65 | 60 |
| Botswana | 300 | 339 | 104 | 95 |
| China PR | 342 | 373 | 94 | 83 |
| Tanzania | 266 | 297 | 111 | 105 |
| Mozambique | 250 | 264 | 118 | 112 |
| Malawi | 218 | 253 | 128 | 116 |
| Vietnam | 195 | 217 | 137 | 129 |
| Lesotho | 182 | 238 | 141 | 121 |
| Myanmar | 122 | 162 | 160 | 148 |
Probable results generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
28/Jun Brazil - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
28/Jun Colombia - Uruguay 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
29/Jun China PR - Mali 1 (Friendly)
29/Jun Costa Rica - Greece X Costa Rica PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
29/Jun Netherlands - Mexico 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
30/Jun France - Nigeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
30/Jun Germany - Algeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Argentina - Switzerland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Belgium - USA X Belgium PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Botswana - Tanzania X (Friendly)
02/Jul Vietnam - Myanmar 1 (Friendly)
04/Jul Brazil - Colombia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
04/Jul France - Germany 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
05/Jul Argentina - Belgium 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
05/Jul Netherlands - Costa Rica 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
06/Jul Malawi - Mozambique X (Friendly)
08/Jul Brazil - Germany 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
09/Jul Netherlands - Argentina X Netherlands PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
11/Jul Tanzania - Lesotho 1 (Friendly)
12/Jul Germany - Argentina X Germany PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
13/Jul Botswana - Lesotho 1 (Friendly)
13/Jul Brazil - Netherlands 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
Probable July 2014 rank - Team - Probable July 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Argentina | 1609 | 4 | 434 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1555 | 1 | 313 |
| 3 | Germany | 1549 | -1 | 249 |
| 4 | Colombia | 1492 | 4 | 355 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 1444 | 10 | 463 |
| 6 | Belgium | 1351 | 5 | 277 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 1330 | 0 | 183 |
| 8 | Spain | 1229 | -7 | -256 |
| 9 | Switzerland | 1216 | -3 | 67 |
| 10 | France | 1202 | 7 | 289 |
| 11 | Portugal | 1148 | -7 | -41 |
| 12 | Greece | 1091 | 0 | 27 |
| 13 | Italy | 1056 | -4 | -48 |
| 14 | Chile | 1045 | 0 | 19 |
| 15 | USA | 1024 | -2 | -11 |
| 16 | Croatia | 955 | 2 | 52 |
| 17 | Costa Rica | 942 | 11 | 180 |
| 18 | Mexico | 930 | 2 | 48 |
| 19 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 917 | 2 | 44 |
| 20 | England | 911 | -10 | -179 |
| 21 | Ecuador | 901 | 5 | 110 |
| 22 | Ukraine | 898 | -6 | -17 |
| 23 | Russia | 897 | -4 | 4 |
| 24 | Algeria | 872 | -2 | 14 |
| 25 | Côte d'Ivoire | 850 | -2 | 41 |
| 26 | Denmark | 807 | -3 | -2 |
| 27 | Scotland | 734 | 0 | -52 |
| 28 | Romania | 733 | 1 | -28 |
| 29 | Sweden | 724 | 3 | -17 |
| 30 | Venezuela | 720 | 10 | 48 |
| 31 | Serbia | 717 | -1 | -28 |
| 32 | Turkey | 714 | 3 | -8 |
| 33 | Panama | 684 | -2 | -59 |
| 34 | Nigeria | 664 | 10 | 24 |
| 35 | Czech Republic | 646 | -1 | -78 |
| 36 | Egypt | 645 | 0 | -70 |
| 37 | Slovenia | 644 | -12 | -156 |
| 38 | Ghana | 642 | -1 | -62 |
| 38 | Hungary | 642 | 9 | 18 |
| 40 | Honduras | 637 | -7 | -94 |
| 41 | Armenia | 635 | -3 | -47 |
| 42 | Tunisia | 621 | 6 | 9 |
| 43 | Austria | 614 | -1 | -29 |
| 44 | Wales | 606 | -3 | -38 |
| 45 | Japan | 604 | 1 | -22 |
| 46 | Slovakia | 588 | 3 | -3 |
| 47 | Iceland | 570 | 5 | 4 |
| 48 | Paraguay | 566 | 2 | -9 |
| 49 | Iran | 563 | -6 | -78 |
| 50 | Montenegro | 559 | 1 | -15 |
| 51 | Guinea | 555 | 1 | -11 |
| 52 | Uzbekistan | 523 | 7 | -16 |
| 53 | Norway | 520 | 2 | -42 |
| 53 | Cameroon | 520 | 3 | -38 |
| 55 | Finland | 508 | 6 | -24 |
| 56 | Korea Republic | 501 | 1 | -46 |
| 57 | Jordan | 500 | 6 | -10 |
| 58 | Burkina Faso | 495 | 2 | -43 |
| 59 | Peru | 487 | -14 | -140 |
| 60 | Poland | 478 | 9 | 4 |
| 61 | Senegal | 476 | 13 | 25 |
| 62 | Libya | 471 | 2 | -27 |
| 63 | Sierra Leone | 469 | -9 | -96 |
| 64 | United Arab Emirates | 466 | 8 | 6 |
| 65 | Mali | 462 | -8 | -85 |
| 66 | South Africa | 450 | -1 | -46 |
| 67 | Albania | 444 | -1 | -51 |
| 67 | Israel | 444 | 8 | 0 |
| 69 | Oman | 443 | 10 | 23 |
| 70 | Republic of Ireland | 440 | 0 | -33 |
| 71 | Bolivia | 429 | -4 | -54 |
| 72 | Bulgaria | 425 | 6 | 0 |
| 73 | Azerbaijan | 410 | 10 | 14 |
| 74 | FYR Macedonia | 406 | 6 | -13 |
| 75 | Cape Verde Islands | 401 | -36 | -273 |
| 76 | Australia | 397 | -14 | -129 |
| 77 | Zambia | 396 | -1 | -45 |
| 78 | Saudi Arabia | 384 | 12 | 3 |
| 79 | Morocco | 377 | -2 | -62 |
| 79 | Angola | 377 | 14 | 13 |
| 81 | Belarus | 376 | 1 | -21 |
| 82 | Congo | 375 | 3 | -18 |
| 83 | Jamaica | 373 | -2 | -38 |
| 83 | China PR | 373 | 20 | 42 |
| 85 | Trinidad and Tobago | 369 | -14 | -101 |
| 86 | Palestine | 362 | 8 | 4 |
| 87 | Qatar | 361 | 13 | 22 |
| 88 | Uganda | 358 | -2 | -32 |
| 89 | Togo | 357 | -1 | -26 |
| 90 | Northern Ireland | 356 | 0 | -25 |
| 90 | Iraq | 356 | 14 | 27 |
| 92 | Benin | 354 | -5 | -32 |
| 93 | Estonia | 345 | 5 | 2 |
| 94 | Gabon | 344 | -5 | -38 |
| 95 | Kenya | 339 | 13 | 43 |
| 96 | Congo DR | 338 | -12 | -57 |
| 96 | Georgia | 338 | 0 | -11 |
| 98 | Zimbabwe | 334 | 1 | -6 |
| 99 | Niger | 332 | 13 | 48 |
| 100 | New Zealand | 330 | -3 | -17 |
| 101 | Moldova | 325 | 0 | -9 |
| 102 | Botswana | 324 | -10 | -51 |
| 103 | Latvia | 314 | 6 | 21 |
| 104 | Lithuania | 312 | 2 | -7 |
| 105 | Bahrain | 288 | 5 | -1 |
| 106 | Tanzania | 283 | 7 | 0 |
| 107 | Kuwait | 281 | 8 | 5 |
| 108 | Luxembourg | 278 | 11 | 11 |
| 109 | Rwanda | 276 | 7 | 5 |
| 110 | Ethiopia | 273 | -3 | -44 |
| 111 | Equatorial Guinea | 270 | -9 | -63 |
| 112 | Namibia | 264 | 2 | -13 |
| 113 | Haiti | 262 | -40 | -190 |
| 114 | Liberia | 256 | 2 | -15 |
| 114 | Sudan | 256 | 6 | 2 |
| 116 | Mozambique | 255 | 2 | -14 |
| 117 | Central African Republic | 253 | -12 | -68 |
| 118 | Canada | 250 | -8 | -39 |
| 119 | Lebanon | 249 | 6 | 16 |
| 120 | Cuba | 245 | -25 | -109 |
| 121 | El Salvador | 234 | -53 | -247 |
| 122 | Aruba | 233 | -2 | -21 |
| 123 | Tajikistan | 232 | 3 | 3 |
| 124 | Dominican Republic | 230 | 7 | 18 |
| 125 | Malawi | 229 | -3 | -18 |
| 126 | Burundi | 222 | 2 | 1 |
| 127 | Kazakhstan | 220 | -3 | -21 |
| 128 | Philippines | 218 | 1 | 1 |
| 129 | Vietnam | 217 | -6 | -25 |
| 129 | Afghanistan | 217 | 1 | 2 |
| 131 | Suriname | 213 | 5 | 16 |
| 132 | Mauritania | 208 | 5 | 12 |
| 133 | Guatemala | 204 | -6 | -22 |
| 134 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 203 | -1 | 0 |
| 135 | Guinea-Bissau | 199 | -1 | -2 |
| 135 | New Caledonia | 199 | 5 | 9 |
| 137 | St. Lucia | 195 | 0 | -1 |
| 138 | Cyprus | 193 | 4 | 4 |
| 139 | Chad | 183 | -5 | -18 |
| 139 | Turkmenistan | 183 | 4 | 0 |
| 141 | Lesotho | 182 | -2 | -12 |
| 141 | Grenada | 182 | 3 | 0 |
| 143 | Madagascar | 179 | 1 | -3 |
| 144 | Kyrgyzstan | 176 | 5 | 13 |
| 145 | Maldives | 171 | 2 | 0 |
| 146 | Syria | 169 | -6 | -21 |
| 147 | Korea DPR | 163 | -1 | -12 |
| 148 | Gambia | 161 | 0 | -5 |
| 149 | Antigua and Barbuda | 152 | 2 | -6 |
| 150 | Malta | 146 | -18 | -58 |
| 151 | Malaysia | 144 | 2 | -5 |
| 151 | India | 144 | 3 | 0 |
| 153 | Indonesia | 141 | 4 | 6 |
| 154 | Singapore | 140 | 1 | -1 |
| 155 | Guyana | 136 | 1 | -1 |
| 156 | Puerto Rico | 134 | 2 | 0 |
| 157 | Thailand | 128 | -8 | -35 |
| 158 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 124 | 2 | 0 |
| 159 | Swaziland | 123 | 14 | 38 |
| 160 | Myanmar | 122 | -1 | -11 |
| 161 | Belize | 117 | -9 | -35 |
| 162 | Hong Kong | 114 | 1 | 2 |
| 163 | Bangladesh | 103 | 4 | 5 |
| 164 | Nepal | 102 | 0 | 0 |
| 165 | Pakistan | 100 | -1 | -2 |
| 166 | Montserrat | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| 167 | Liechtenstein | 93 | -5 | -25 |
| 167 | Dominica | 93 | 2 | 0 |
| 169 | Barbados | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 170 | Laos | 87 | -2 | -10 |
| 171 | Tahiti | 85 | -10 | -37 |
| 172 | Comoros | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 173 | Bermuda | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 174 | Guam | 79 | 4 | 2 |
| 175 | Nicaragua | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 175 | Solomon Islands | 78 | 5 | 8 |
| 177 | Sao Tome e Principe | 72 | -5 | -14 |
| 178 | Chinese Taipei | 71 | -2 | -7 |
| 178 | Sri Lanka | 71 | 1 | -2 |
| 180 | Yemen | 70 | 3 | 9 |
| 181 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 66 | 26 | 66 |
| 182 | Seychelles | 64 | -1 | -2 |
| 183 | Curacao | 63 | -1 | -2 |
| 184 | Faroe Islands | 61 | -13 | -28 |
| 185 | Mauritius | 56 | -1 | -1 |
| 186 | South Sudan | 43 | -1 | -4 |
| 187 | Vanuatu | 38 | 3 | 10 |
| 188 | Fiji | 31 | 0 | -3 |
| 189 | Mongolia | 29 | -2 | -6 |
| 190 | Samoa | 28 | -1 | -4 |
| 190 | US Virgin Islands | 28 | 5 | 5 |
| 192 | Bahamas | 26 | -6 | -14 |
| 192 | Brunei Darussalam | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Timor-Leste | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Tonga | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 196 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | American Samoa | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| 198 | Andorra | 16 | 2 | 0 |
| 199 | Papua New Guinea | 14 | -3 | -7 |
| 200 | Cambodia | 13 | -10 | -15 |
| 200 | British Virgin Islands | 13 | -2 | -5 |
| 202 | Eritrea | 11 | -1 | 0 |
| 203 | Somalia | 8 | -1 | 0 |
| 204 | Macau | 7 | -2 | -1 |
| 205 | Djibouti | 6 | -1 | 0 |
| 206 | Cook Islands | 5 | -1 | 0 |
| 207 | Anguilla | 1 | -1 | -2 |
| 208 | Bhutan | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 208 | San Marino | 0 | -1 | 0 |
The round of 16 is completed. Some great, compelling matches, still no clear favourites for the title. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the confederation weightings.
ReplyDeleteNo changes in elo-predictions:
2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
2014-07-05 Argentina - Belgium; World Cup; 1
2014-07-05 Netherlands - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
2014-07-06 Malawi - Mozambique; Friendly; X
2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
2014-07-11 Tanzania - Lesotho; Friendly; 1
2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
2 Germany 1549 (-)
3 Brazil 1511 (-)
4 Colombia 1492 (+4)
5 Netherlands 1444 (+10)
6 Belgium 1401 (+5)
7 Uruguay 1330 (-)
8 Spain 1229 (-7)
9 Switzerland 1216 (-3)
10 France 1202 (+7)
11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
12 Chile 1098 (+2)
13 Greece 1091 (-1)
14 Italy 1056 (-5)
15 USA 989 (-2)
16 Croatia 955 (+2)
17 Costa Rica 942 (+11)
18 Mexico 930 (+2)
19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 917 (+2)
20 England 911 (-10)
21 Ecuador 901 (+5)
22 Ukraine 898 (-6)
23 Russia 897 (-4)
24 Algeria 872 (-2)
25 Cote d'Ivoire 850 (-2)
26 Denmark 807 (-3)
27 Scotland 734 (-)
28 Romania 733 (+1)
29 Sweden 724 (+3)
30 Venezuela 720 (+10)
CONMEBOL 1.00
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF/CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85
Thanks Ed. Can you also post top-30 Elo rating before quartals? For me, Elo ranking is much more realistic than FIFA ranking, so one can make better predictions.
ReplyDeleteCurrent top-30 elo ranking:
ReplyDelete01 NED 2094
02 BRA 2082
03 GER 2078
04 ARG 2040
05 COL 2016
06 ESP 1971
07 CHI 1957
08 FRA 1952
09 BEL 1905
10 POR 1895
11 MEX 1868
12 URU 1859
13 ENG 1834
14 ITA 1830
15 SUI 1818
16 USA 1817
17 ECU 1815
18 UKR 1814
19 CRC 1805
20 GRE 1793
21 CRO 1773
22 RUS 1772
23 SWE 1768
24 BIH 1759
25 CIV 1758
26 SRB 1740
27 DEN 1735
28 JPN 1718
29 TUR 1717
30 NGA 1715
The quarterfinals are completed. That was quite a bit less compelling alltogether. Brazil shapes up to be the only real favourite for the title. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the current confederation weightings.
ReplyDeleteElo is doing OK in the predicting business so far, so no changes there:
2014-07-06 Malawi - Mozambique; Friendly; X
2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
2014-07-11 Congo DR - Gabon; Friendly; X
2014-07-11 Uganda - Seychelles; Friendly; 1
2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
2 Germany 1549 (-)
3 Brazil 1511 (-)
4 Colombia 1492 (+4)
5 Netherlands 1408 (+10)
6 Belgium 1401 (+5)
7 Uruguay 1330 (-)
8 Spain 1229 (-7)
9 Switzerland 1216 (-3)
10 France 1202 (+7)
11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
12 Chile 1098 (+2)
13 Greece 1091 (-1)
14 Italy 1056 (-5)
15 USA 989 (-2)
16 Costa Rica 942 (+12)
17 Croatia 955 (+1)
18 Mexico 930 (+2)
19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 917 (+2)
20 England 911 (-10)
21 Ecuador 901 (+5)
22 Ukraine 898 (-6)
23 Russia 897 (-4)
24 Algeria 872 (-2)
25 Cote d'Ivoire 850 (-2)
26 Denmark 807 (-3)
27 Scotland 734 (-)
28 Romania 733 (+1)
29 Sweden 724 (+3)
30 Venezuela 720 (+10)
CONMEBOL 1.00
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF/CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85
These are also the final weightings if at least one CONMEBOL team makes it to the final. If it all goes UEFA's way in the semis then UEFA ends at 0.99.
Oops, a small copy-paste error: Costa Rica has 986 points in July.
DeleteI will leave any predictions strictly to ELO in the future. No wait, ELO said the same :D
ReplyDelete