Probable July 2014 rank - Team - Probable July 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Germany | 1627 | 1 | 327 |
2 | Argentina | 1614 | 3 | 439 |
3 | Brazil | 1555 | 0 | 313 |
4 | Colombia | 1492 | 4 | 355 |
5 | Netherlands | 1381 | 10 | 400 |
6 | Italy | 1306 | 3 | 202 |
7 | Switzerland | 1272 | -1 | 123 |
8 | Belgium | 1254 | 3 | 180 |
9 | Spain | 1229 | -8 | -256 |
10 | Uruguay | 1220 | -3 | 73 |
11 | France | 1218 | 6 | 305 |
12 | Portugal | 1167 | -8 | -22 |
13 | Chile | 1095 | 1 | 69 |
14 | USA | 1018 | -1 | -17 |
15 | Russia | 1009 | 4 | 116 |
16 | Croatia | 1007 | 2 | 104 |
17 | England | 1004 | -7 | -86 |
18 | Greece | 991 | -6 | -73 |
19 | Ukraine | 898 | -3 | -17 |
20 | Côte d'Ivoire | 879 | 3 | 70 |
21 | Mexico | 862 | -1 | -20 |
22 | Ecuador | 849 | 4 | 58 |
23 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 841 | -2 | -32 |
24 | Denmark | 807 | -1 | -2 |
25 | Algeria | 759 | -3 | -99 |
26 | Scotland | 734 | 1 | -52 |
27 | Romania | 733 | 2 | -28 |
28 | Sweden | 724 | 4 | -17 |
29 | Costa Rica | 723 | -1 | -39 |
30 | Venezuela | 720 | 10 | 48 |
31 | Serbia | 717 | -1 | -28 |
32 | Turkey | 714 | 3 | -8 |
33 | Panama | 684 | -2 | -59 |
34 | Czech Republic | 646 | 0 | -78 |
35 | Egypt | 645 | 1 | -70 |
36 | Slovenia | 644 | -11 | -156 |
37 | Hungary | 642 | 10 | 18 |
38 | Honduras | 637 | -5 | -94 |
39 | Armenia | 635 | -1 | -47 |
40 | Tunisia | 621 | 8 | 9 |
41 | Iran | 618 | 2 | -23 |
41 | Nigeria | 618 | 3 | -22 |
43 | Austria | 614 | -1 | -29 |
44 | Wales | 606 | -3 | -38 |
45 | Ghana | 604 | -8 | -100 |
45 | Japan | 604 | 1 | -22 |
47 | Slovakia | 588 | 2 | -3 |
48 | Iceland | 570 | 4 | 4 |
49 | Paraguay | 566 | 1 | -9 |
50 | Montenegro | 559 | 1 | -15 |
51 | Guinea | 555 | 1 | -11 |
52 | Korea Republic | 533 | 5 | -14 |
53 | Uzbekistan | 523 | 6 | -16 |
54 | Cameroon | 520 | 2 | -38 |
54 | Norway | 520 | 1 | -42 |
56 | Finland | 508 | 5 | -24 |
57 | Jordan | 500 | 6 | -10 |
58 | Burkina Faso | 495 | 2 | -43 |
59 | Peru | 487 | -14 | -140 |
60 | Poland | 478 | 9 | 4 |
61 | Senegal | 476 | 13 | 25 |
62 | Libya | 471 | 2 | -27 |
63 | Sierra Leone | 469 | -9 | -96 |
64 | United Arab Emirates | 466 | 8 | 6 |
65 | Mali | 462 | -8 | -85 |
66 | South Africa | 450 | -1 | -46 |
67 | Albania | 444 | -1 | -51 |
67 | Israel | 444 | 8 | 0 |
69 | Oman | 443 | 10 | 23 |
70 | Republic of Ireland | 440 | 0 | -33 |
71 | Bolivia | 429 | -4 | -54 |
72 | Bulgaria | 425 | 6 | 0 |
73 | Azerbaijan | 410 | 10 | 14 |
74 | Cape Verde Islands | 401 | -35 | -273 |
75 | Australia | 397 | -13 | -129 |
76 | FYR Macedonia | 396 | 4 | -23 |
76 | Zambia | 396 | 0 | -45 |
78 | China PR | 391 | 25 | 60 |
79 | Saudi Arabia | 384 | 11 | 3 |
80 | Angola | 377 | 13 | 13 |
80 | Morocco | 377 | -3 | -62 |
82 | Belarus | 376 | 0 | -21 |
83 | Congo | 375 | 2 | -18 |
84 | Jamaica | 373 | -3 | -38 |
85 | Trinidad and Tobago | 369 | -14 | -101 |
86 | Palestine | 362 | 8 | 4 |
87 | Qatar | 361 | 13 | 22 |
88 | Uganda | 358 | -2 | -32 |
89 | Togo | 357 | -1 | -26 |
90 | Iraq | 356 | 14 | 27 |
90 | Northern Ireland | 356 | 0 | -25 |
92 | Benin | 354 | -5 | -32 |
93 | Estonia | 345 | 5 | 2 |
94 | Gabon | 344 | -5 | -38 |
95 | Kenya | 339 | 13 | 43 |
96 | Congo DR | 338 | -12 | -57 |
96 | Georgia | 338 | 0 | -11 |
98 | Zimbabwe | 334 | 1 | -6 |
99 | Botswana | 332 | -7 | -43 |
99 | Niger | 332 | 13 | 48 |
101 | New Zealand | 330 | -4 | -17 |
102 | Moldova | 325 | -1 | -9 |
103 | Latvia | 314 | 6 | 21 |
104 | Lithuania | 312 | 2 | -7 |
105 | Bahrain | 288 | 5 | -1 |
106 | Tanzania | 287 | 7 | 4 |
107 | Kuwait | 281 | 8 | 5 |
108 | Luxembourg | 278 | 11 | 11 |
109 | Rwanda | 276 | 7 | 5 |
110 | Ethiopia | 271 | -3 | -46 |
111 | Equatorial Guinea | 270 | -9 | -63 |
112 | Namibia | 264 | 2 | -13 |
113 | Haiti | 262 | -40 | -190 |
114 | Liberia | 256 | 2 | -15 |
114 | Sudan | 256 | 6 | 2 |
116 | Mozambique | 255 | 2 | -14 |
117 | Central African Republic | 253 | -12 | -68 |
118 | Canada | 250 | -8 | -39 |
119 | Lebanon | 249 | 6 | 16 |
120 | Cuba | 245 | -25 | -109 |
121 | El Salvador | 234 | -53 | -247 |
121 | Malawi | 234 | 1 | -13 |
123 | Aruba | 233 | -3 | -21 |
124 | Tajikistan | 232 | 2 | 3 |
125 | Dominican Republic | 230 | 6 | 18 |
126 | Burundi | 222 | 2 | 1 |
127 | Kazakhstan | 220 | -3 | -21 |
128 | Philippines | 218 | 1 | 1 |
129 | Afghanistan | 217 | 1 | 2 |
129 | Vietnam | 217 | -6 | -25 |
131 | Lesotho | 213 | 8 | 19 |
131 | Suriname | 213 | 5 | 16 |
133 | Mauritania | 208 | 4 | 12 |
134 | Guatemala | 204 | -7 | -22 |
135 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 203 | -2 | 0 |
136 | Guinea-Bissau | 199 | -2 | -2 |
136 | New Caledonia | 199 | 4 | 9 |
138 | St. Lucia | 195 | -1 | -1 |
139 | Cyprus | 193 | 3 | 4 |
140 | Chad | 183 | -6 | -18 |
140 | Turkmenistan | 183 | 3 | 0 |
142 | Grenada | 182 | 2 | 0 |
143 | Madagascar | 179 | 1 | -3 |
144 | Kyrgyzstan | 176 | 5 | 13 |
145 | Maldives | 171 | 2 | 0 |
146 | Syria | 169 | -6 | -21 |
147 | Korea DPR | 163 | -1 | -12 |
148 | Gambia | 161 | 0 | -5 |
149 | Antigua and Barbuda | 152 | 2 | -6 |
150 | Indonesia | 151 | 7 | 16 |
151 | Malta | 146 | -19 | -58 |
152 | India | 144 | 2 | 0 |
152 | Malaysia | 144 | 1 | -5 |
154 | Singapore | 140 | 1 | -1 |
155 | Guyana | 136 | 1 | -1 |
156 | Puerto Rico | 134 | 2 | 0 |
157 | Thailand | 128 | -8 | -35 |
158 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 124 | 2 | 0 |
159 | Swaziland | 123 | 14 | 38 |
160 | Myanmar | 122 | -1 | -11 |
161 | Belize | 117 | -9 | -35 |
162 | Hong Kong | 114 | 1 | 2 |
163 | Bangladesh | 103 | 4 | 5 |
164 | Montserrat | 99 | 2 | 0 |
165 | Nepal | 96 | -1 | -6 |
166 | Pakistan | 95 | -2 | -7 |
167 | Dominica | 93 | 2 | 0 |
167 | Liechtenstein | 93 | -5 | -25 |
169 | Barbados | 92 | 1 | 0 |
170 | Laos | 87 | -2 | -10 |
171 | Tahiti | 85 | -10 | -37 |
172 | Comoros | 84 | 2 | 0 |
173 | Bermuda | 83 | 2 | 0 |
174 | Guam | 79 | 4 | 2 |
175 | Nicaragua | 78 | 1 | 0 |
175 | Solomon Islands | 78 | 5 | 8 |
177 | Sao Tome e Principe | 72 | -5 | -14 |
178 | Chinese Taipei | 71 | -2 | -7 |
178 | Sri Lanka | 71 | 1 | -2 |
180 | Yemen | 70 | 3 | 9 |
181 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 66 | 26 | 66 |
182 | Seychelles | 64 | -1 | -2 |
183 | Curacao | 63 | -1 | -2 |
184 | Faroe Islands | 61 | -13 | -28 |
185 | Mauritius | 56 | -1 | -1 |
186 | South Sudan | 43 | -1 | -4 |
187 | Vanuatu | 38 | 3 | 10 |
188 | Fiji | 31 | 0 | -3 |
189 | Mongolia | 29 | -2 | -6 |
190 | Samoa | 28 | -1 | -4 |
190 | US Virgin Islands | 28 | 5 | 5 |
192 | Bahamas | 26 | -6 | -14 |
192 | Brunei Darussalam | 26 | 0 | 0 |
192 | Timor-Leste | 26 | 0 | 0 |
192 | Tonga | 26 | 0 | 0 |
196 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 |
197 | American Samoa | 18 | 1 | 0 |
198 | Andorra | 16 | 2 | 0 |
199 | Papua New Guinea | 14 | -3 | -7 |
200 | British Virgin Islands | 13 | -2 | -5 |
200 | Cambodia | 13 | -10 | -15 |
202 | Eritrea | 11 | -1 | 0 |
203 | Somalia | 8 | -1 | 0 |
204 | Macau | 7 | -2 | -1 |
205 | Djibouti | 6 | -1 | 0 |
206 | Cook Islands | 5 | -1 | 0 |
207 | Anguilla | 1 | -1 | -2 |
208 | Bhutan | 0 | -1 | 0 |
208 | San Marino | 0 | -1 | 0 |
The second matchday in each group at the World Cup has been played. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the confederation weightings.
ReplyDelete2014-06-23 Brazil - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
2014-06-23 Croatia - Mexico; World Cup; X
2014-06-23 Netherlands - Chile; World Cup; X
2014-06-23 Spain - Australia; World Cup; 1
2014-06-24 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
2014-06-24 Greece - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; X
2014-06-24 Costa Rica - England; World Cup; X
2014-06-24 Uruguay - Italy; World Cup; X
2014-06-25 Ecuador - France; World Cup; 2
2014-06-25 Switzerland - Honduras; World Cup; 1
2014-06-25 Argentina - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
2014-06-25 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iran; World Cup; X
2014-06-25 Indonesia - Nepal; Friendly; 1
2014-06-25 Mozambique - Ethiopia; Friendly; X
2014-06-26 Germany - USA; World Cup; 1
2014-06-26 Portugal - Ghana; World Cup; 1
2014-06-26 Algeria - Russia; World Cup; 2
2014-06-26 Belgium - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
2014-06-28 Brazil - Chile; World Cup; 1
2014-06-28 Colombia - Italy; World Cup; 1
2014-06-29 Netherlands - Mexico; World Cup; 1
2014-06-29 Costa Rica - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; Costa Rica PSO win
2014-06-29 China PR - Mali; Friendly; 1
2014-06-30 France - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
2014-06-30 Germany - Russia; World Cup; 1
2014-07-01 Argentina - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
2014-07-01 Belgium - USA; World Cup; Belgium PSO win
2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
2014-07-05 Netherlands - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
2014-07-05 Argentina - Belgium; World Cup; 1
2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
2 Germany 1559 (-)
3 Brazil 1555 (-)
4 Colombia 1490 (+4)
5 Netherlands 1362 (+10)
6 Belgium 1351 (+5)
7 France 1289 (+10)
8 Uruguay 1276 (-1)
9 Spain 1229 (-8)
10 Switzerland 1216 (-4)
11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
12 Chile 1095 (+2)
13 Italy 1078 (-4)
14 USA 1024 (-1)
15 Croatia 1007 (+3)
16 Greece 991 (-4)
17 Russia 959 (+2)
18 Costa Rica 931 (+10)
19 Cote d'Ivoire 929 (+4)
20 England 911 (-10)
21 Ukraine 898 (-5)
22 Mexico 862 (-2)
23 Algeria 857 (-1)
24 Ecuador 849 (+2)
25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 820 (-4)
26 Denmark 807 (-3)
27 Scotland 734 (-)
28 Romania 733 (+1)
29 Sweden 724 (+3)
30 Venezuela 720 (+10)
CONMEBOL 1.00
UEFA 0.96
CONCACAF 0.87
CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85
Auch Europe ! That's not good at all.
At the same time: a very entertaining World Cup so far. Lots of goals and surprises.
Looking at the predicted results & ranking, these teams of the top 20 may have a very different ranking if the results turn out to be slightly different:
ReplyDeleteBrazil, Netherlands & Chile: depending on the result of Netherlands-Chile, these 3 teams can face very different opponents and that way a very different result.
Uruguay: seems to me able to qualify for round of 16, so this could make a big change. Also makes the result of Italy unsure.
Portugal: IF (IF, IF!!!) they would still qualify, they can still get a big bonus.
Jeroen, as it happens the result for each team is unsure. It's just a prediction, as you know, but based on the (in my opinion) best NT-ranking system there is.
DeleteIt's just for fun, this prediction business :) I hope everyone is aware of all the what-if-scenario's around here when interpreting the information ...
Thanks Ed.
ReplyDelete