Assumptions:
- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding
The July 2015 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2011 and July 2015. This means the 0.5 time frame is set for all European teams except Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and France.
This the July 2015 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including July 2nd, 2014 and matches scheduled up to July 2014 (only those on fifa.com).
The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).
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Changes since the last update:
Netherlands and France replace Ukraine and England in pot 1.
Romania and Serbia replace Armenia and Slovenia in pot 2.
Bulgaria replace Moldova in pot 4.
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, England, Denmark, Scotland, Romania, Serbia, Sweden
Pot 3: Turkey, Czech Republic, Wales, Hungary, Austria, Armenia, Slovenia, Iceland, Slovakia
Pot 4: Finland, Poland, Montenegro, Norway, Albania, FYR Macedonia, Republic of Ireland, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan
Pot 5: Israel, Estonia, Latvia, Northern Ireland, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Malta, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino
Rank -Previous Rank - Team - Points
1 2 Germany 723 2 6 Belgium 714 3 11 Netherlands 645 4 1 Switzerland 630 5 3 Spain 628 6 10 France 594 7 5 Portugal 576 8 4 Greece 550 9 7 Italy 532 ------------------------------ 10 12 Croatia 477 11 13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 470 12 8 Ukraine 468 13 9 England 451 14 17 Denmark 401 15 15 Scotland 384 16 19 Romania 380 17 20 Serbia 354 18 15 Sweden 347 ------------------------------ 19 22 Turkey 342 20 23 Czech Republic 340 21 25 Wales 337 22 24 Hungary 331 23 26 Austria 317 24 14 Armenia 314 25 18 Slovenia 313 26 21 Iceland 305 27 27 Slovakia 278 ------------------------------ 28 28 Finland 267 29 34 Poland 245 30 32 Montenegro 241 31 34 Norway 239 32 32 Albania 223 33 29 FYR Macedonia 216 34 36 Republic of Ireland 214 35 39 Bulgaria 211 36 31 Azerbaijan 204 ------------------------------ 37 38 Israel 200 38 40 Estonia 174 39 41 Latvia 166 40 37 Northern Ireland 165 41 42 Belarus 164 42 30 Moldova 153 43 43 Lithuania 145 44 44 Luxembourg 143 45 45 Georgia 142 ------------------------------ 46 45 Kazakhstan 103 47 47 Cyprus 93 48 48 Malta 84 49 49 Liechtenstein 34 50 50 Faroe Islands 14 51 51 Andorra 9 52 52 San Marino 0
Great, but I miss Gibraltar. Germany-England-Czech Republic-Montenegro-Israel would be terrible
ReplyDeleteBecause at the moment Gibraltar is not a FIFA-member their EURO 2016 qualifying matches are not included on fifa.com. Technically, this leads to a ranking list without Gibraltar. Wiki states: "Gibraltar is not yet a member of FIFA. However, the GFA aims to become a full FIFA member in time to participate in 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification."
DeleteDo you know do points obtained by Poland and Ireland (and other teams) vs. Gibraltar count for the FIFA ranking if Gibraltar are not a member of FIFA? What if Gibraltar joins the FIFA in the middle of qualifying tournament, would points then be calculated retroactively for the time they were not a member?
DeleteWell, at the moment Gibraltar's opponents do not obtain points for their matches as Gibraltar is not a FIFA-member yet and does not appear in the FIFA-ranking.
DeleteAs soon as Gibraltar is a full FIFA-member -and according to the Wiki-statement that will be before July 2015 when the WC-2018 qualification draw is performed- FIFA could certainly retroactively include all the EURO-2016 qualification matches of Gibraltar into their fixture-list, calculating the matchpoints for the already played matches with the ranking at the moment of Gibraltar's admission and Gibraltar at spot 210 in that ranking.
what about CAF?
ReplyDeleteIs there is new qualification format for 2018?
or will be the same one as 2014?
@Hossam Hassan
DeleteI remember reading somewhere about change a format in CAF.
Any chance to Portugal miss the top seed position?
ReplyDeleteHey Edgar, can't you put the probability (%) of the teams already locked or almost locked as seeds?
With one year until the draw, no team is locked as seed. You need more than 1000 points to be seeded.
DeleteFor Comparison
DeleteAug 2010 FIFA rankings for top 9 UEFA teams
1. Spain 1883
2. Netherlands 1659
4. Germany 1464
7. England 1125
8. Portugal 1062
11. Italy 982
12. Greece 975
13. Serbia 969
14. Croatia 968
22. Norway 878
July 2011 FIFA Rankings
1. Spain 1588
2. Netherlands 1542
3. Germany 1305
6. England 1146
7. Portugal 1076
8. Italy 1059
9. Croatia 1033
12. Norway 972
13. Greece 959
27. Serbia 798
As you can see that Aug 2010 top 9 UEFA FIFA ranked teams did not change much from the July 2011 top 9 UEFA FIFA ranked teams.
Portugal at present is #7 highest ranked UEFA team.
It's going to take an epic collapse by Portugal to miss Pot 1 if it is solely based on FIFA rankings as of July 2015.
Of the teams not currently in Pot 1 Ukraine seems to be the team that has the best chance to jump up.
Will you shortly put the 50% of July 2015 FIFA Ranking for CONCACAF, CAF and AFC? And maybe the probabilities in UEFA of each team finishing in each pot.
ReplyDeleteNext Friday.
DeleteHow on earth were Switzerland ranked first!? - oh yeah, FIFA are based in Zurich
ReplyDeleteNo, they simply had an exceptional run - that's how they were seeded for the final draw.
Delete2nd July 2015, has that date been released by FIFA as the scheduled date for the rankings? I see the draw is announced for 25th July, but I dont see any ranking release schedule for 2015 on their website. Where did you learn of 2nd July? This year the July ranking was released in 17th and 2013 was released July 4th.
ReplyDelete2 July was the date of the last match played at the time of this post.
DeleteIt could be critical which date FIFA choose to release the July 2015 rankings. For Netherland after July 12th could see them drop into Pot 2, but before they will be safe with the win against brazil in WC 3rd place playoff still counting at 100%.
DeleteYou're right, but it would be fair to have all the WC14-matches in the same timeframe i.e. the second. So I expect the publishing date of the July 2015 ranking will be July 16th 2015.
DeleteThanks. That makes sense to me too.
DeleteGreece deserve 1st seed always qualify for pazt tournuments ok there playen bad now down manager and some players have no confidence playing for a poor manager like ranneri now he is sacked greece make finals euro 16 and world cup 18
ReplyDelete