July 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June were Sierra Leone - best opponent for 87 teams.


Of the top 20 teams, only 5 would have gained points: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and England, but none of them would have climbed in the rankings.

Teams from the top 100 that would have gained the most (ranking-wise):

20 - Benin
19 - Equatorial Guinea
18 - Haiti

The recommended team for all three - Sierra Leone.

Teams from the top 50 that would have gained the most (ranking-wise):

4 - Guinea
3 - Venezuela, Hungary, Japan, Montenegro
2 - Russia, Sweden, Serbia, Slovenia, Wales, Paraguay

Sierra Leone were the recommended opponent for Guinea, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovenia and Wales.
Slovenia were the recommended opponent for Japan, Russia, Sweden and Serbia.
Armenia were the recommended opponent for Venezuela, Paraguay and Romania.

July Ranking - Team - Recommended opponent - Point difference - Rank difference

1	Germany	Switzerland	-28	0
2	Argentina	Slovenia	-30	0
3	Netherlands	Slovenia	-23	-1
4	Colombia	Slovenia	-22	0
5	Belgium	Slovenia	-22	0
6	Uruguay	Slovenia	-20	0
7	Brazil	Switzerland	-9	0
8	Spain	Switzerland	4	0
9	Switzerland	Armenia	-18	-1
10	France	Slovenia	-14	0
11	Portugal	Slovenia	-5	0
12	Chile	Slovenia	-10	-1
13	Greece	Slovenia	-3	0
14	Italy	Slovenia	4	0
15	USA	Slovenia	-3	0
16	Costa Rica	Armenia	-24	0
17	Croatia	Slovenia	9	0
18	Mexico	Slovenia	0	0
19	Bosnia-Herzegovina	Slovenia	10	0
20	England	Armenia	5	0
21	Ecuador	Slovenia	9	0
22	Ukraine	Slovenia	-1	0
23	Russia	Slovenia	8	2
24	Algeria	Sierra Leone	-12	0
25	Côte d'Ivoire	Slovenia	11	0
26	Denmark	Slovenia	13	0
27	Scotland	Armenia	7	0
28	Romania	Armenia	11	1
29	Sweden	Slovenia	15	2
30	Venezuela	Armenia	18	3
31	Serbia	Slovenia	11	2
32	Turkey	Armenia	5	1
33	Panama	Armenia	11	0
34	Nigeria	Armenia	5	0
35	Czech Republic	Armenia	25	1
36	Egypt	Armenia	5	1
37	Slovenia	Sierra Leone	5	2
38	Ghana	Armenia	0	0
38	Hungary	Sierra Leone	17	3
40	Honduras	Armenia	-6	-1
41	Armenia	Sierra Leone	6	1
42	Tunisia	Sierra Leone	8	0
43	Austria	Sierra Leone	8	1
44	Wales	Sierra Leone	15	2
45	Japan	Slovenia	13	3
46	Slovakia	Sierra Leone	7	0
47	Iceland	Sierra Leone	6	0
48	Paraguay	Armenia	23	2
49	Iran	Armenia	-1	0
50	Montenegro	Sierra Leone	27	3
51	Guinea	Sierra Leone	17	4
52	Uzbekistan	Sierra Leone	16	0
53	Cameroon	Sierra Leone	-2	-1
53	Norway	Sierra Leone	21	1
55	Finland	Sierra Leone	15	3
56	Korea Republic	Armenia	14	1
57	Jordan	Sierra Leone	7	1
58	Burkina Faso	Sierra Leone	13	3
59	Peru	Armenia	52	7
60	Mali	Sierra Leone	22	4
61	Poland	Sierra Leone	14	2
62	Senegal	Sierra Leone	-3	0
63	Libya	Sierra Leone	0	0
64	Sierra Leone	Aruba	42	9
65	United Arab Emirates	Sierra Leone	-7	0
66	South Africa	Sierra Leone	12	0
67	Albania	Sierra Leone	28	4
67	Israel	Sierra Leone	25	3
69	Oman	Sierra Leone	10	3
70	Republic of Ireland	Armenia	28	5
71	Bolivia	Sierra Leone	3	0
72	Bulgaria	Sierra Leone	34	6
73	Azerbaijan	Sierra Leone	16	1
74	FYR Macedonia	Sierra Leone	19	2
75	Cape Verde Islands	Sierra Leone	75	13
76	Australia	Armenia	12	2
77	Zambia	Sierra Leone	4	1
78	Saudi Arabia	Sierra Leone	-4	0
79	Angola	Sierra Leone	24	4
79	Morocco	Sierra Leone	22	3
81	Belarus	Sierra Leone	26	6
82	Congo	Sierra Leone	22	6
83	Jamaica	Sierra Leone	6	4
84	Trinidad and Tobago	Sierra Leone	27	7
85	Palestine	Sierra Leone	15	6
86	Qatar	Sierra Leone	15	5
87	Uganda	Sierra Leone	3	1
88	Togo	Sierra Leone	76	17
89	Iraq	Sierra Leone	22	10
89	Northern Ireland	Sierra Leone	21	10
91	Benin	Sierra Leone	76	20
92	Estonia	Sierra Leone	23	7
93	Gabon	Sierra Leone	22	8
94	China PR	Sierra Leone	1	0
95	Kenya	Sierra Leone	19	8
96	Congo DR	Sierra Leone	30	11
96	Georgia	Sierra Leone	34	12
98	Zimbabwe	Sierra Leone	11	6
99	Botswana	Sierra Leone	24	10
99	Niger	Sierra Leone	36	14
101	New Zealand	Sierra Leone	15	9
102	Moldova	Sierra Leone	16	7
103	Latvia	Sierra Leone	22	5
104	Lithuania	Sierra Leone	22	6
105	Bahrain	Sierra Leone	20	0
106	Tanzania	Sierra Leone	17	1
107	Kuwait	Sierra Leone	4	0
108	Luxembourg	Aruba	7	1
109	Rwanda	Sierra Leone	18	4
110	Ethiopia	Sierra Leone	24	5
111	Equatorial Guinea	Sierra Leone	75	19
112	Namibia	Sierra Leone	27	7
113	Haiti	Sierra Leone	77	18
114	Mozambique	Sierra Leone	18	4
115	Liberia	Sierra Leone	75	14
115	Sudan	Sierra Leone	28	8
117	Central African Republic	Sierra Leone	75	15
118	Canada	Sierra Leone	19	6
119	Lebanon	Sierra Leone	22	8
120	Cuba	Sierra Leone	76	17
121	El Salvador	Sierra Leone	37	10
121	Malawi	Sierra Leone	46	13
123	Aruba	Bhutan	-6	-2
124	Tajikistan	Aruba	41	14
125	Dominican Republic	Aruba	42	14
126	Burundi	Sierra Leone	24	6
127	Kazakhstan	Sierra Leone	34	10
128	Philippines	Aruba	7	3
129	Afghanistan	Aruba	7	4
129	Vietnam	Aruba	12	4
131	Lesotho	Aruba	9	6
131	Suriname	Aruba	42	14
133	Mauritania	Aruba	3	1
134	Guatemala	Sierra Leone	76	26
135	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	Aruba	42	15
136	Guinea-Bissau	Aruba	42	15
136	New Caledonia	Sierra Leone	75	26
138	St. Lucia	Aruba	20	8
139	Cyprus	Sierra Leone	46	18
140	Chad	Aruba	42	15
140	Turkmenistan	Aruba	42	15
142	Grenada	Aruba	42	17
143	Madagascar	Aruba	41	17
144	Kyrgyzstan	Aruba	14	4
145	Maldives	Aruba	10	2
146	Syria	Sierra Leone	36	12
147	Korea DPR	Sierra Leone	38	11
148	Gambia	Sierra Leone	75	27
149	Antigua and Barbuda	Aruba	42	10
150	Malta	Aruba	25	5
151	India	Aruba	15	2
151	Malaysia	Aruba	15	2
153	Indonesia	Aruba	14	4
154	Singapore	Aruba	14	5
155	Guyana	Sierra Leone	76	22
156	Puerto Rico	Aruba	43	12
157	Thailand	Sierra Leone	60	17
158	St. Kitts and Nevis	Aruba	42	11
159	Swaziland	Aruba	19	6
160	Myanmar	Aruba	42	13
161	Belize	Aruba	42	12
162	Hong Kong	Aruba	30	11
163	Bangladesh	Aruba	42	12
164	Nepal	Aruba	20	4
165	Pakistan	Aruba	21	4
166	Montserrat	American Samoa	26	8
167	Dominica	Aruba	24	6
167	Liechtenstein	Aruba	25	6
169	Barbados	Aruba	42	13
170	Laos	Bhutan	14	5
171	Tahiti	Aruba	42	13
172	Comoros	Aruba	42	14
173	Bermuda	Aruba	42	15
174	Guam	American Samoa	26	11
175	Nicaragua	Aruba	43	14
175	Solomon Islands	Aruba	41	14
177	Sao Tome e Principe	Aruba	42	15
178	Chinese Taipei	Bhutan	26	11
178	Sri Lanka	American Samoa	26	11
180	Yemen	Aruba	26	13
181	Turks and Caicos Islands	American Samoa	26	12
182	Seychelles	Aruba	42	19
183	Curacao	Aruba	42	20
184	Faroe Islands	Aruba	29	14
185	Mauritius	Aruba	32	15
186	South Sudan	Aruba	29	9
187	Vanuatu	Aruba	41	13
188	Fiji	Sierra Leone	74	25
189	Mongolia	American Samoa	25	3
190	Samoa	American Samoa	25	4
190	US Virgin Islands	American Samoa	26	4
192	Bahamas	Aruba	43	11
192	Brunei Darussalam	American Samoa	25	6
192	Timor-Leste	American Samoa	25	6
192	Tonga	American Samoa	25	6
196	Cayman Islands	Aruba	42	13
197	American Samoa	Bhutan	26	11
198	Andorra	Aruba	26	11
199	Papua New Guinea	Aruba	41	13
200	British Virgin Islands	American Samoa	26	13
200	Cambodia	American Samoa	26	13
202	Eritrea	Aruba	42	16
203	Somalia	Bhutan	26	15
204	Macau	American Samoa	25	16
205	Djibouti	American Samoa	26	17
206	Cook Islands	American Samoa	26	18
207	Anguilla	American Samoa	26	15
208	Bhutan	American Samoa	26	16
208	San Marino	American Samoa	23	12

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.