The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of
Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and
we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is
computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the
given team and their recommended opponent
The most popular opponent for the month of July were again Sierra Leone - best opponent for 51 teams. However, Aruba (46) and Iceland (44) were not far behind.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Best teams to play against in September
This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).
I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.
I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.
FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable ranking
FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these results, Antigua and Barbuda, and Guyana expected to climb more than 50 spots, while Guatemala and Dominican Republic are expected to climb more than 40. Macedonia, Venezuela and Luxembourg will drop around 30 places.
In the top 50, Cape Verde Islands, Bulgaria and Wales would be the best movers, while Venezuela, Sierra Leone and Slovakia would be the worst movers.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these results, Antigua and Barbuda, and Guyana expected to climb more than 50 spots, while Guatemala and Dominican Republic are expected to climb more than 40. Macedonia, Venezuela and Luxembourg will drop around 30 places.
In the top 50, Cape Verde Islands, Bulgaria and Wales would be the best movers, while Venezuela, Sierra Leone and Slovakia would be the worst movers.
FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable results
Here are the probable results used for the September 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
FIFA Ranking: September 2014 preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.
Quite a busy month - 138 matches.
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
Quite a busy month - 138 matches.
Most points gained (worst case scenario):
| 36 - Namibia |
| 31 - Rwanda |
| 29 - Wales |
| 25 - Saudi Arabia |
| 24 - Cuba |
| 21 - Tahiti |
| 18 - Israel |
| 15 - Benin |
| 13 - Antigua and Barbuda |
| 10 - Equatorial Guinea |
| 10 - New Caledonia |
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Signed on as FIFA ranking consultant
On Monday, I signed a fancy 4-page contract to provide consultancy services to a football association. Since the contract also has a confidentiality clause, I'm not allowed to go into details about this association. I shall call it Amplistan.
The negotiations took 1167 days since they first contacted me until the signing of the contract. Mind you, there have been wars shorter than these negotiations. I had lost all hope at one point, but God sometimes answers prayers when you least expect Him to.
The negotiations took 1167 days since they first contacted me until the signing of the contract. Mind you, there have been wars shorter than these negotiations. I had lost all hope at one point, but God sometimes answers prayers when you least expect Him to.
AFCON qualifiers: CAF not following their own regulations
Equatorial Guinea used an ineligible player (Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta) in both legs of the AFCON 2015 first round against Mauritania.
Mauritania won the first leg 1-0 and lost the return leg 3-0.
Looking at article 36 of the AFCON regulations (2012 version):
Mauritania won the first leg 1-0 and lost the return leg 3-0.
Looking at article 36 of the AFCON regulations (2012 version):
Friday, August 8, 2014
FIFA Ranking: August 2014 final preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.
Two issues regarding AFCON 2015 qualifiers - I haven't been able to find the regulations and got no reply from CAF.
1. Equatorial Guinea were disqualified for using an ineligible player, but the matches against Mauritania were not awarded 3 - 0.
2. Seychelles withdrew, but there's no decision regarding the result of their home match vs. Sierra Leone. If the match is awarded 3 - 0 to Sierra Leone, they will climb to 43rd.
Two issues regarding AFCON 2015 qualifiers - I haven't been able to find the regulations and got no reply from CAF.
1. Equatorial Guinea were disqualified for using an ineligible player, but the matches against Mauritania were not awarded 3 - 0.
2. Seychelles withdrew, but there's no decision regarding the result of their home match vs. Sierra Leone. If the match is awarded 3 - 0 to Sierra Leone, they will climb to 43rd.