2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (12 September 2014)

I've received comments and e-mails about 2018 WCQ pots for UEFA. "When will you do the sims?"

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.




Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Italy, England, Switzerland, Portugal, Romania
Pot 2: Greece, Croatia, France, Czech Republic, Denmark, Serbia, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden
Pot 3: Austria, Finland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Wales, Scotland, Turkey, Iceland, Israel
Pot 4: Hungary, Albania, Montenegro, Republic of Ireland, Slovenia, Poland, Northern Ireland, Armenia, FYR Macedonia
Pot 5: Estonia, Norway, Cyprus, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino

Germany and Netherlands were always in the first pot in all the simulations.

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me.

Pot 6

99.37% - San Marino
96.95% - Andorra
92.45% - Faroe Islands
91.73% - Liechtenstein
81.77% - Malta
67.61% - Luxembourg
42.98% - Georgia
40.87% - Kazakhstan
28.40% - Moldova
18.44% - Azerbaijan
11.09% - Lithuania
8.30% - Belarus
8.30% - Latvia
5.02% - FYR Macedonia
1.52% - Armenia
1.25% - Norway
1.23% - Israel
1.17% - Poland
0.98% - Cyprus
0.12% - Slovenia
0.12% - Estonia
0.10% - Northern Ireland
0.08% - Finland
0.08% - Hungary
0.05% - Montenegro
0.01% - Bulgaria
0.01% - Scotland

Pot 5

72.57% - Azerbaijan
59.72% - Cyprus
59.16% - Moldova
57.54% - Latvia
55.99% - Estonia
55.24% - Norway
54.93% - Lithuania
54.62% - Belarus
51.59% - Kazakhstan
44.35% - FYR Macedonia
42.50% - Armenia
41.32% - Georgia
28.83% - Luxembourg
27.56% - Northern Ireland
24.86% - Slovenia
24.20% - Poland
16.97% - Israel
16.77% - Malta
15.68% - Montenegro
14.70% - Hungary
13.18% - Republic of Ireland
7.99% - Liechtenstein
7.83% - Albania
7.34% - Wales
7.25% - Finland
7.09% - Faroe Islands
5.98% - Bulgaria
5.84% - Scotland
4.10% - Austria
4.01% - Iceland
3.04% - Turkey
2.99% - Andorra
2.15% - Serbia
0.74% - Slovakia
0.63% - San Marino
0.37% - Sweden
0.24% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.06% - Czech Republic
0.06% - Denmark
0.01% - Croatia

Pot 4

47.58% - Republic of Ireland
41.34% - Northern Ireland
40.88% - Iceland
40.53% - Albania
40.44% - Norway
39.64% - Estonia
38.91% - Poland
38.06% - Armenia
38.05% - Slovenia
36.69% - Turkey
34.59% - FYR Macedonia
33.81% - Montenegro
33.42% - Cyprus
32.24% - Hungary
31.43% - Scotland
30.03% - Wales
29.50% - Bulgaria
28.75% - Belarus
27.89% - Israel
27.02% - Latvia
26.57% - Lithuania
24.12% - Finland
20.99% - Slovakia
20.89% - Austria
12.86% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.80% - Georgia
11.72% - Serbia
11.31% - Moldova
10.93% - Sweden
8.40% - Azerbaijan
7.75% - Denmark
6.97% - Kazakhstan
3.15% - Czech Republic
3.14% - Luxembourg
2.30% - Ukraine
1.97% - Croatia
1.37% - Malta
0.99% - Greece
0.76% - Portugal
0.43% - Romania
0.42% - Faroe Islands
0.27% - Liechtenstein
0.06% - Andorra
0.03% - Switzerland

Pot 3

58.46% - Slovakia
48.82% - Turkey
42.47% - Ukraine
41.83% - Scotland
41.56% - Iceland
41.53% - Sweden
38.22% - Austria
36.52% - Bulgaria
36.00% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
35.47% - Finland
35.23% - Albania
34.11% - Republic of Ireland
33.64% - Wales
32.78% - Denmark
30.92% - Hungary
30.60% - Montenegro
28.96% - Israel
27.02% - Serbia
26.89% - Poland
26.16% - Slovenia
23.52% - Czech Republic
23.25% - Northern Ireland
18.41% - Croatia
14.91% - Armenia
14.26% - Greece
13.31% - FYR Macedonia
8.60% - Portugal
8.01% - Romania
7.57% - Belarus
6.63% - Lithuania
6.33% - Latvia
5.64% - Cyprus
4.80% - France
4.13% - Estonia
3.29% - Georgia
3.07% - Norway
2.46% - Switzerland
1.44% - England
1.04% - Moldova
0.58% - Azerbaijan
0.57% - Kazakhstan
0.38% - Luxembourg
0.29% - Italy
0.18% - Spain
0.09% - Malta
0.04% - Faroe Islands
0.01% - Liechtenstein 

Pot 2

85.91% - France
56.62% - Czech Republic
51.17% - Greece
48.65% - Ukraine
46.27% - Croatia
44.46% - Romania
44.15% - Sweden
43.90% - Denmark
39.13% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
38.55% - Switzerland
37.93% - England
35.79% - Serbia
32.24% - Portugal
30.02% - Austria
26.49% - Finland
23.08% - Bulgaria
22.38% - Wales
19.98% - Scotland
19.58% - Israel
19.25% - Slovakia
17.98% - Hungary
17.18% - Montenegro
14.99% - Albania
12.94% - Italy
12.89% - Iceland
11.17% - Turkey
9.57% - Slovenia
8.11% - Poland
7.48% - Spain
6.78% - Northern Ireland
5.04% - Republic of Ireland
2.85% - Armenia
2.66% - FYR Macedonia
1.51% - Belgium
0.78% - Lithuania
0.73% - Latvia
0.72% - Belarus
0.57% - Georgia
0.24% - Cyprus
0.12% - Estonia
0.09% - Moldova
0.04% - Luxembourg
0.01% - Azerbaijan

Pot 1

100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
98.49% - Belgium
92.34% - Spain
86.77% - Italy
60.63% - England
58.96% - Switzerland
58.40% - Portugal
47.10% - Romania
33.58% - Greece
33.34% - Croatia
23.32% - Serbia
16.65% - Czech Republic
15.51% - Denmark
11.77% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
9.29% - France
6.77% - Austria
6.61% - Wales
6.59% - Finland
6.58% - Ukraine
5.37% - Israel
4.91% - Bulgaria
4.08% - Hungary
3.02% - Sweden
2.68% - Montenegro
1.42% - Albania
1.24% - Slovenia
0.97% - Northern Ireland
0.91% - Scotland
0.72% - Poland
0.66% - Iceland
0.56% - Slovakia
0.28% - Turkey
0.16% - Armenia
0.09% - Republic of Ireland
0.08% - Latvia
0.07% - FYR Macedonia
0.04% - Belarus
0.04% - Georgia

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.