Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these results, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to climb more than 40 spots, with Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Togo, Cuba, Israel, Egypt, South Africa climbing 20 or more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Slovenia and Moldova will drop more than 20 spots, with Bolivia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and New Caledonia dropping 15 or more.
Trinidad and Tobago, Israel, Egypt and South Africa are expected to be the best movers in the top 50, while the worst movers will be Congo, Montenegro, Tunisia, Iceland and Albania.
Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Philippines, South Sudan will most likely improve their best ever ranking.
Sudan, Thailand, Gambia, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands will drop to new lows.
Probable October 2014 rank - Team - Probable October 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Germany | 1766 | 0 | 1 |
2 | Argentina | 1603 | 0 | -28 |
3 | Colombia | 1511 | 0 | 23 |
4 | Netherlands | 1447 | 0 | -9 |
5 | Belgium | 1388 | 0 | -56 |
6 | Brazil | 1270 | 0 | -21 |
7 | Spain | 1227 | 1 | -1 |
8 | Uruguay | 1201 | -1 | -42 |
9 | France | 1191 | 0 | -11 |
10 | Switzerland | 1162 | 0 | -13 |
11 | Portugal | 1103 | 0 | -47 |
12 | Chile | 1075 | 0 | -25 |
13 | Italy | 1064 | 0 | -4 |
14 | Greece | 1020 | 0 | -32 |
15 | Algeria | 989 | 5 | 63 |
16 | Costa Rica | 974 | -1 | -14 |
17 | Mexico | 954 | -1 | -9 |
18 | Croatia | 938 | 1 | 10 |
19 | Ukraine | 920 | 5 | 65 |
20 | England | 919 | -2 | -16 |
21 | Denmark | 918 | 6 | 85 |
22 | Côte d'Ivoire | 915 | 0 | 36 |
23 | USA | 900 | -6 | -36 |
24 | Romania | 883 | 2 | 46 |
25 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 837 | 0 | -14 |
26 | Serbia | 820 | 8 | 174 |
27 | Ecuador | 812 | -6 | -77 |
28 | Austria | 810 | 11 | 188 |
29 | Russia | 796 | -6 | -79 |
30 | Czech Republic | 769 | -2 | -43 |
30 | Senegal | 769 | 6 | 124 |
32 | Cape Verde Islands | 755 | 9 | 151 |
33 | Sweden | 726 | -1 | 64 |
34 | Ghana | 721 | -1 | 60 |
35 | Wales | 715 | -6 | 1 |
36 | Turkey | 707 | 2 | 70 |
37 | Bulgaria | 683 | 9 | 113 |
38 | Cameroon | 678 | 4 | 77 |
39 | Scotland | 674 | -10 | -40 |
40 | Egypt | 658 | 21 | 145 |
41 | Nigeria | 651 | -4 | 9 |
42 | Tunisia | 650 | -11 | -51 |
43 | Israel | 615 | 21 | 117 |
44 | Slovakia | 614 | -4 | -2 |
45 | Iceland | 598 | -11 | -48 |
45 | Trinidad and Tobago | 598 | 41 | 224 |
47 | South Africa | 596 | 20 | 138 |
48 | Iran | 571 | -4 | -1 |
49 | Mali | 570 | 10 | 44 |
50 | Japan | 559 | -2 | 2 |
51 | Finland | 558 | 14 | 67 |
52 | Panama | 546 | 3 | 6 |
53 | Burkina Faso | 544 | -5 | -13 |
54 | Montenegro | 540 | -11 | -51 |
55 | Peru | 527 | -8 | -36 |
56 | Albania | 509 | -11 | -62 |
57 | Hungary | 500 | -3 | -48 |
58 | Guinea | 492 | -10 | -65 |
59 | Uzbekistan | 491 | -1 | -39 |
60 | Congo | 487 | -12 | -70 |
61 | Antigua and Barbuda | 478 | 19 | 67 |
61 | Korea Republic | 478 | 2 | -23 |
63 | Guatemala | 475 | -6 | -59 |
64 | Honduras | 470 | -8 | -65 |
64 | Republic of Ireland | 470 | -2 | -36 |
66 | United Arab Emirates | 463 | 7 | 33 |
67 | Paraguay | 460 | -7 | -54 |
68 | Poland | 456 | 2 | 20 |
69 | Jordan | 450 | 0 | 0 |
70 | El Salvador | 440 | 2 | 9 |
70 | Libya | 440 | -2 | -15 |
72 | Haiti | 431 | 47 | 165 |
73 | Northern Ireland | 428 | -2 | -7 |
74 | Uganda | 420 | 5 | 2 |
75 | Zambia | 418 | 13 | 53 |
76 | Norway | 417 | 0 | -4 |
77 | Benin | 413 | 1 | -7 |
77 | Slovenia | 413 | -24 | -142 |
79 | Dominican Republic | 405 | 28 | 110 |
79 | Lithuania | 405 | 24 | 96 |
81 | Gabon | 399 | 2 | 7 |
82 | Oman | 391 | -6 | -30 |
83 | Venezuela | 388 | -17 | -88 |
84 | Armenia | 380 | -32 | -176 |
84 | Morocco | 380 | 3 | 9 |
86 | Congo DR | 379 | -13 | -51 |
87 | Angola | 373 | 14 | 61 |
87 | Sierra Leone | 373 | -12 | -51 |
89 | Estonia | 369 | -8 | -34 |
90 | Iraq | 362 | 0 | 5 |
91 | Australia | 357 | -7 | -33 |
92 | Rwanda | 356 | 1 | 7 |
93 | Cyprus | 348 | -8 | -40 |
94 | Belarus | 345 | -5 | -19 |
95 | China PR | 343 | 2 | 2 |
96 | Latvia | 341 | 3 | 8 |
97 | FYR Macedonia | 340 | 15 | 54 |
97 | Zimbabwe | 340 | -5 | -13 |
99 | Saudi Arabia | 335 | -17 | -67 |
100 | Qatar | 332 | -4 | -10 |
101 | Cuba | 310 | 21 | 53 |
102 | Botswana | 306 | -11 | -50 |
103 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 302 | 3 | 1 |
103 | Togo | 302 | 22 | 57 |
105 | Malawi | 292 | -7 | -48 |
105 | Mozambique | 292 | 4 | -2 |
107 | Bahrain | 290 | -3 | -15 |
108 | Jamaica | 284 | -8 | -37 |
108 | Namibia | 284 | 5 | 0 |
110 | Tanzania | 280 | 5 | 3 |
111 | Palestine | 278 | -9 | -33 |
112 | Bolivia | 273 | -18 | -73 |
112 | Kenya | 273 | -1 | -15 |
114 | Georgia | 271 | -4 | -19 |
115 | Canada | 267 | 5 | 2 |
116 | Lesotho | 266 | -1 | -11 |
116 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 266 | 1 | -10 |
118 | Niger | 258 | -11 | -37 |
119 | Liberia | 249 | 7 | 8 |
120 | Lebanon | 246 | 1 | -18 |
121 | Equatorial Guinea | 238 | -7 | -42 |
122 | Azerbaijan | 233 | -27 | -111 |
122 | Luxembourg | 233 | 5 | -6 |
124 | Burundi | 232 | 6 | 6 |
125 | Kuwait | 231 | -1 | -19 |
126 | Philippines | 228 | 8 | 10 |
127 | Guinea-Bissau | 226 | 3 | 0 |
127 | Moldova | 226 | -22 | -76 |
129 | New Zealand | 225 | -11 | -49 |
130 | Aruba | 218 | -1 | -15 |
130 | Kazakhstan | 218 | -3 | -21 |
132 | Myanmar | 217 | 11 | 24 |
133 | Ethiopia | 214 | -1 | -8 |
133 | Tajikistan | 214 | 3 | 1 |
135 | Afghanistan | 209 | 0 | -5 |
136 | Vietnam | 208 | 6 | 14 |
137 | St. Lucia | 197 | -14 | -59 |
137 | Turkmenistan | 197 | 4 | 0 |
139 | Mauritania | 195 | 1 | -3 |
140 | Chad | 194 | 4 | 9 |
140 | Sudan | 194 | -7 | -27 |
142 | Maldives | 183 | 3 | 0 |
143 | Madagascar | 180 | 3 | 0 |
144 | Central African Republic | 178 | -7 | -31 |
145 | Grenada | 176 | -8 | -33 |
146 | Curaçao | 171 | 2 | 7 |
147 | Korea DPR | 168 | 3 | 8 |
148 | Suriname | 167 | -1 | -8 |
149 | Kyrgyzstan | 157 | 2 | -1 |
150 | Syria | 154 | 2 | 0 |
151 | Guyana | 148 | 2 | 0 |
152 | New Caledonia | 142 | -15 | -67 |
153 | Laos | 141 | 16 | 57 |
154 | Singapore | 131 | -5 | -32 |
155 | Indonesia | 129 | 1 | -1 |
155 | Malta | 129 | 0 | -4 |
157 | Malaysia | 127 | -3 | -7 |
158 | India | 119 | 0 | 3 |
158 | Puerto Rico | 119 | -1 | -7 |
160 | Swaziland | 117 | 0 | 3 |
161 | Guam | 111 | 3 | 9 |
162 | Thailand | 102 | -4 | -14 |
163 | Barbados | 101 | -2 | -11 |
164 | Tahiti | 100 | -2 | -6 |
165 | Belize | 99 | -2 | -4 |
166 | Hong Kong | 96 | -2 | -6 |
167 | Gambia | 90 | -1 | -11 |
167 | Nicaragua | 90 | 3 | 7 |
169 | Montserrat | 86 | -1 | 0 |
170 | Seychelles | 81 | 2 | 0 |
171 | Bermuda | 80 | -1 | -3 |
171 | Comoros | 80 | 3 | 0 |
171 | Liechtenstein | 80 | 1 | -1 |
174 | Sri Lanka | 76 | 2 | 0 |
175 | Sao Tome e Principe | 72 | 2 | 0 |
176 | Bangladesh | 68 | 5 | 3 |
177 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 66 | 3 | 0 |
178 | Chinese Taipei | 64 | 0 | -6 |
179 | Yemen | 62 | 5 | 4 |
180 | Nepal | 61 | 3 | -1 |
181 | Dominica | 53 | -14 | -36 |
181 | Solomon Islands | 53 | 1 | -11 |
183 | Pakistan | 51 | -8 | -26 |
184 | South Sudan | 43 | 1 | 0 |
185 | Faroe Islands | 42 | -6 | -25 |
186 | Macau | 40 | 0 | -1 |
187 | Samoa | 37 | 0 | 0 |
188 | Vanuatu | 33 | 0 | 0 |
189 | Mauritius | 32 | 0 | 0 |
189 | Timor-Leste | 32 | 4 | 6 |
191 | Fiji | 30 | -1 | 0 |
192 | Mongolia | 29 | -1 | 0 |
193 | American Samoa | 26 | 0 | 0 |
193 | Bahamas | 26 | 0 | 0 |
193 | Tonga | 26 | 0 | 0 |
196 | Brunei Darussalam | 24 | -3 | -2 |
197 | US Virgin Islands | 20 | -5 | -8 |
198 | Cambodia | 19 | 1 | 6 |
199 | Papua New Guinea | 13 | 0 | 0 |
200 | Eritrea | 11 | 2 | 0 |
201 | Cayman Islands | 10 | -3 | -13 |
202 | Andorra | 9 | 1 | 0 |
203 | British Virgin Islands | 8 | -4 | -5 |
203 | Somalia | 8 | 1 | 0 |
205 | Cook Islands | 6 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Djibouti | 6 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Anguilla | 2 | 0 | 1 |
208 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
208 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Do you think France stand a chance to keep the seeded status for the WC draw in July 2015 (assuming we'll have 9 groups again)? Could winning all the friendlies be enough or are they inevitably set to drop below the European Top 9?
ReplyDeletenogomet,
DeleteEdgar has made some simulations about that already, see:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/09/2018-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html.
France has only 9% chance of staying in pot 1 and an overwhelming 86% probability of ending up in pot 2.
Thanks, Ed. I missed that somehow.
DeleteWhy is the prelim draw being made so early? Over a year before the UEFA fixtures usually begin. Previous draws are normall in December/January
ReplyDeleteIn order to give more match dates for AFC/CAF/CONCACAF.
Delete