Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.2 time frame (games played between 36 and 48 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.
It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.
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See the previous update.
Belgium replace Uruguay in the list of seeds.
This is the top 30 (just to include England and Spain) of the intermediate October 2017 ranking:
| 1 | Germany | 219 |
| 2 | Argentina | 188 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 185 |
| 4 | Colombia | 173 |
| 5 | France | 158 |
| 6 | Belgium | 155 |
| 7 | Brazil | 155 |
| 8 | Uruguay | 142 |
| 9 | Costa Rica | 128 |
| 10 | Chile | 126 |
| 11 | Portugal | 120 |
| 12 | Slovakia | 115 |
| 13 | Switzerland | 113 |
| 14 | Algeria | 111 |
| 15 | Czech Republic | 106 |
| 16 | Austria | 101 |
| 17 | Greece | 98 |
| 18 | Croatia | 97 |
| 19 | Mexico | 96 |
| 20 | Ukraine | 95 |
| 21 | Italy | 94 |
| 22 | Scotland | 93 |
| 23 | Côte d'Ivoire | 91 |
| 24 | Romania | 91 |
| 25 | England | 87 |
| 26 | Spain | 85 |
| 27 | USA | 80 |
| 28 | Denmark | 79 |
| 29 | Guinea | 74 |
| 30 | Tunisia | 74 |
Teams are sorted using the unrounded totals.
Right now, the seeds for the 2018 World Cup would be: Russia, Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Colombia, France, Belgium and Brazil.
Are these the final totals for the 0.2 cycle? Are you counting all games from November 1, 2013 - October 31, 2014?
ReplyDeleteTry to figure out how to calculate these numbers myself.
I assume the October 2017 ranking will be published on 12 October.
DeleteWhy do you assume 12 October? In some months the publishing date is the first Thursday of the month, and in some it's the second Thursday. Is there any reason for this or is it simply random?
DeleteTwo days after the October matches. See FIFA calendar
DeleteBut why is the next publishing date set for 1 October 2015? There are matches later that month.
DeleteIf you have the FIFA match calendar for 2009 and 2013 you'll notice a pattern: the October ranking used to seed the final draw was release 2 days after the October match dates.
DeleteThe October 2015 ranking date is in this case irrelevant.
I see. I was looking to find a more general pattern of determining publishing dates. I'm working on my own tables and I'm struggling to find out the dates for the 2016 and 2017. FIFA has announced the dates only for the 2015.
DeleteAny chance to update this one, with the probable seeds for 2018?
ReplyDeleteAfter the October matches.
Delete