2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (31 October 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Romania, Spain, Portugal, England, Czech Republic
Pot 2: Croatia, France, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iceland, Slovakia, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Austria
Pot 3: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Slovenia, Poland, Israel, Wales, Denmark, Sweden, Scotland
Pot 4: Republic of Ireland, Hungary, Finland, Albania, Turkey, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Norway, Armenia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Cyprus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malta, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino

Germany and Netherlands were always in the first pot in all the simulations.

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me. 

Northern Ireland jump from 4th to 2nd pot.

Czech Republic replace Swizerland in Pot 1.
Iceland, Slovakia and Austria replace Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Denmark and Sweden in Pot 2.
Slovenia and Poland replace Finland, Turkey and Bulgaria in Pot 3.
Norway replace FYR Macedonia in Pot 4.

Pot 6

99.87% - San Marino
98.21% - Andorra
96.92% - Faroe Islands
92.75% - Malta
89.31% - Liechtenstein
78.60% - Luxembourg
48.06% - Georgia
47.26% - Kazakhstan
22.16% - Belarus
13.75% - Azerbaijan
9.96% - Moldova
1.84% - Latvia
0.86% - FYR Macedonia
0.35% - Cyprus
0.09% - Lithuania
0.01% - Estonia

Pot 5

96.19% - Cyprus
86.52% - Latvia
84.69% - Moldova
81.95% - Azerbaijan
80.60% - Estonia
71.86% - Belarus
69.67% - Lithuania
51.05% - FYR Macedonia
49.55% - Kazakhstan
48.45% - Armenia
39.79% - Georgia
26.96% - Montenegro
22.96% - Bulgaria
20.37% - Luxembourg
11.46% - Norway
11.11% - Finland
10.61% - Liechtenstein
8.12% - Albania
7.23% - Malta
5.26% - Turkey
4.86% - Israel
3.08% - Hungary
3.00% - Faroe Islands
2.60% - Republic of Ireland
1.78% - Andorra
0.13% - San Marino
0.09% - Scotland
0.04% - Sweden
0.02% - Poland

Pot 4

88.56% - Turkey
84.45% - Norway
82.69% - Albania
60.23% - Bulgaria
53.68% - Finland
51.90% - Montenegro
44.00% - Armenia
42.73% - Hungary
41.53% - Republic of Ireland
40.53% - FYR Macedonia
33.06% - Scotland
32.55% - Wales
27.43% - Lithuania
27.37% - Israel
23.86% - Denmark
21.70% - Sweden
19.36% - Estonia
14.20% - Slovenia
13.26% - Serbia
12.69% - Northern Ireland
11.99% - Poland
11.38% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.16% - Latvia
10.41% - Georgia
9.36% - Austria
6.44% - Greece
5.88% - Belarus
5.35% - Moldova
4.30% - Azerbaijan
3.46% - Cyprus
3.19% - Kazakhstan
1.03% - Luxembourg
0.08% - Liechtenstein
0.08% - Faroe Islands
0.05% - Switzerland
0.02% - Malta
0.02% - Iceland
0.01% - Andorra
0.01% - Ukraine

Pot 3

69.90% - Sweden
66.72% - Greece
59.89% - Poland
58.29% - Denmark
57.21% - Slovenia
54.79% - Austria
54.11% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
49.99% - Scotland
44.91% - Northern Ireland
43.58% - Republic of Ireland
41.80% - Serbia
40.83% - Hungary
39.11% - Wales
31.08% - Israel
30.28% - Finland
28.47% - Iceland
17.85% - Montenegro
16.81% - Bulgaria
15.11% - Ukraine
14.45% - Slovakia
9.13% - Albania
8.82% - Switzerland
7.06% - Armenia
6.54% - FYR Macedonia
6.48% - Czech Republic
6.14% - Turkey
6.09% - Croatia
4.09% - Norway
2.74% - Lithuania
1.58% - England
1.56% - Portugal
1.49% - Georgia
1.38% - Romania
0.57% - France
0.47% - Latvia
0.41% - Spain
0.13% - Italy
0.10% - Belarus
0.03% - Estonia
0.01% - Belgium

Pot 2

81.85% - Slovakia
81.08% - France
73.30% - Switzerland
69.17% - Ukraine
52.35% - Iceland
44.36% - Croatia
41.45% - Czech Republic
35.10% - Serbia
33.94% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.52% - England
33.48% - Austria
31.02% - Northern Ireland
27.25% - Poland
26.82% - Greece
24.87% - Slovenia
24.81% - Israel
23.20% - Spain
22.74% - Portugal
21.87% - Wales
21.12% - Romania
17.69% - Denmark
17.07% - Italy
16.67% - Scotland
13.26% - Hungary
12.23% - Republic of Ireland
8.36% - Sweden
4.93% - Finland
3.28% - Montenegro
1.27% - Belgium
1.02% - FYR Macedonia
0.49% - Armenia
0.25% - Georgia
0.07% - Lithuania
0.06% - Albania
0.04% - Turkey
0.01% - Latvia

Pot 1

100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
98.72% - Belgium
82.80% - Italy
77.50% - Romania
76.39% - Spain
75.70% - Portugal
64.90% - England
52.07% - Czech Republic
49.55% - Croatia
19.16% - Iceland
18.35% - France
17.83% - Switzerland
15.71% - Ukraine
11.88% - Israel
11.38% - Northern Ireland
9.84% - Serbia
6.47% - Wales
3.72% - Slovenia
3.70% - Slovakia
2.37% - Austria
0.85% - Poland
0.57% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.19% - Scotland
0.16% - Denmark
0.10% - Hungary
0.06% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Greece
0.01% - Montenegro

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.