How CHAN could put a dent in your World Cup hopes

What is CHAN?

African Nations Championship - a tournament exclusively players from the national league. You must play in the league of your country to be eligible. An Angolan player in the South African league is not eligible.

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (18 December 2015)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 17 December 2015.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:

FIFA Ranking: January 2016 preview

FIFA will release the ranking on 7 January 2016.

This will most likely be the final preview for January.

15 matches left - all friendlies for FIFA ranking purposes. Most of them are part of the 2015 SAFF Championship.

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 December.

5 matches remaining - all part of the 2015 CECAFA Cup (and thus friendlies).

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 10 teams:

UEFA Nations League update (27 November 2015)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

With the EURO 2016 qualifying now complete, here's a look at how the leagues shape up.

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 preview (II)

Next update: 27 November 2015.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 December.

14 matches remaining - all part of the 2015 CECAFA Cup (and thus friendlies).

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 December.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the December 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 December.

134 games, less than last month, but enough to create a disturbance in the force.

There are 5 teams fighting for the top spot. 

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (30 October 2015)

The draw for Round 3 is yet unknown.

The draw date, location and procedure for Round Three will be confirmed by the end of Round Two by the Organising Committee for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™.

But since some of my African readers have been very insistent, I've run 10000 simulations assuming the draw takes place in December, using the December FIFA ranking.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Only two matches left - both friendlies as far as FIFA are concerned. They are actually CHAN qualifiers.

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC second round simulations (23 October 2015)

By request.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 22 October 2015. And assuming Kuwait manage to fix their issues in time for the November qualifier vs. Myanmar.

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format :

Best and worst teams to play against in November

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

For the best part I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

EURO 2016 play-off sims and comparison with previous sims

From an Elo rating point of view, 3 of the 4 EURO 2016 play-offs are extremely balanced.

Sweden (1723) vs. Denmark (1723)
Norway (1638) vs. Hungary (1632)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1728) vs. Republic of Ireland (1720)
Ukraine (1788) vs. Slovenia (1598)

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the November 2015 probable ranking (II). They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

30 games left, all in Africa. One World Cup qualifier and 29 friendlies (most of them 2016 CHAN qualifiers).

The top 50 is pretty much set, only 7 African teams could change it. For more stats, see the probable ranking.

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Only two years left

Next update: October 2016.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.3 time frame (games played between 24 and 36 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

Revolutionary blueprint for Scottish football leaked

According to unnamed sources at Hampden Park, a revolutionary blueprint is currently considered by Scottish FA board.

The report highlights the 3 points difference between Scotland and the Republic of Ireland (closest between 4th and 3rd in all the groups) and the failure of qualifying to an expanded EURO 2016, despite being one of the promoters of this expansion.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

177 games - many of them competitive, so expect a lot of changes in the ranking.

AFC MA Ranking: Tajikistan eyeing Champions League

AFC announced the MA ranking in November 2014, using the October 2014 FIFA ranking for the NT ranking part of the formula. So should they announce a new ranking (possibly used to determine the allocations for the 2017 club competitions), Singapore are in for some bad news.

Here's how things stand after the quarterfinals of the AFC Champions League and AFC Cup.

UEFA Nations League update (25 September 2015)

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

Best and worst teams to play against in October

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

September 2015: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2015 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were Faroe Islands (118), followed by Albania (47) and Bhutan (31).

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (11 September 2015)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

FIFA Ranking: October 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 1 October.

Top 40 already set.

Only two matches left - both friendlies.

FIFA Ranking: September 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 September.

Top 69 already set.

8 matches left, all friendlies (deadline for matches being Sunday).

FIFA Ranking: September 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 September.

God willing, I will post the final preview on 28 August.

12 matches left. All friendlies. Of course, that's based on FIFA's World Match Center - and it has a couple of bugs. For instance, the Libya - Morocco August CHAN qualifier is missing.

FIFA Ranking: August 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 August.

5 matches left - all friendlies.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 9 teams:

2018 FWCQ draw: Europe's winners and losers

I was curious to see the impact of the draw on teams' qualification chances.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

So I ran 10000 simulations doing first the draw, then adding the fixtures and another 10000 simulations with the actual groups and fixtures.

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)

Finally found the time to for this.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

AFC member association ranking update (24 July 2015)

After the Round of 16 in the AFC Champions League and AFC Cup.

No association has dropped out of the top 24 - those are the associations eligible to receive direct slots in the AFC Champions League.

More info about the AFC MA ranking.

FIFA Ranking: August 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 August.

I will most likely post the final preview on 31 July, if I'm not on vacation. That's a big if.

13 matches left: the 8 final matches of the 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup and a couple of friendlies (actually Indian Ocean Islands Games and East Asian Cup matches).

Serbia - Albania: Somebody didn't do their homework

The Romanian Liga 1 teams and the entities in charge of organizing the competition are regulars at CAS. In 2013 for instance, Rapid Bucuresti won a relegation play-off vs. Concordia Chiajna and played two matches in the 2013/2014 season. However, Chiajna's officials contested the FA's decision to organize the play-off at CAS - asking for emergency procedures (I'm not sure if this is the correct legal term, but, hey, I'm a programmer, not a lawyer). CAS ruled in Concordia Chiajna favour and they were reinstated in Liga 1, although the competition had already started.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF format and pots

The format is almost official, the pots are not.

FIFA have released their Statistical Kit for the Preliminary Draw.

Remember CAF announced in January the format for the African qualifiers.

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

15 games left: The final two games of the 2015 Copa America and 13 friendlies (most of them CHAN qualifiers).

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 30 teams:

The blame game - an age old problem

Remember the Genesis story about Adam, Eve and the snake? (I believe it's true, by the way.) The blame passing started then and it's still very much happening these days. I see it in my house when I ask my kids who made that mess in their room.

It also happens in football. I saw it in my 6+ years as Romania correspondent for SoccerWay. When a manager comes to a club and has poor results, he will be quick to point the finger to his predecessor and blame him. Some club managers also take this mentality with them when moving into national team management.

UEFA Nations League update (3 July 2015)

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.


The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (3 July 2015)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

2018 FIFA World Cup: Preliminary draw pots for UEFA

The preliminary draw is less than a month from today.
 
Assuming UEFA will choose the July FIFA ranking for seeding, we already know the pots, as European teams have no matches left to play before the deadline.

These are the pots and some quick analysis.

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

Most likely this ranking will be used to seed both the European and African sections of the 2018 FIFA World Cup draw.

141 matches until the deadline. Copa America 2015 + lots of qualifiers. Big points available for many teams.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 June 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

Per scenario sims can be found here.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulations by team

Because I've received lots of "What are my team's chances if they do this and that and everything else stays the same" questions, I've decided to run 10000 sims for each possible scenario. Lost patience after Serbia and dropped to 1000 sims per scenario.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

The usual simulations can be found here.

Some very important matches:

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

11 matches left - all friendlies, although 3 of them are the final matches of the 2015 COSAFA Cup.

The top 50 is pretty much set, only Mexico and Northern Ireland having matches scheduled before the deadline.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.

2018 FIFA World Cup: A look at the AFC seeding

A bit overdue, but I've been quite busy.

Improving a team's FIFA ranking is rarely a last minute fix type of thing. As with Amplistan it involves long term planning.

Many of the AFC teams involved in the draw could have climbed to a higher pot with some planning in the year before the draw. However, I will only look at their March games.

May 2015: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the May 2015 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were Equatorial Guinea (62), followed by Northern Ireland (50) and American Samoa (31). Wales were close behind (28).

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

39 matches in total - most of them in the 2015 COSAFA Cup and a World Cup qualifier: Thailand vs. Vietnam.

Besides Mexico, Ghana and Northern Ireland no other top 50 teams will be in action before the June ranking is released.

Best and worst teams to play against in May

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

Interesting (for me at least) to see one of the worst teams to play against has scheduled friendlies in May and June against two of the best teams to play against, one of them against the top team in the list below.

2018 FIFA World Cup (AFC): Minimum travel groups

Some AFC teams are worried about the travel they will face in the group stage.

I dusted off my minimum travel groups code used for the EURO 2016 draw and here's what came out.

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (17 April 2015)

Long overdue post. And it's quite long.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.

Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

FIFA Ranking: May 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 May.

A very quiet month. Most of the changes are due to devaluation of results. Of course, there's USA's win vs. Mexico and UEFA's decision to award the Montenegro - Russia EURO 2016 qualifier to the guests.

Only one match left - a friendly:

30/Apr Suriname - Guyana

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 2 teams

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 April 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 31 March 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

There are new locked teams, besides Germany and Netherlands.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (3 April 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 31 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April.

Best movers:

46 - Bhutan
40 - Bermuda
33 - Timor-Leste

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Second round pots

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

With no matches left before the deadline, the pots are set.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (27 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Yemen have advanced, after a 0 - 0 vs. Pakistan played in Bahrain.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Only one spot left - it will be either Pakistan or Yemen - as the return leg was rescheduled because of the Lahore church bombings.

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April. The April edition will also be used to seed the Asian group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

A couple of things will happen regardless of these probable results.

• Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Cook Islands, Djibouti will drop to new lows
• We will have a new bottom team, replacing Bhutan. It will be Anguilla (if they fail to register at least a single point in their World Cup qualifiers vs. Nicaragua) or Cook Islands and Djibouti - tied on 4 points.
• Bhutan will register their best move ever - at least 14 spots

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the April 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

66 - India
64 - Bhutan
54 - Brunei Darussalam
47 - Timor-Leste
27 - Yemen
22 - Cambodia
18 - Honduras
15 - Azerbaijan
12 - Armenia
9 - Guinea
9 - Vietnam

AFC member association ranking update (27 February 2015)

After the first match days in the AFC Champions League and AFC Cup.

No association has dropped out of the top 24 - those are the associations eligible to receive direct slots in the AFC Champions League.

More info about the AFC MA ranking.

FIFA Ranking: March 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 March.

Only two matches left, both friendlies between Bermuda and Grenada on 6th and 8th March. The top 147 is already set.

This is how the points and rankings could change for these two teams.

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Only 4 matches left. The final and 3rd place match of the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations and two friendlies.

This is how the points and rankings could change for the 8 teams involved:

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Official format and simulations

CAF have announced some details regarding the qualification format for the 2018 World Cup.

The competing teams will have to go through three preliminary rounds in order to bring the number of teams down to 20 so as to be able to constitute five (5) groups of four teams, where the first from each group will qualifier for the World Cup.

The preliminaries of the FIFA World Cup shall begin during the two FIFA dates in October 2015, given that the draws shall take place on 25 July 2015 at Saint-Petersburg in Russia.

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings:

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

14 matches remaining - the final of the 2015 AFC Asian Cup, the KO stage of the 2015 Africa Cup of nations (8 matches) and 5 friendlies.

This is how the points and ranking could change for the 20 teams involved:

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

How a cancelled cup brought a job offer

First of all, let me say I'm not an expert when it comes to coaching, nor a scout. I rarely watch football matches because I'd rather spend time with my family. Even if I wanted to watch a game, my kids would quickly climb on my back clamoring for my undivided attention and/or the remote. Thus, I'm not able to say whether the quality of the football played by a certain team has improved or not.

Also, this post is about the quirks of the FIFA ranking, not about the value of a certain coach. I wanted to write this in December, but I didn't want to potentially ruin the job opportunity he received. Yes, I know. I'm overestimating my importance. I did say "potentially".

2018 FIFA World Cup draw: AFC will use FIFA ranking

In December I wrote to Mr. Windsor John, AFC’s Executive Director of Competitions Division, asking for details regarding the seeding criteria for the preliminary draw and group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (Asian Zone).

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

79 - Costa Rica
59 - Egypt
44 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
42 - Denmark
39 - Mozambique
38 - Mauritania
34 - Armenia
29 - Portugal
29 - Poland
29 - Ethiopia