Only two matches left, both friendlies between Bermuda and Grenada on 6th and 8th March. The top 147 is already set.
This is how the points and rankings could change for these two teams.
Team - Min points - Max points - Worst rank - Best rank
Grenada | 120 | 156 | 159 | 148 |
Bermuda | 55 | 106 | 180 | 163 |
In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.
Best movers:
9 - St. Lucia
8 - Northern Ireland, Rwanda, Afghanistan
7 - Venezuela, Mauritania, Liechtenstein
Worst movers:
-25 - Lebanon
-13 - Palestine
-12 - Myanmar
For Lebanon it will also be the worst ever move. They dropped 23 spots in October 1995.
Best movers in the top 50:
8 - Northern Ireland
6 - Israel, Poland
2 - Italy, Romania, Iceland, Hungary
Worst movers in the top 50:
-4 - Ukraine, Cameroon
-3 - Greece, Wales, Cape Verde Islands, Congo
-2 - England
One team will improve its best ever ranking:
Rwanda (64 - 68 in December 2014).
Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:
Syria (152 - 152 in September 2014)
Chinese Taipei (188 - 188 in October 2014)
Two teams will drop to new lows:
Sweden (45 - 44 in February 2015)
India (172 - 171 in December 2014)
Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:
Mauritania (116 - 114 in March 2008) - 7 years
Romania (14 - 13 in September 2008) - 6 years and 6 months
Poland (34 - 29 in March 2009) - 6 years
Czech Republic (16 - 15 in October 2009) - 5 years and 5 months
Tanzania (101 - 99 in October 2009) - 5 years and 5 months
Turks and Caicos Islands (at least 175 - 174 in February 2010) - 5 years and 1 month
Israel (26 - 26 in May 2010) - 4 years and 10 months
Mozambique (86 - 80 in August 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Uganda (74 - 70 in November 2010) - 4 years and 4 months
Barbados (141 - 141 in June 2011) - 3 years and 9 months
Liechtenstein (123 - 118 in September 2011) - 3 years and 6 months
Latvia (95 - 94 in September 2012) - 2 years and 6 months
Gabon (54 - 49 in January 2013) - 2 years and 2 months
Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:
Paraguay (80 - 81 in September 1995) - 19 years and 6 months
Mongolia (195 - 196 in February 2001) - 14 years and 1 month
Greece (27 - 32 in August 2006) - 8 years and 7 months
Honduras (81 - 81 in September 2006) - 8 years and 6 months
Spain (11 - 12 in January 2007) - 8 years and 2 months
Nicaragua (185 - 185 in November 2008) - 6 years and 4 months
Azerbaijan (138 - 139 in September 2009) - 5 years and 6 months
Montenegro (67 - 73 in August 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Morocco (89 - 95 in September 2010) - 4 years and 6 months
Jordan (102 - 107 in January 2011) - 4 years and 2 months
Zimbabwe (124 - 126 in May 2011) - 3 years and 10 months
Sierra Leone (87 - 92 in August 2011) - 3 years and 7 months
Lebanon (146 - 146 in October 2011) - 3 years and 5 months
Sao Tome e Principe (at most 178 - 196 in January 2012) - 3 years and 2 months
USA (32 - 33 in March 2013) - 2 years
Tajikistan (140 - 152 in March 2013) - 2 years
Congo DR will be ranked above Cameroon for the first time ever.
Liechtenstein will be ranked above Georgia for the first time ever.
Mauritania will be ranked above Canada for the first time ever.
Pakistan will be ranked above India for the first time ever.
Rwanda will be ranked above Bulgaria, Norway and Republic of Ireland for the first time ever.
Faroe Islands will be ranked above FYR Macedonia for the first time in the last 20 years and 10 months.
Italy will be ranked above Spain for the first time in the last 6 years and 9 months.
Romania will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 6 years and 6 months.
Czech Republic will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 6 years and 4 months.
March 2015 rank - Team - March 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Germany | 1770 | 0 | 41 |
2 | Argentina | 1577 | 0 | 43 |
3 | Colombia | 1499 | 0 | 43 |
4 | Belgium | 1471 | 0 | 41 |
5 | Netherlands | 1415 | 0 | 30 |
6 | Brazil | 1348 | 0 | 15 |
7 | Portugal | 1191 | 0 | 2 |
8 | France | 1180 | 0 | 12 |
9 | Uruguay | 1164 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Italy | 1146 | 2 | 34 |
11 | Spain | 1130 | -1 | -14 |
12 | Switzerland | 1126 | -1 | 9 |
13 | Costa Rica | 1095 | 0 | 21 |
14 | Romania | 1081 | 2 | 59 |
15 | Chile | 1057 | -1 | 20 |
16 | Czech Republic | 1045 | 1 | 55 |
17 | England | 1031 | -2 | 3 |
18 | Algeria | 986 | 0 | 5 |
19 | Croatia | 963 | 0 | 18 |
20 | Côte d'Ivoire | 944 | 0 | 12 |
21 | Mexico | 935 | 0 | 23 |
22 | Slovakia | 932 | 0 | 29 |
23 | Austria | 916 | 0 | 35 |
24 | Ghana | 887 | 1 | 23 |
25 | Tunisia | 881 | 1 | 21 |
26 | Israel | 880 | 6 | 75 |
27 | Greece | 872 | -3 | 1 |
28 | Denmark | 863 | 0 | 17 |
29 | Ecuador | 852 | 0 | 12 |
30 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 841 | 0 | 9 |
31 | Ukraine | 838 | -4 | -21 |
32 | USA | 828 | -1 | 4 |
33 | Russia | 788 | 0 | -4 |
34 | Poland | 778 | 6 | 69 |
35 | Iceland | 776 | 2 | 33 |
36 | Senegal | 772 | 0 | 28 |
37 | Wales | 763 | -3 | -1 |
38 | Cape Verde Islands | 761 | -3 | 5 |
39 | Scotland | 727 | -1 | -11 |
40 | Serbia | 709 | -1 | -14 |
41 | Iran | 691 | 0 | -9 |
42 | Nigeria | 684 | 0 | 20 |
43 | Northern Ireland | 679 | 8 | 53 |
44 | Guinea | 669 | -1 | 7 |
45 | Sweden | 663 | -1 | 9 |
46 | Hungary | 659 | 2 | 25 |
47 | Congo DR | 651 | -1 | 10 |
48 | Slovenia | 649 | -1 | 9 |
49 | Cameroon | 646 | -4 | 0 |
50 | Equatorial Guinea | 630 | -1 | 0 |
51 | Mali | 626 | 2 | 13 |
52 | Congo | 625 | -3 | -5 |
53 | Japan | 617 | 2 | 12 |
54 | Gabon | 610 | 4 | 25 |
55 | South Africa | 608 | 1 | 16 |
56 | Korea Republic | 594 | -2 | -14 |
56 | Turkey | 594 | -4 | -25 |
58 | Egypt | 582 | -1 | -8 |
59 | Peru | 565 | 0 | -1 |
60 | Zambia | 560 | 0 | 4 |
61 | Albania | 557 | 2 | 9 |
61 | Panama | 557 | 0 | 2 |
63 | Trinidad and Tobago | 553 | -1 | 2 |
64 | Rwanda | 550 | 8 | 58 |
65 | Australia | 549 | -2 | 1 |
66 | Republic of Ireland | 537 | 1 | 16 |
67 | Montenegro | 531 | -2 | -6 |
68 | Burkina Faso | 529 | 0 | 16 |
69 | United Arab Emirates | 523 | -3 | -6 |
70 | Norway | 522 | -1 | 10 |
71 | Bulgaria | 501 | -1 | -5 |
72 | Venezuela | 485 | 7 | 45 |
73 | Uzbekistan | 483 | -2 | -10 |
74 | Uganda | 478 | 2 | 14 |
75 | Togo | 466 | 0 | 1 |
76 | Jamaica | 463 | 3 | 23 |
77 | Haiti | 454 | 1 | 0 |
78 | Finland | 450 | -5 | -25 |
79 | Armenia | 437 | -5 | -33 |
80 | Paraguay | 434 | -1 | -6 |
81 | Honduras | 433 | -4 | -26 |
82 | Guatemala | 425 | 0 | -4 |
83 | China PR | 423 | -1 | -6 |
84 | Angola | 403 | 0 | 12 |
85 | Cyprus | 398 | 4 | 22 |
86 | Mozambique | 385 | 4 | 14 |
87 | Estonia | 379 | -2 | -6 |
87 | Sierra Leone | 379 | -1 | -3 |
89 | El Salvador | 378 | -2 | -3 |
89 | Morocco | 378 | -1 | 0 |
91 | Malawi | 376 | 2 | 15 |
92 | Benin | 372 | 3 | 13 |
92 | Bolivia | 372 | 0 | 10 |
94 | Lithuania | 364 | 2 | 9 |
95 | Latvia | 361 | 5 | 19 |
96 | Oman | 356 | -5 | -12 |
97 | Iraq | 353 | -3 | -7 |
98 | Belarus | 346 | 3 | 15 |
99 | Antigua and Barbuda | 340 | 0 | -4 |
100 | Saudi Arabia | 339 | -2 | -12 |
101 | Tanzania | 331 | 6 | 16 |
102 | Jordan | 326 | -5 | -27 |
103 | Ethiopia | 325 | -1 | 2 |
104 | Bahrain | 319 | -1 | -3 |
105 | Faroe Islands | 317 | 0 | 0 |
106 | Botswana | 316 | -1 | -1 |
107 | Dominican Republic | 310 | 1 | 0 |
108 | FYR Macedonia | 308 | -4 | -12 |
109 | Qatar | 300 | 0 | -5 |
109 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 300 | 1 | 0 |
111 | Cuba | 288 | 3 | 17 |
111 | Sudan | 288 | 1 | 0 |
113 | Libya | 281 | 0 | 0 |
114 | Namibia | 277 | -3 | -16 |
115 | Niger | 271 | 3 | 8 |
116 | Mauritania | 268 | 7 | 17 |
117 | Canada | 266 | 0 | 2 |
118 | Liberia | 264 | -3 | -4 |
119 | Kenya | 263 | -3 | -3 |
120 | Lesotho | 257 | 5 | 14 |
121 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 244 | -2 | -14 |
122 | Moldova | 243 | -1 | -11 |
123 | Liechtenstein | 238 | 7 | 15 |
124 | Zimbabwe | 237 | -5 | -21 |
125 | Kuwait | 231 | 3 | 0 |
126 | Burundi | 225 | -2 | -24 |
126 | Georgia | 225 | 0 | -9 |
128 | Aruba | 221 | 4 | 0 |
128 | Philippines | 221 | 4 | 0 |
130 | Vietnam | 220 | 2 | -1 |
131 | St. Lucia | 216 | 9 | 14 |
132 | Maldives | 214 | 3 | -6 |
133 | Guinea-Bissau | 211 | 5 | -1 |
133 | New Zealand | 211 | 3 | -5 |
135 | Luxembourg | 209 | -6 | -16 |
136 | Afghanistan | 203 | 8 | 22 |
137 | Kazakhstan | 199 | 2 | -4 |
138 | Azerbaijan | 198 | -7 | -24 |
139 | Palestine | 194 | -13 | -40 |
140 | Tajikistan | 192 | -3 | -23 |
141 | Barbados | 191 | 1 | 0 |
142 | Thailand | 189 | 1 | 5 |
143 | Central African Republic | 178 | 2 | 0 |
144 | Turkmenistan | 175 | 3 | 5 |
145 | Malta | 168 | 4 | 4 |
146 | Lebanon | 164 | -25 | -90 |
147 | Madagascar | 163 | 1 | -3 |
148 | Chad | 155 | -2 | -22 |
149 | Korea DPR | 149 | 3 | 5 |
150 | Kyrgyzstan | 146 | 1 | 0 |
151 | New Caledonia | 143 | 2 | 0 |
152 | Syria | 141 | -2 | -6 |
153 | Malaysia | 137 | 1 | -5 |
153 | Myanmar | 137 | -12 | -61 |
153 | Singapore | 137 | 3 | 1 |
156 | Indonesia | 129 | 2 | 1 |
157 | Hong Kong | 127 | 2 | 0 |
158 | Curaçao | 125 | 2 | 0 |
159 | Grenada | 120 | -4 | -17 |
160 | Puerto Rico | 119 | 2 | 0 |
161 | Suriname | 115 | 3 | 0 |
162 | Bangladesh | 112 | -5 | -17 |
163 | Swaziland | 106 | 2 | 3 |
164 | Belize | 100 | 3 | 0 |
164 | Tahiti | 100 | 3 | 0 |
166 | Guyana | 94 | 0 | -7 |
167 | Guam | 93 | -5 | -26 |
168 | Gambia | 90 | 1 | -5 |
169 | Laos | 88 | -8 | -35 |
169 | Pakistan | 88 | 2 | 3 |
171 | Montserrat | 86 | -1 | 0 |
172 | India | 74 | -1 | -11 |
173 | Sri Lanka | 73 | 0 | -5 |
174 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 66 | 2 | 0 |
175 | Yemen | 65 | 4 | 5 |
176 | Comoros | 64 | -2 | -11 |
177 | Seychelles | 61 | 0 | -1 |
178 | Sao Tome e Principe | 58 | -4 | -17 |
179 | Nepal | 57 | 1 | 2 |
180 | Bermuda | 55 | 0 | 0 |
180 | Cambodia | 55 | 4 | 2 |
180 | Dominica | 55 | 0 | 0 |
180 | San Marino | 55 | 0 | 0 |
184 | Solomon Islands | 53 | 0 | 0 |
185 | Nicaragua | 51 | -8 | -10 |
185 | Timor-Leste | 51 | 2 | 0 |
187 | Macau | 45 | 1 | -5 |
188 | Chinese Taipei | 43 | -4 | -10 |
188 | South Sudan | 43 | 1 | 0 |
190 | Mauritius | 36 | 0 | 0 |
191 | Vanuatu | 34 | 0 | 0 |
192 | Fiji | 30 | 0 | 0 |
192 | Samoa | 30 | 0 | 0 |
194 | Bahamas | 26 | 1 | 0 |
195 | Mongolia | 25 | -1 | -4 |
196 | Tonga | 17 | 0 | 0 |
197 | US Virgin Islands | 16 | 0 | 0 |
198 | Brunei Darussalam | 15 | 0 | 0 |
199 | Papua New Guinea | 13 | 0 | 0 |
200 | American Samoa | 12 | 0 | 0 |
201 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | -1 |
201 | British Virgin Islands | 8 | 1 | 0 |
201 | Eritrea | 8 | 1 | 0 |
204 | Somalia | 6 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Cayman Islands | 5 | 0 | 0 |
206 | Cook Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 |
206 | Djibouti | 4 | 0 | 0 |
208 | Anguilla | 2 | 0 | 0 |
209 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Afghanistan will play on March 31st against Kyrgyzstan in a friendly. If the next ranking is used for seeding of teams in AFC World Cup Qualifiers, what is the chance for Afghanistan to climb to the second pot?
ReplyDeleteAssuming that everything (and especially the first round of Asian World Cup qualifiers in March) goes according to the ELO-predictions, the predicted draw against Kyrgyzstan leaves Afghanistan with 199 points in the April ranking, at third spot in pot 3 behind India and Maldives.
DeleteIf they win they will climb to 207 points and will be first in pot 3, but the gap to Vietnam and Kuwait (last in pot 2 with 229 points) will still be considerable.
Thanks a lot, very helpful.
ReplyDeletewith our preliminary group for EURO 2016, Romania can have a better rank :D
ReplyDeleteHi Edgar, what France needs to do to be a seed instead of the Czechs
ReplyDeleteFrance has friendlies scheduled in March and June against Brazil, Denmark, Belgium and Albania. All are predicted wins except the first against Brazil which would end in a draw according to elo. If France wins that one they will overtake Croatia and climb to 10th in the UEFA ranking, but that would still be pot 2.
DeleteSo they need one of their direct opponents for pot 1 to falter: Czech Republic (EURO-qualifier win against Latvia, friendly draw against Slovakia, EURO-qualifier draw against Iceland), Italy (EURO-qualifier win against Bulgaria, friendly draw against England, EURO-qualifier draw against Croatia, friendly draw against Portugal) or Spain (EURO-qualifier win against Ukraine, friendly loss against the Netherlands, EURO-qualifier win against Belarus). All opponents have some room to improve on their elo-predictions, so France will be dependent on performances of other teams the coming months anyway.
Many thanks Ed!
ReplyDeleteEdgar, maybe you know the answer to my question. In your (and my) calculation, Antigua and Barbuda has 340 pts. in the March ranking. However, in the official FIFA ranking, they have 325 pts. I cannot find anything to justify the FIFA-points. Is this just again a mistake by FIFA or is there something else going on?
ReplyDeleteTobcoach, the friendly Antigua-US Virgin Islands (2:0, played March 8th) was incorporated in the fixtures list when the March ranking was calculated. Right afterwards this match was excluded from the fixtures list.
DeleteAh, that makes sense. To be honest, I haven't kept track of the rankings for a little while so I missed that. Thanks Ed!
DeleteThanks Ed!
Delete