2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.




As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

1	1	Algeria	953.447
2	4	Côte d'Ivoire	947.857
3	2	Ghana	876.269
4	3	Tunisia	844.292
5	5	Senegal	769.389
6	6	Cameroon	699.519
7	7	Guinea	669
8	8	Congo	652
9	10	Nigeria	625.735
10	9	Mali	616.665
11	11	Equatorial Guinea	602.07
12	13	Congo DR	576.528
13	14	Cape Verde Islands	567.632
14	16	Egypt	562.884
15	12	South Africa	549.819
16	15	Gabon	549.812
17	17	Zambia	499.677
18	18	Burkina Faso	497.809
19	19	Uganda	463.556
20	20	Togo	435.947
21	22	Angola	380.028
22	23	Morocco	378.161
23	21	Mozambique	373.58
24	25	Rwanda	366.438
25	26	Sierra Leone	328
26	24	Malawi	324.806
27	27	Ethiopia	304
28	29	Sudan	290
29	28	Niger	284.157
30	31	Benin	282
31	30	Botswana	274.837
32	33	Tanzania	249.442
33	34	Libya	233
34	36	Zimbabwe	228.443
35	32	Lesotho	225.571
36	38	Namibia	217.263
37	35	Kenya	208
38	37	Burundi	194.547
39	42	Mauritania	136.118
40	39	Guinea-Bissau	131
41	44	Madagascar	126.913
42	40	Liberia	126
43	41	Central African Republic	111
44	43	Chad	100
45	45	Swaziland	99.932
46	46	Gambia	96.61
47	50	Mauritius	88.002
48	47	Seychelles	70.345
49	48	Sao Tome e Principe	48
50	49	Comoros	37
51	51	South Sudan	24
52	52	Eritrea	8
53	53	Somalia	6
54	54	Djibouti	4

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.