2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (3 April 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 31 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.


As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Best movers:

4 - Cape Verde Islands, Kenya
3 - Gambia
2 - Gabon, Mozambique

Worst movers:

-3 - Nigeria, Congo DR
-2 - Swaziland

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

1	1	Algeria	955
2	2	Côte d'Ivoire	939
3	3	Ghana	855.942
4	4	Tunisia	838
5	5	Senegal	798
6	6	Cameroon	708
7	7	Guinea	669
8	8	Congo	652
9	13	Cape Verde Islands	616
10	11	Equatorial Guinea	604
11	10	Mali	601
12	9	Nigeria	593
13	14	Egypt	581
14	16	Gabon	568
15	12	Congo DR	560
16	15	South Africa	547.743
17	18	Burkina Faso	515
18	17	Zambia	508.718
19	19	Uganda	488
20	20	Togo	428
21	23	Mozambique	386.508
22	21	Angola	372
23	22	Morocco	354
24	24	Rwanda	347
25	25	Sierra Leone	328
26	26	Malawi	324.721
27	27	Ethiopia	304
28	28	Sudan	290
29	30	Benin	282
30	29	Niger	273
31	31	Botswana	269.449
32	32	Tanzania	242.94
33	37	Kenya	234
34	33	Libya	233
35	34	Zimbabwe	229.656
36	35	Lesotho	220.992
37	36	Namibia	217.698
38	38	Burundi	187
39	39	Mauritania	152
40	40	Guinea-Bissau	131
41	41	Madagascar	127.028
42	42	Liberia	126
43	46	Gambia	111
44	43	Central African Republic	111
45	44	Chad	100
46	47	Mauritius	99.455
47	45	Swaziland	92.21
48	48	Seychelles	66.02
49	49	Sao Tome e Principe	48
50	50	Comoros	37
51	51	South Sudan	24
52	52	Eritrea	8
53	53	Somalia	6
54	54	Djibouti	4

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.