This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).
I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.
Interesting (for me at least) to see one of the worst teams to play against has scheduled friendlies in May and June against two of the best teams to play against, one of them against the top team in the list below.
Looking to improve your FIFA ranking? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me. A word of warning - my services are not for free.
Top 20 best teams to play against after the May FIFA ranking is published:
Northern Ireland
Wales
Greece
Switzerland
Romania
Congo
Tunisia
Austria
Slovakia
Cape Verde Islands
Czech Republic
Equatorial Guinea
Faroe Islands
Algeria
Scotland
Belgium
Iceland
Portugal
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Israel
Worst teams to play against:
Canada
Libya
Kenya
Bahrain
Qatar
Moldova
Jordan
Azerbaijan
Oman
Cuba
Morocco
Bolivia
Niger
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
Lesotho
China PR
Guatemala
FYR Macedonia
Paraguay
Wales have decided not to play a friendly, I'm sure your info that it would negatively affect our rank for the WCQ played a part in this.
ReplyDeleteThe irony is that it was meant to be against NI who are top of your list but not playing them is even better than playing them. :)
I doubt this is the case. Playing a friendly match would not hurt Wales' chances for Pot 1. They'd still need a win vs Belgium, and that win would be enough for Pot 1 regardless of the friendly result.
DeleteOr should I say: "that win would VERY LIKELY be enough for Pot 1...".
DeleteI'm sure the Wales FA has been following your blog :p
ReplyDeletehttp://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/wales-among-top-seeds-world-9058298
They have Bale, no need to follow my blog :)
DeleteLooks like that team that has employed Edgar's services is not so anonymous anymore.
ReplyDeleteDid you read point 8?
DeleteHi Edgar, I was wondering how the initial number of points is established for a new entrant in the ELO Ratings...Could you please shed some light on that? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThis is a question for Kirill Bulygin. I think is based on their first result, size of the country and level of football in that country and the neigbouring countries. See Montenegro, Gibraltar and South Sudan.
DeleteIf Wales had played a friendly with Northern Ireland in June a win would have only secured them 469 points which would lower their 12 month average by 50 points. That could be the difference between becoming a Pot 1 seed or a Pot 2 seed.
ReplyDeleteIt could have made a difference only if they lost the friendly. But even then the scenario in which they win vs Belgium, lose the friendly and end up in pot 2 is very unlikely.
DeleteMeanwhile Scotland arrange a friendly against Qatar, no doubt for a handsome payment. Dearie dearie me.
ReplyDelete