FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.
11 matches left - all friendlies, although 3 of them are the final matches of the 2015 COSAFA Cup.
The top 50 is pretty much set, only Mexico and Northern Ireland having matches scheduled before the deadline.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Friday, May 22, 2015
2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)
See previous simulation results.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.
Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.
Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.
Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.
Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.
2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)
More info on the official format in the previous post.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.
Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.
Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.
Friday, May 15, 2015
2018 FIFA World Cup: A look at the AFC seeding
A bit overdue, but I've been quite busy.
Improving a team's FIFA ranking is rarely a last minute fix type of thing. As with Amplistan it involves long term planning.
Many of the AFC teams involved in the draw could have climbed to a higher pot with some planning in the year before the draw. However, I will only look at their March games.
Improving a team's FIFA ranking is rarely a last minute fix type of thing. As with Amplistan it involves long term planning.
Many of the AFC teams involved in the draw could have climbed to a higher pot with some planning in the year before the draw. However, I will only look at their March games.
May 2015: Recommended friendly impact
The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of
Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the May 2015 FIFA ranking and
we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is
computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the
given team and their recommended opponent.
The most popular opponent were Equatorial Guinea (62), followed by Northern Ireland (50) and American Samoa (31). Wales were close behind (28).
The most popular opponent were Equatorial Guinea (62), followed by Northern Ireland (50) and American Samoa (31). Wales were close behind (28).
FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable ranking
FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable results
Here are the probable results used for the June 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
FIFA Ranking: June 2015 preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.
39 matches in total - most of them in the 2015 COSAFA Cup and a World Cup qualifier: Thailand vs. Vietnam.
Besides Mexico, Ghana and Northern Ireland no other top 50 teams will be in action before the June ranking is released.
39 matches in total - most of them in the 2015 COSAFA Cup and a World Cup qualifier: Thailand vs. Vietnam.
Besides Mexico, Ghana and Northern Ireland no other top 50 teams will be in action before the June ranking is released.
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