2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.


As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Best movers:

7 - Libya
4 - Benin
3 - Nigeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Namibia and Madagascar

Worst movers:

-5 - Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania
-4 - Malawi, Mauritania
-3 - Lesotho

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

1	1	Algeria	940.506
2	2	Côte d'Ivoire	925.772
3	3	Ghana	831.388
4	4	Tunisia	790.135
5	5	Senegal	677.603
6	6	Cameroon	665.589
7	8	Congo	641.18
8	7	Guinea	612.392
9	12	Nigeria	596.86
10	13	Egypt	595.122
11	9	Cape Verde Islands	581.159
12	11	Mali	563.198
13	14	Gabon	543.6
14	15	Congo DR	530.359
15	10	Equatorial Guinea	528.459
16	16	South Africa	497.64
17	18	Zambia	487.046
18	17	Burkina Faso	483.106
19	19	Uganda	463.169
20	20	Togo	409.058
21	24	Rwanda	396.443
22	21	Mozambique	375.332
23	23	Morocco	366.938
24	22	Angola	360.744
25	29	Benin	344.842
26	25	Sierra Leone	335.747
27	34	Libya	334.264
28	28	Sudan	324.061
29	27	Ethiopia	308.116
30	26	Malawi	304.632
31	30	Niger	289.966
32	33	Kenya	277.408
33	31	Botswana	270.46
34	37	Namibia	253.176
35	35	Zimbabwe	244.354
36	38	Burundi	229.799
37	32	Tanzania	223.93
38	41	Madagascar	216.02
39	36	Lesotho	211.061
40	42	Liberia	203.141
41	40	Guinea-Bissau	186.286
42	43	Gambia	186.027
43	39	Mauritania	180.045
44	44	Central African Republic	141.711
45	47	Swaziland	132.243
46	45	Chad	116.043
47	46	Mauritius	79.294
48	48	Seychelles	60.922
49	49	Sao Tome e Principe	58.799
50	50	Comoros	52.611
51	51	South Sudan	42.95
52	54	Djibouti	11.398
53	52	Eritrea	8
54	53	Somalia	6

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.