2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy
Pot 2: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Wales, Austria, Switzerland, France, Denmark ,Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Poland, Scotland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland, Greece, Sweden, Serbia, Israel, Hungary
Pot 4: Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Finland, Armenia
Pot 5: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino, Andorra

Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Poland in Pot 2.

Best movers:

3 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
2 - Greece

Worst movers:

-3 - Poland and Serbia

Pot 6

100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
97.59% - Luxembourg
92.58% - Malta
91.27% - Liechtenstein
84.04% - Georgia
78.14% - Kazakhstan
35.18% - Moldova
18.58% - Faroe Islands
2.53% - Azerbaijan
0.05% - FYR Macedonia
0.04% - Lithuania

Pot 5

96.04% - Azerbaijan
89.89% - Cyprus
89.66% - FYR Macedonia
83.52% - Lithuania
82.53% - Latvia
82.32% - Estonia
80.42% - Belarus
72.87% - Faroe Islands
66.79% - Armenia
64.82% - Moldova
21.86% - Kazakhstan
21.74% - Finland
15.59% - Georgia
12.63% - Montenegro
8.73% - Liechtenstein
7.42% - Malta
2.41% - Luxembourg
0.44% - Bulgaria
0.32% - Norway



Pot 4

100.00% - Turkey
99.68% - Norway
99.56% - Bulgaria
85.90% - Montenegro
78.26% - Finland
58.09% - Albania
55.47% - Slovenia
47.83% - Republic of Ireland
47.44% - Israel
38.04% - Hungary
33.21% - Armenia
24.43% - Serbia
19.58% - Belarus
17.68% - Estonia
17.47% - Latvia
16.44% - Lithuania
13.58% - Northern Ireland
10.29% - FYR Macedonia
10.11% - Cyprus
8.55% - Faroe Islands
7.04% - Greece
5.70% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.43% - Sweden
1.43% - Azerbaijan
0.37% - Georgia
0.27% - Poland
0.15% - Scotland

Pot 3

95.24% - Sweden
86.55% - Greece
78.23% - Ukraine
74.28% - Scotland
70.80% - Poland
63.68% - Northern Ireland
61.70% - Hungary
59.68% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
57.29% - Iceland
55.86% - Serbia
52.06% - Republic of Ireland
41.91% - Albania
37.98% - Denmark
36.75% - Slovenia
26.43% - Israel
1.47% - Montenegro
0.09% - Austria

Pot 2

99.50% - France
96.56% - Switzerland
95.05% - Austria
73.37% - Wales
65.93% - Slovakia
65.63% - Czech Republic
62.02% - Denmark
53.41% - Italy
42.71% - Iceland
34.62% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.84% - Croatia
28.93% - Poland
26.13% - Israel
25.57% - Scotland
22.74% - Northern Ireland
21.77% - Ukraine
19.71% - Serbia
13.39% - Spain
7.78% - Slovenia
6.41% - Greece
2.08% - Portugal
1.33% - Sweden
1.15% - England
0.26% - Hungary
0.11% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
100.00% - Belgium
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Romania
98.85% - England
97.92% - Portugal
86.61% - Spain
66.16% - Croatia
46.59% - Italy
34.37% - Czech Republic
34.07% - Slovakia
26.63% - Wales
4.86% - Austria
3.44% - Switzerland
0.50% - France

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.