11 matches left - all friendlies, although 3 of them are the final matches of the 2015 COSAFA Cup.
The top 50 is pretty much set, only Mexico and Northern Ireland having matches scheduled before the deadline.
This is how the points and ranks could change for the 22 teams involved.
Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank
Mexico | 907 | 926 | 24 | 23 |
Northern Ireland | 664 | 699 | 47 | 42 |
Zambia | 517 | 533 | 68 | 63 |
Honduras | 442 | 462 | 75 | 75 |
Mozambique | 391 | 409 | 83 | 79 |
El Salvador | 371 | 394 | 90 | 81 |
Guatemala | 348 | 394 | 94 | 81 |
Qatar | 327 | 350 | 99 | 93 |
Malawi | 320 | 345 | 102 | 95 |
Oman | 313 | 329 | 103 | 96 |
Jordan | 312 | 322 | 104 | 99 |
Bahrain | 288 | 307 | 111 | 105 |
Botswana | 285 | 293 | 111 | 106 |
Namibia | 262 | 303 | 116 | 105 |
Libya | 238 | 268 | 119 | 114 |
Madagascar | 237 | 278 | 120 | 112 |
Palestine | 237 | 256 | 120 | 116 |
Lebanon | 172 | 221 | 140 | 123 |
Singapore | 126 | 136 | 159 | 153 |
Bangladesh | 116 | 141 | 165 | 150 |
Afghanistan | 112 | 138 | 167 | 151 |
Laos | 94 | 112 | 175 | 167 |
Best/worst moves etc. can be found in this post.
June 2015 rank - Team - June 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Germany | 1775 | 0 | 88 |
2 | Belgium | 1509 | 1 | 52 |
3 | Argentina | 1496 | -1 | 2 |
4 | Colombia | 1435 | 0 | 23 |
5 | Brazil | 1392 | 0 | 20 |
6 | Netherlands | 1378 | 0 | 77 |
7 | Portugal | 1229 | 0 | 8 |
8 | Uruguay | 1183 | 0 | 7 |
9 | France | 1164 | 2 | 37 |
10 | Spain | 1147 | 0 | 15 |
11 | Switzerland | 1146 | -2 | 11 |
12 | Romania | 1115 | 0 | 29 |
13 | Italy | 1101 | 0 | 16 |
14 | Costa Rica | 1056 | 1 | 40 |
15 | England | 1051 | -1 | 21 |
16 | Czech Republic | 1036 | 2 | 113 |
17 | Slovakia | 1012 | 2 | 92 |
18 | Croatia | 992 | -1 | 15 |
19 | Chile | 989 | -3 | -13 |
20 | Austria | 946 | 5 | 55 |
21 | Algeria | 941 | -1 | 24 |
22 | Wales | 929 | -1 | 13 |
23 | Côte d'Ivoire | 916 | 0 | 9 |
24 | Mexico | 907 | -2 | -1 |
25 | Greece | 899 | -1 | -1 |
26 | Russia | 833 | 1 | 5 |
27 | USA | 823 | 1 | -2 |
28 | Scotland | 818 | 2 | 22 |
29 | Denmark | 808 | 0 | 0 |
29 | Tunisia | 808 | 2 | 15 |
31 | Ecuador | 806 | 3 | 44 |
32 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 802 | 0 | 19 |
32 | Poland | 802 | 3 | 49 |
34 | Ghana | 800 | -8 | -33 |
35 | Ukraine | 784 | -2 | 12 |
36 | Senegal | 782 | 0 | 30 |
37 | Iceland | 769 | 1 | 41 |
38 | Cape Verde Islands | 746 | -1 | 9 |
39 | Sweden | 737 | 0 | 33 |
40 | Israel | 725 | 6 | 76 |
41 | Iran | 717 | -1 | 28 |
42 | Hungary | 685 | 1 | 20 |
43 | Nigeria | 681 | 2 | 22 |
44 | Guinea | 673 | -3 | -5 |
44 | Serbia | 673 | 0 | 9 |
46 | Congo | 666 | 3 | 42 |
47 | Northern Ireland | 664 | -5 | -8 |
48 | Slovenia | 653 | -1 | 5 |
49 | Cameroon | 641 | -1 | 14 |
50 | Equatorial Guinea | 635 | 11 | 86 |
51 | Albania | 624 | 6 | 49 |
52 | Japan | 623 | -2 | 9 |
52 | Mali | 623 | 4 | 45 |
54 | Panama | 597 | -1 | 10 |
55 | Egypt | 596 | -4 | -16 |
56 | Congo DR | 591 | -2 | 7 |
57 | Turkey | 590 | -5 | -13 |
58 | Korea Republic | 587 | -1 | 12 |
59 | Gabon | 583 | -4 | 0 |
60 | Republic of Ireland | 581 | 2 | 35 |
61 | Peru | 546 | 2 | 14 |
62 | Bulgaria | 537 | 5 | 32 |
63 | Australia | 532 | 1 | 1 |
64 | Norway | 528 | 6 | 37 |
65 | Jamaica | 524 | 9 | 58 |
66 | Burkina Faso | 520 | 0 | 3 |
67 | Trinidad and Tobago | 519 | -2 | 0 |
68 | Zambia | 517 | -8 | -35 |
69 | South Africa | 515 | -10 | -38 |
70 | Montenegro | 513 | 5 | 56 |
71 | Uganda | 504 | 0 | 19 |
72 | Venezuela | 497 | -3 | 2 |
73 | United Arab Emirates | 496 | -5 | -5 |
74 | Uzbekistan | 479 | -2 | 3 |
75 | Haiti | 442 | 4 | 0 |
75 | Honduras | 442 | 1 | -11 |
77 | Togo | 438 | 3 | 3 |
78 | Finland | 410 | 0 | -36 |
79 | China PR | 409 | 3 | 1 |
80 | Belarus | 400 | 3 | 3 |
81 | Mozambique | 391 | 5 | 8 |
82 | Latvia | 390 | 3 | 3 |
83 | Sierra Leone | 387 | 5 | 5 |
84 | Armenia | 383 | -7 | -66 |
85 | Paraguay | 382 | -4 | -33 |
86 | Iraq | 381 | 0 | -2 |
87 | Cyprus | 377 | 9 | 35 |
88 | Angola | 374 | 1 | -7 |
89 | Bolivia | 371 | 3 | 11 |
89 | El Salvador | 371 | -5 | -17 |
91 | Estonia | 370 | 2 | 12 |
92 | Morocco | 369 | -2 | -2 |
93 | Guatemala | 348 | -3 | -23 |
94 | Rwanda | 346 | -21 | -128 |
95 | Lithuania | 341 | 5 | 8 |
96 | Saudi Arabia | 329 | -1 | -20 |
97 | Qatar | 327 | 2 | -10 |
98 | Ethiopia | 324 | 3 | 3 |
99 | FYR Macedonia | 321 | 6 | 9 |
100 | Malawi | 320 | -3 | -21 |
101 | Faroe Islands | 318 | 1 | 0 |
102 | Antigua and Barbuda | 313 | 4 | 2 |
102 | Oman | 313 | -5 | -28 |
104 | Jordan | 312 | -1 | -4 |
105 | Cuba | 295 | 4 | -3 |
106 | Sudan | 292 | 5 | 4 |
107 | Canada | 290 | 8 | 13 |
108 | Benin | 289 | -14 | -68 |
109 | Bahrain | 288 | -1 | -11 |
110 | Botswana | 285 | -6 | -29 |
111 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 279 | -1 | -12 |
112 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 275 | 0 | -6 |
113 | Azerbaijan | 272 | 3 | 8 |
114 | Namibia | 262 | 0 | -17 |
115 | Dominican Republic | 257 | 3 | 0 |
116 | Niger | 251 | 3 | -1 |
117 | Libya | 238 | -5 | -43 |
117 | Zimbabwe | 238 | 6 | 3 |
119 | Madagascar | 237 | 31 | 81 |
119 | Palestine | 237 | 22 | 47 |
121 | Syria | 234 | 4 | 9 |
122 | Lesotho | 226 | -1 | -16 |
123 | Kenya | 220 | -6 | -38 |
124 | Moldova | 219 | -4 | -26 |
125 | Kuwait | 218 | 1 | -6 |
126 | Bermuda | 217 | 2 | 0 |
127 | Tanzania | 215 | -20 | -89 |
127 | Vietnam | 215 | -3 | -14 |
129 | Liechtenstein | 207 | -2 | -12 |
129 | Thailand | 207 | 13 | 24 |
131 | Luxembourg | 201 | 6 | 1 |
132 | Barbados | 196 | -2 | -19 |
133 | Kazakhstan | 195 | 1 | -15 |
134 | Burundi | 194 | -12 | -43 |
135 | St. Lucia | 186 | -4 | -28 |
136 | Philippines | 183 | 1 | -17 |
137 | New Zealand | 180 | 7 | 17 |
138 | Georgia | 173 | 1 | -24 |
138 | Tajikistan | 173 | 5 | 0 |
140 | Lebanon | 172 | 4 | 9 |
141 | Central African Republic | 161 | 3 | -2 |
141 | India | 161 | 6 | 0 |
143 | Myanmar | 160 | 15 | 27 |
144 | Curaçao | 159 | 4 | 0 |
145 | Malta | 154 | 4 | -4 |
146 | Korea DPR | 151 | 10 | 12 |
146 | Timor-Leste | 151 | 5 | 0 |
148 | Liberia | 149 | -16 | -63 |
149 | Mauritania | 146 | -20 | -70 |
150 | Guyana | 140 | 13 | 12 |
151 | Aruba | 138 | -15 | -66 |
151 | Nicaragua | 138 | 3 | -4 |
153 | Belize | 131 | 6 | 0 |
153 | Guinea-Bissau | 131 | -21 | -81 |
153 | Indonesia | 131 | 6 | 0 |
156 | Bhutan | 128 | 7 | 0 |
157 | Singapore | 126 | 5 | -4 |
158 | Gambia | 124 | -1 | -14 |
158 | Grenada | 124 | 13 | 11 |
160 | Malaysia | 121 | 6 | 1 |
160 | Swaziland | 121 | 16 | 24 |
162 | Hong Kong | 118 | 7 | 2 |
163 | Yemen | 117 | 5 | 0 |
164 | Bangladesh | 116 | 5 | 0 |
165 | Suriname | 115 | -10 | -26 |
166 | Puerto Rico | 114 | 1 | -5 |
167 | Afghanistan | 112 | -32 | -96 |
167 | Dominica | 112 | -2 | -9 |
169 | New Caledonia | 111 | 6 | 10 |
170 | Pakistan | 106 | 3 | 0 |
171 | US Virgin Islands | 104 | 3 | 0 |
172 | Chad | 100 | -20 | -50 |
173 | Turkmenistan | 99 | -14 | -32 |
174 | Guam | 97 | 2 | 0 |
175 | Laos | 94 | 3 | 6 |
176 | Mauritius | 90 | 9 | 25 |
177 | Kyrgyzstan | 89 | -24 | -59 |
178 | Cambodia | 86 | 1 | 0 |
178 | Chinese Taipei | 86 | 1 | 0 |
178 | Maldives | 86 | -38 | -105 |
181 | Montserrat | 74 | -9 | -33 |
182 | Tahiti | 71 | 3 | 6 |
183 | Nepal | 70 | -2 | 0 |
184 | Brunei Darussalam | 69 | -2 | 0 |
185 | Macau | 66 | -2 | 0 |
186 | Sri Lanka | 64 | 2 | 0 |
187 | Seychelles | 60 | 2 | 0 |
188 | Sao Tome e Principe | 58 | 2 | 0 |
189 | Cayman Islands | 48 | 2 | 0 |
190 | Comoros | 44 | -5 | -21 |
190 | Solomon Islands | 44 | 2 | -2 |
192 | San Marino | 40 | 2 | 0 |
193 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 33 | -10 | -33 |
194 | British Virgin Islands | 29 | 4 | 3 |
195 | Fiji | 28 | 1 | -2 |
196 | Bahamas | 26 | 2 | 0 |
197 | South Sudan | 24 | -4 | -19 |
198 | Samoa | 21 | -2 | -9 |
199 | Mongolia | 19 | 1 | 0 |
200 | Tonga | 17 | 1 | 0 |
200 | Vanuatu | 17 | -5 | -17 |
202 | Papua New Guinea | 13 | 0 | 0 |
203 | American Samoa | 12 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Eritrea | 8 | 0 | 0 |
206 | Somalia | 6 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Cook Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Djibouti | 4 | 0 | 0 |
209 | Anguilla | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Belgium had, up to now, been ranked as high as third, and yet, on all occasions, Argentina had been ranked even higher than them. Only now, moving to the second place, they finally do overtake Argentina. But has Belgium ever been above Germany? And how likely is that to happen any time soon?
ReplyDeleteBelgium has never been above Germany in the FIFA-ranking but lo and behold, if all scheduled matches go according to elo-predictions then Belgium could overtake Germany very soon. In August Belgium is 4th and Germany is 5th !
ReplyDeleteI guess the top three places will be occupied by Brazil, Argentina and Colombia (not necessarily in that order), who will are predicted to earn lots of points at the Copa América this month. But what if all three of them perform rather poorly, like what they did in the previous edition of the Copa América (2011) when none of them reached the semi-finals? Can Belgium dream of getting ranked number 1 in the world?
DeleteWell, dreaming is always allowed, I guess :)
DeleteBut, especially if Argentina does not perform conform elo-predictions (they are predicted to win the tournament on penalties against Chile, while Brazil wins the third place play-off on penalties against Colombia) Belgium could easily be catapulted to first place, because in the predicted August ranking they are hot on the heels of Colombia and Brazil already. Only Argentina has created quite some distance (200+ points).
A very first good step could be made tonight if Belgium wins against France instead of the predicted loss ! You are predicted second in August then already. Of course the Wales-qualifier remains a must-win for that to happen.
A very good movie explaining the fifa ranking system.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/hbuhSBan3Yg
only drawback: it's in Dutch.
By the way, I absolutely love the new way users have to prove they're not robots. Point all photos displaying the given type of food - lovely!
ReplyDeleteGoogle must have changed the CAPTCHA challenge. I have made no modifications.
DeleteBlatter just declared there is no fraud in FIFA, only wrong mathematics used by the entire world except for FIFA. Look at: http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html#201
ReplyDeleteAnguilla's ranking & detailled ranking: 0+0+0+0 = 2
And now they have adjusted it, but, typically, in the wrong way: June points for Anguilla is 2, not 0. Their fourth timeframe average is 1.76.
DeleteWhat on earth are they doing in Zürich at the moment ? Everybody's confused, that's for sure !
Hm, I see the ranking-points for Anguilla in the CONCACAF-filtered list (0 pts) is different from their ranking-points in the unfiltered list (2 pts). Somebody really has to check the working process of that website...
DeleteQuick question (i don't have my rankings table with me): which games in july will still count at 100% for july's ranking? by Germany's loss, i think Belgium jumps over Germany if they win in Wales. (off course, some South American national teams will probably jump over Belgium).
ReplyDeleteAccording to my calculations, Belgium are still some 20 points behind Germany, even with a win in Wales.
Deleteprobably Germany's 7-1 win still counts at 100% and isn't yet devaluated to 50%?
DeleteNope, only the final vs. Argentina counts in the 100% timeframe.
ReplyDeletejust 've seen my error: i included the Gibraltar result ;).
ReplyDelete