Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
A couple of things will happen regardless of these probable results.
- Belgium will be 2nd - best ever ranking
- Congo and Timor-Leste will improve their best ever ranking
- Vanuatu will drop to their worst ever ranking
Austria (20 - 20 in August 1999) - 15 years and 10 months
Poland (at least 33 - 29 in March 2009) - 6 years and 3 months
Slovakia (17 - 16 in September 2010) - 4 years and 9 months
China PR (at least 81 - 78 in September 2012) - 2 years and 9 months
Cayman Islands (189 - 189 in November 2012) - 2 years and 7 months
Jamaica (at least 67 - 49 in June 2013) - 2 years
Others will surely drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:
Paraguay (at most 84 - 100 in June 1995) - 20 years
Turkmenistan (at most 171 - 174 in September 2007) - 7 years and 9 months
Libya (at most 117 - 118 in November 2009) - 5 years and 7 months
Liberia (at most 145 - 157 in May 2011) - 4 years and 1 month
Samoa (198 - 204 in November 2011) - 3 years and 7 months
Maldives (at most 175 - 175 in February 2012) - 3 years and 4 months
Afghanistan (at most 164 - 189 in February 2013) - 2 years and 4 months
Kyrgyzstan (at most 174 - 201 in March 2013) - 2 years and 3 months
Ukraine (35 - 39 in June 2013) - 2 years
Armenia (at most 83 - 89 in June 2013) - 2 years
Oman (at most 100 - 101 in June 2013) - 2 years
Belgium will be ranked above Argentina for the first time ever.
Austria will be ranked above Mexico for the first time ever.
Congo will be ranked above Cameroon for the first time ever.
Belarus will be ranked above Paraguay for the first time ever.
Bhutan and Timor-Leste will be ranked above Maldives for the first time ever.
China PR will be ranked above Paraguay for the first time in the last 18 years and 11 months.
Slovakia will be ranked above Croatia for the first time in the last 17 years and 9 months.
Pakistan will be ranked above Maldives for the first time in the last 16 years and 7 months.
Slovakia will be ranked above Chile for the first time in the last 7 years and 9 months.
Probable June 2015 rank - Team - Probable June 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Germany | 1775 | 0 | 88 |
2 | Belgium | 1509 | 1 | 52 |
3 | Argentina | 1496 | -1 | 2 |
4 | Colombia | 1435 | 0 | 23 |
5 | Brazil | 1392 | 0 | 20 |
6 | Netherlands | 1378 | 0 | 77 |
7 | Portugal | 1229 | 0 | 8 |
8 | Uruguay | 1183 | 0 | 7 |
9 | France | 1164 | 2 | 37 |
10 | Spain | 1147 | 0 | 15 |
11 | Switzerland | 1146 | -2 | 11 |
12 | Romania | 1115 | 0 | 29 |
13 | Italy | 1101 | 0 | 16 |
14 | Costa Rica | 1056 | 1 | 40 |
15 | England | 1051 | -1 | 21 |
16 | Czech Republic | 1036 | 2 | 113 |
17 | Slovakia | 1012 | 2 | 92 |
18 | Croatia | 992 | -1 | 15 |
19 | Chile | 989 | -3 | -13 |
20 | Austria | 946 | 5 | 55 |
21 | Algeria | 941 | -1 | 24 |
22 | Wales | 929 | -1 | 13 |
23 | Mexico | 926 | -1 | 18 |
24 | Côte d'Ivoire | 916 | -1 | 9 |
25 | Greece | 899 | -1 | -1 |
26 | Russia | 833 | 1 | 5 |
27 | USA | 823 | 1 | -2 |
28 | Ghana | 818 | -2 | -15 |
28 | Scotland | 818 | 2 | 22 |
30 | Denmark | 808 | -1 | 0 |
30 | Tunisia | 808 | 1 | 15 |
32 | Ecuador | 806 | 2 | 44 |
33 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 802 | -1 | 19 |
33 | Poland | 802 | 2 | 49 |
35 | Ukraine | 784 | -2 | 12 |
36 | Senegal | 782 | 0 | 30 |
37 | Iceland | 769 | 1 | 41 |
38 | Cape Verde Islands | 746 | -1 | 9 |
39 | Sweden | 737 | 0 | 33 |
40 | Israel | 725 | 6 | 76 |
41 | Iran | 717 | -1 | 28 |
42 | Hungary | 685 | 1 | 20 |
43 | Nigeria | 681 | 2 | 22 |
44 | Northern Ireland | 676 | -2 | 4 |
45 | Guinea | 673 | -4 | -5 |
45 | Serbia | 673 | -1 | 9 |
47 | Congo | 666 | 2 | 42 |
48 | Slovenia | 653 | -1 | 5 |
49 | Cameroon | 641 | -1 | 14 |
50 | Equatorial Guinea | 635 | 11 | 86 |
51 | Albania | 624 | 6 | 49 |
52 | Japan | 623 | -2 | 9 |
52 | Mali | 623 | 4 | 45 |
54 | Panama | 597 | -1 | 10 |
55 | Egypt | 592 | -4 | -20 |
56 | Congo DR | 591 | -2 | 7 |
57 | Turkey | 590 | -5 | -13 |
58 | Korea Republic | 587 | -1 | 12 |
59 | Gabon | 583 | -4 | 0 |
60 | Republic of Ireland | 581 | 2 | 35 |
61 | Peru | 546 | 2 | 14 |
62 | Bulgaria | 537 | 5 | 32 |
63 | South Africa | 533 | -4 | -20 |
64 | Australia | 532 | 0 | 1 |
65 | Norway | 528 | 5 | 37 |
66 | Jamaica | 524 | 8 | 58 |
67 | Burkina Faso | 520 | -1 | 3 |
68 | Trinidad and Tobago | 519 | -3 | 0 |
69 | Zambia | 515 | -9 | -37 |
70 | Montenegro | 513 | 5 | 56 |
71 | Uganda | 504 | 0 | 19 |
72 | United Arab Emirates | 496 | -4 | -5 |
73 | Venezuela | 493 | -4 | -2 |
74 | Uzbekistan | 479 | -2 | 3 |
75 | Honduras | 449 | 1 | -4 |
76 | Haiti | 442 | 3 | 0 |
77 | Togo | 438 | 3 | 3 |
78 | Finland | 410 | 0 | -36 |
79 | China PR | 409 | 3 | 1 |
80 | Belarus | 400 | 3 | 3 |
81 | Latvia | 390 | 4 | 3 |
82 | Sierra Leone | 387 | 6 | 5 |
83 | Armenia | 383 | -6 | -66 |
84 | Paraguay | 382 | -3 | -33 |
85 | Iraq | 381 | 1 | -2 |
86 | El Salvador | 379 | -2 | -9 |
87 | Cyprus | 377 | 9 | 35 |
88 | Bolivia | 375 | 4 | 15 |
89 | Angola | 374 | 0 | -7 |
90 | Mozambique | 370 | -4 | -13 |
90 | Estonia | 370 | 3 | 12 |
92 | Morocco | 369 | -2 | -2 |
93 | Guatemala | 348 | -3 | -23 |
94 | Rwanda | 346 | -21 | -128 |
95 | Lithuania | 341 | 5 | 8 |
96 | Qatar | 334 | 3 | -3 |
97 | Saudi Arabia | 329 | -2 | -20 |
98 | Ethiopia | 324 | 3 | 3 |
99 | Jordan | 322 | 4 | 6 |
100 | FYR Macedonia | 321 | 5 | 9 |
101 | Oman | 319 | -4 | -22 |
102 | Faroe Islands | 318 | 0 | 0 |
103 | Antigua and Barbuda | 313 | 3 | 2 |
104 | Malawi | 305 | -7 | -36 |
105 | Bahrain | 299 | 3 | 0 |
106 | Cuba | 295 | 3 | -3 |
107 | Sudan | 292 | 4 | 4 |
108 | Canada | 290 | 7 | 13 |
109 | Benin | 289 | -15 | -68 |
110 | Botswana | 282 | -6 | -32 |
111 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 279 | -1 | -12 |
112 | Zimbabwe | 278 | 11 | 43 |
113 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 275 | -1 | -6 |
114 | Azerbaijan | 272 | 2 | 8 |
115 | Dominican Republic | 256 | 3 | -1 |
116 | Niger | 251 | 3 | -1 |
117 | Tanzania | 249 | -10 | -55 |
118 | Palestine | 242 | 23 | 52 |
119 | Libya | 238 | -7 | -43 |
120 | Syria | 234 | 5 | 9 |
121 | Kenya | 220 | -4 | -38 |
122 | Moldova | 219 | -2 | -26 |
123 | Kuwait | 218 | 3 | -6 |
124 | Bermuda | 217 | 4 | 0 |
125 | Lesotho | 214 | -4 | -28 |
126 | Namibia | 211 | -12 | -68 |
126 | Vietnam | 211 | -2 | -18 |
128 | Thailand | 210 | 14 | 27 |
129 | Liechtenstein | 207 | -2 | -12 |
130 | Luxembourg | 201 | 7 | 1 |
131 | Barbados | 196 | -1 | -19 |
132 | Kazakhstan | 195 | 2 | -15 |
133 | Burundi | 194 | -11 | -43 |
134 | St. Lucia | 190 | -3 | -24 |
135 | Philippines | 183 | 2 | -17 |
136 | New Zealand | 180 | 8 | 17 |
137 | Georgia | 173 | 2 | -24 |
137 | Tajikistan | 173 | 6 | 0 |
139 | Lebanon | 172 | 5 | 9 |
140 | Central African Republic | 161 | 4 | -2 |
140 | India | 161 | 7 | 0 |
142 | Myanmar | 160 | 16 | 27 |
143 | Malta | 154 | 6 | -4 |
143 | Korea DPR | 154 | 13 | 15 |
145 | Timor-Leste | 151 | 6 | 0 |
146 | Liberia | 149 | -14 | -63 |
147 | Curaçao | 148 | 1 | -11 |
148 | Mauritania | 146 | -19 | -70 |
149 | Guyana | 140 | 14 | 12 |
150 | Aruba | 138 | -14 | -66 |
150 | Nicaragua | 138 | 4 | -4 |
152 | Guinea-Bissau | 131 | -20 | -81 |
152 | Belize | 131 | 7 | 0 |
152 | Indonesia | 131 | 7 | 0 |
155 | Singapore | 130 | 7 | 0 |
156 | Bhutan | 128 | 7 | 0 |
157 | Gambia | 124 | 0 | -14 |
157 | Bangladesh | 124 | 12 | 8 |
157 | Suriname | 124 | -2 | -17 |
160 | Malaysia | 121 | 6 | 1 |
161 | Hong Kong | 118 | 8 | 2 |
162 | Yemen | 117 | 6 | 0 |
163 | Puerto Rico | 114 | 4 | -5 |
164 | Afghanistan | 112 | -29 | -96 |
164 | Dominica | 112 | 1 | -9 |
166 | New Caledonia | 111 | 9 | 10 |
167 | Grenada | 109 | 4 | -4 |
168 | Pakistan | 106 | 5 | 0 |
169 | Madagascar | 105 | -19 | -51 |
170 | US Virgin Islands | 104 | 4 | 0 |
171 | Chad | 100 | -19 | -50 |
172 | Turkmenistan | 99 | -13 | -32 |
172 | Laos | 99 | 6 | 11 |
174 | Guam | 97 | 2 | 0 |
175 | Kyrgyzstan | 89 | -22 | -59 |
176 | Maldives | 86 | -36 | -105 |
176 | Cambodia | 86 | 3 | 0 |
176 | Chinese Taipei | 86 | 3 | 0 |
179 | Montserrat | 74 | -7 | -33 |
180 | Mauritius | 73 | 5 | 8 |
181 | Tahiti | 71 | 4 | 6 |
182 | Nepal | 70 | -1 | 0 |
183 | Brunei Darussalam | 69 | -1 | 0 |
184 | Swaziland | 67 | -8 | -30 |
185 | Macau | 66 | -2 | 0 |
186 | Sri Lanka | 64 | 2 | 0 |
187 | Sao Tome e Principe | 58 | 3 | 0 |
188 | Seychelles | 56 | 1 | -4 |
189 | Cayman Islands | 48 | 2 | 0 |
190 | Comoros | 44 | -5 | -21 |
190 | Solomon Islands | 44 | 2 | -2 |
192 | San Marino | 40 | 2 | 0 |
193 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 33 | -10 | -33 |
194 | British Virgin Islands | 29 | 4 | 3 |
195 | Fiji | 28 | 1 | -2 |
196 | Bahamas | 26 | 2 | 0 |
197 | South Sudan | 24 | -4 | -19 |
198 | Samoa | 21 | -2 | -9 |
199 | Mongolia | 19 | 1 | 0 |
200 | Vanuatu | 17 | -5 | -17 |
200 | Tonga | 17 | 1 | 0 |
202 | Papua New Guinea | 13 | 0 | 0 |
203 | American Samoa | 12 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | 0 |
204 | Eritrea | 8 | 0 | 0 |
206 | Somalia | 6 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Cook Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Djibouti | 4 | 0 | 0 |
209 | Anguilla | 2 | 0 | 0 |
What would happen if Colombia beats Costa Rica on June 6th ?
ReplyDeleteI think Colombia's performance in the Copa America has much more influence regarding their position in the July ranking than the result of this friendly.
ReplyDeleteCan you please tell me what happens for Mauritius as it has won 1-0 against Seychelles in the COSAFA
ReplyDeleteMauritius 1-0 Seychelles , Mauritius 0-2 Namibia , Mauritius 0-2 Zimbabwe..
ReplyDeleteCOSAFA finished today .. what happens to the rankings please
Ed, if Portugal ties with Armenia, what we need to stay in Pot 1 for 2018?
ReplyDeleteWell, it would get tight. With a draw against Armenia and the predicted draw in the Italy-friendly you would be UEFA 7th, assuming the rest of the qualifiers goes according to elo-predictions. With a loss in the friendly you would be overtaken by Italy and Portugal would be UEFA 8th with absolutely no room to spare to the teams behind you. Especially Wales could become dangerous then, because their qualfier against Belgium is predicted as a loss, so for them there's lots of room to improve on their predicted points.
ReplyDeleteIf Portugal fulfills the expectations and defeats Armenia, you are save for the first pot.
It is probable that I miss something, but I have not readed yet any official news about Fifa ranking and the Copa America 2016, the special edition for the centenary that will involve 16 teams from Comnebol and Concacaf (nice idea this competition in my opinion).
ReplyDeleteIt will be considered as a "normal" continental competition, with a multiplier factor of 3.0 and the same status of the Copa America 2015? I think yes, but I have not found any official news about it.
If the responsive will be positive,this will be an impact for Comnebol and Concacaf teams in the ranking, in my opinion, because in some case they will have four consecutive years with main competitions played (the first time it happens, I think).
i.e. Brazil eventually will have WC in 2014, Copa America in both 2015 and 2016, confederation cup in 2017 if they win the Copa America 2015.
USA and Mexico may have Gold Cup in 2015 and 2017, Copa America Centenario in 2016, Confederation Cup (for one of them) in 2017, and World Cup in 2018, so five main competition in four years!
This can be eventually discussed as a possible flaw of the ranking, because, I think, is undeniable that best teams from these confederations will take advantage from this situation respect other continents (Europe, Asia and Oceania in particular).
It will definitely give the top teams in CONMEBOL and CONCACAF an extra boost in the ranking if the Copa Centenario is treated as a continental final (which is also my expectation). Although it is a one-time tournament I expect there will be some impact on the seeding in pot 1 for the World Cup 2018 finals. Otherwise the ranking is not used for interconfederational draws.
DeleteSo yes, we will have more top-teams from the Americas high(er) in the ranking the next years, but otherwise the direct influence of this tournament will be limited to the mentioned draw.
In this regard, I'm also curious how the UEFA Nations League matches (starting autumn 2018) will be treated for the ranking.
yes, it is true, from that moment on, the great advantage will pass on the european teams side, because they will have no more friedlies (or next to nothing).
DeleteTheorically, since the competition assign places for Euro2020, the 2,5 factor will be used, taking into consideration for the same reason the old AFC Challenge Cup passed from 1,0 to 2,5.
Here's an overview of the elo-predicted UEFA July ranking, used for the World Cup UEFA-qualification draw. Also is given: for each UEFA team the minimum and maximum points in July and the currently scheduled matches in May/June with in parentheses the minimum points with a win against each team. Note that Russia will be host and that Gibraltar is no FIFA-member (although the FIFA-meeting this week might have something to say about that).
ReplyDeletenr team elo min. max.; program June (min. points with win)
01 GER 1464 1411 1464; f USA (1464) - Q GIB
02 BEL 1328 1181 1391; f FRA (1244) - Q WAL (1328)
03 ROU 1277 1111 1277; Q NIR
04 NED 1245 1131 1245; f USA (1171) - Q LVA (1205)
05 ENG 1185 1030 1185; f IRL (1072) - Q SVN (1143)
06 POR 1137 1020 1178; Q ARM (1116) - f ITA (1081)
07 ESP 1110 0970 1110; f CRC (1021) - Q BLR (1059)
08 CRO 1023 0965 1138; f GIB - Q ITA (1138)
09 ITA 1020 0956 1148; Q CRO (1091) - f POR (1013)
------
10 SVK 1016 0934 1016; Q MKD
11 SUI 0998 0888 0998; f LIE (912) - Q LTU (975)
12 FRA 0985 0882 0985; f BEL (941) - f ALB (926)
13 CZE 0983 0933 1084; Q ISL
14 WAL 0910 0910 1155; Q BEL
15 DEN 0876 0722 0876; f MNE (761) - Q SRB (837)
16 AUT 0854 0854 1016; Q RUS
17 POL 0819 0679 0819; Q GEO (745) - f GRE (754)
18 BIH 0819 0670 0819; Q ISR
------
19 UKR 0792 0721 0792; f GEO (740) - Q LUX (773)
20 ISL 0786 0740 0877; Q CZE
21 SWE 0753 0652 0777; f NOR (689) - Q MNE (740)
22 SCO 0731 0695 0861; f QAT (731) - Q IRL (825)
23 GRE 0731 0640 0793; Q FRO (731) - f POL (702)
24 IRL 0691 0532 0760; f ENG (600) - Q SCO (691)
25 HUN 0688 0612 0764; f LTU (651) - Q FIN (725)
26 NIR 0663 0652 0861; f QAT (686) - Q ROU (826)
27 SRB 0662 0630 0820; f AZE (662) - Q DEN (788)
------
28 ALB 0641 0641 0722; f FRA
29 SVN 0626 0626 0797; Q ENG
30 ISR 0620 0620 0826; Q BIH
31 TUR 0614 0558 0614; Q KAZ
32 NOR 0538 0458 0570; f SWE (506) - Q AZE (522)
33 BUL 0535 0467 0535; Q MLT
34 FIN 0460 0371 0558; f EST (412) - Q HUN (518)
35 MNE 0423 0423 0666; f DEN (495) - Q SWE (594)
36 CYP 0391 0338 0391; Q AND
------
37 EST 0390 0359 0420; f FIN (389) - Q SMR (390)
38 LVA 0377 0377 0557; Q NED
39 ARM 0373 0373 0578; Q POR
40 MKD 0351 0299 0520; f EQG (351) - Q SVK (469)
41 BLR 0341 0341 0534; f RUS (393) - Q ESP (482)
42 LTU 0317 0301 0505; f HUN (348) - f MLT (317) - Q SUI (441)
43 MDA 0276 0209 0291; f LUX (232) - Q LIE (268)
44 AZE 0264 0264 0428; f SRB (315) - Q NOR (377)
45 FRO 0239 0239 0456; Q GRE
------
46 LUX 0187 0178 0359; f MDA (206) - Q UKR (331)
47 KAZ 0185 0185 0311; Q TUR (274) - f CPV (222)
48 GEO 0165 0165 0413; f UKR (235) - Q POL (343)
49 LIE 0161 0161 0287; f SUI (223) - Q MDA (224)
50 MLT 0123 0123 0271; f LTU (157) - Q BUL (237)
51 SMR 0040 0040 0155; Q EST
52 AND 0009 0009 0186; f EQG (68) - Q CYP (127)