2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 June 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

Per scenario sims can be found here.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy
Pot 2: Slovakia, Czech Republic, Wales, Switzerland, Austria, France, Denmark, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Scotland, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland, Greece, Sweden, Serbia, Israel, Hungary
Pot 4: Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Finland, Armenia
Pot 5: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino, Andorra

No changes.

Pot 6

100.00% - San Marino
100.00% - Andorra
97.49% - Luxembourg
92.24% - Malta
91.68% - Liechtenstein
83.90% - Georgia
78.06% - Kazakhstan
35.54% - Moldova
18.57% - Faroe Islands
2.45% - Azerbaijan
0.04% - FYR Macedonia
0.03% - Lithuania

Pot 5

95.88% - Azerbaijan
91.74% - FYR Macedonia
88.96% - Cyprus
83.73% - Lithuania
82.40% - Latvia
81.14% - Estonia
80.21% - Belarus
72.43% - Faroe Islands
66.46% - Armenia
64.46% - Moldova
21.94% - Kazakhstan
21.38% - Finland
15.80% - Georgia
12.19% - Montenegro
8.32% - Liechtenstein
7.76% - Malta
2.51% - Luxembourg
2.37% - Bulgaria
0.31% - Norway
0.01% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 4

99.69% - Norway
99.41% - Turkey
97.63% - Bulgaria
86.52% - Montenegro
78.62% - Finland
57.62% - Albania
55.02% - Slovenia
49.46% - Republic of Ireland
47.59% - Israel
37.97% - Hungary
33.54% - Armenia
25.85% - Serbia
19.79% - Belarus
18.86% - Estonia
17.60% - Latvia
16.24% - Lithuania
12.79% - Northern Ireland
11.04% - Cyprus
9.00% - Faroe Islands
8.22% - FYR Macedonia
7.25% - Greece
4.69% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.24% - Sweden
1.67% - Azerbaijan
0.30% - Georgia
0.21% - Poland
0.18% - Scotland

Pot 3

95.40% - Sweden
85.59% - Greece
79.83% - Ukraine
75.13% - Poland
73.81% - Scotland
63.04% - Northern Ireland
61.91% - Hungary
57.65% - Iceland
57.05% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
54.48% - Serbia
50.48% - Republic of Ireland
42.38% - Albania
37.39% - Denmark
36.89% - Slovenia
27.09% - Israel
1.29% - Montenegro
0.59% - Turkey

Pot 2

99.31% - France
96.85% - Austria
95.84% - Switzerland
72.97% - Wales
65.55% - Czech Republic
64.85% - Slovakia
62.61% - Denmark
54.53% - Italy
42.35% - Iceland
38.26% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.93% - Croatia
26.01% - Scotland
25.32% - Israel
24.66% - Poland
24.17% - Northern Ireland
20.17% - Ukraine
19.67% - Serbia
12.64% - Spain
8.09% - Slovenia
7.16% - Greece
1.95% - Portugal
1.58% - England
1.36% - Sweden
0.12% - Hungary
0.05% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
100.00% - Belgium
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Romania
98.42% - England
98.05% - Portugal
87.36% - Spain
66.07% - Croatia
45.47% - Italy
35.15% - Slovakia
34.45% - Czech Republic
27.03% - Wales
4.16% - Switzerland
3.15% - Austria
0.69% - France

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.