As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
30.43% - Group H
25.60% - Group C
14.24% - Group F
12.56% - Group I
8.42% - Group G
2.72% - Group A
2.15% - Group E
2.14% - Group D
1.74% - Group B
Top 10 most likely best 3rd team:
24.13% - Ukraine
17.09% - Norway
12.14% - Croatia
10.25% - Hungary
8.10% - Denmark
4.77% - Russia
3.72% - Albania
3.35% - Sweden
2.72% - Turkey
2.63% - Northern Ireland
Top 10 most likely to be involved in play-offs:
95.96% - Slovenia
75.60% - Sweden
61.54% - Israel
57.31% - Netherlands
56.89% - Republic of Ireland
56.77% - Denmark
54.91% - Ukraine
54.35% - Hungary
44.59% - Norway
40.01% - Turkey
Top 10 most likely to be seeded in the play-offs:
72.05% - Sweden
57.31% - Netherlands
54.50% - Ukraine
39.49% - Hungary
36.03% - Croatia
35.68% - Denmark
34.55% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
16.08% - Russia
13.43% - Norway
9.56% - Republic of Ireland
Top 10 most likely to qualify through play-offs:
47.65% - Netherlands
44.64% - Sweden
36.41% - Ukraine
32.31% - Slovenia
31.84% - Denmark
27.13% - Republic of Ireland
24.67% - Hungary
23.02% - Turkey
22.67% - Croatia
20.49% - Israel
Qualification chances:
100.00% - Iceland
100.00% - Czech Republic
100.00% - Austria
100.00% - England
100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Spain
99.98% - Wales
99.79% - Belgium
99.78% - Portugal
98.90% - Slovakia
98.76% - Italy
98.68% - Switzerland
98.09% - Romania
90.54% - Russia
90.29% - Poland
90.27% - Northern Ireland
85.86% - Croatia
81.50% - Ukraine
75.07% - Denmark
73.69% - Albania
73.21% - Norway
67.41% - Hungary
66.60% - Sweden
47.65% - Netherlands
44.76% - Republic of Ireland
35.88% - Slovenia
25.70% - Turkey
21.67% - Israel
20.41% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.32% - Scotland
2.52% - Montenegro
1.08% - Finland
0.51% - Cyprus
0.07% - Estonia
0.02% - Lithuania
Final tournament draw
Pot 4
99.91% - Wales
90.27% - Northern Ireland
86.44% - Iceland
73.69% - Albania
52.65% - Norway
33.85% - Slovenia
28.68% - Republic of Ireland
21.70% - Denmark
20.76% - Israel
20.11% - Turkey
18.96% - Poland
15.50% - Slovakia
13.87% - Hungary
11.32% - Scotland
6.76% - Romania
2.48% - Montenegro
1.21% - Sweden
1.08% - Finland
0.51% - Cyprus
0.12% - Czech Republic
0.07% - Estonia
0.03% - Ukraine
0.02% - Lithuania
0.01% - Croatia
Pot 3
88.92% - Romania
82.82% - Slovakia
72.90% - Czech Republic
63.09% - Poland
58.46% - Sweden
53.28% - Hungary
52.68% - Denmark
20.56% - Norway
18.25% - Croatia
18.06% - Austria
16.08% - Republic of Ireland
14.35% - Ukraine
13.56% - Iceland
7.12% - Russia
6.31% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
5.59% - Turkey
4.92% - Switzerland
2.03% - Slovenia
0.91% - Israel
0.07% - Wales
0.04% - Montenegro
Pot 2
93.76% - Switzerland
83.42% - Russia
81.94% - Austria
67.60% - Croatia
67.12% - Ukraine
59.96% - Italy
50.92% - Portugal
27.32% - Belgium
26.98% - Czech Republic
14.10% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
8.24% - Poland
6.96% - Netherlands
6.93% - Sweden
2.41% - Romania
0.81% - England
0.69% - Denmark
0.58% - Slovakia
0.26% - Hungary
Pot 1
100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Spain
99.19% - England
72.47% - Belgium
48.86% - Portugal
40.69% - Netherlands
38.80% - Italy
Taking the top 23 based on qualification chances, these would be the pots:
Pot 1: France, Spain, Germany, England, Belgium, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Switzerland, Russia, Austria, Croatia, Ukraine
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Sweden, Hungary
Pot 4: Iceland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Albania, Norway
Edgar, thank you for update.
ReplyDeleteCould you please write expectations in % (w1-x-w2) for remaining games in group C (except Belarus - FYR Macedonia) that are used in simulations. Just wondering how it is appeared that Ukraine still have 21,04% for occupying position above 3rd (100% - 24,13% for best 3rd - 54.91% for involving in play-offs). Even if Ukraine win both their games they need help from Luxembourg to overcome Slovakia or Spain.
Here is the list of matches:
Macedonia-Ukraine
Spain-Luxembourg
Slovakia-Belarus
Ukraine-Spain
Luxembourg-Slovakia
UEFA NT-ranking after MD9 of the EURO-qualifiers and the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers for MD10. Indicated are the group spots after EURO-qualifying (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on October 2015 NT-coeff). Please keep in mind that the elo-predictions I use are only 1:0, 0:0 or 0:1. As the scored goals do count in the NT-coefficient, this is only a realistic indication of the resulting coefficient. This ranking is used as seeding ranking for the play-offs (4 top seeds in pot 1; 4 lower seeds in pot 2) and for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain are always seeded in pot 1:
ReplyDelete33,599 France -
37,142 Spain Q1
40,236 Germany Q1
35,923 England Q1
34,422 Belgium Q1
34,345 Italy Q1
--
34,113 Portugal Q1
31,325 Russia Q2
31,254 Switzerland Q2
30,895 Ukraine q1 (grp C)
30,892 Austria Q1
30,642 Croatia Q2
--
30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q2 (grp B)
29,008 Sweden q3 (grp G)
28,306 Poland Q2
28,163 Czech Republic Q2
27,998 Romania Q1
27,562 Hungary Qq (grp F)
--
27,151 Slovakia Q2
27,140 Denmark Q2
27,033 Turkey q4 (grp A)
25,388 Iceland Q1
24,501 Wales Q2
22,541 Northern Ireland Q2
============================
nrs 3 to play-offs (seeds 1-4 to qualify):
30,895 Ukraine q1 (grp C)
30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q2 (grp B)
29,008 Sweden q3 (grp G)
27,033 Turkey q4 (grp A)
26,902 Republic of Ireland q5 (grp D)
26,439 Norway q6 (grp H)
25,421 Slovenia q7 (grp E)
20,491 Albania q8 (grp I)
============================
rest:
34,919 Netherlands
25,834 Greece
24,301 Serbia
24,182 Israel
23,159 Scotland
22,991 Montenegro
22,001 Finland
20,746 Bulgaria
20,051 Armenia
19,486 Belarus
19,429 Estonia
19,318 Lithuania
18,151 Latvia
17,786 Georgia
16,961 Azerbaijan
16,898 Cyprus
16,641 Moldova
15,101 FYR Macedonia
13,840 Luxembourg
12,861 Kazakhstan
12,765 Liechtenstein
12,721 Faroe Islands
11,310 Malta
8,540 Andorra
8,130 San Marino
7,550 Gibraltar
Elo predicts for the last matchday:
Germany - Georgia 1
Gibraltar - Scotland 2
Poland - Republic of Ireland 1
Faroe Islands - Romania 2
Finland - Northern Ireland 1
Greece - Hungary X
Armenia - Albania X
Serbia - Portugal X
Belarus - FYR Macedonia 1
Luxembourg - Slovakia 2
Ukraine - Spain X
Estonia - Switzerland 2
Lithuania - England 2
San Marino - Slovenia 2
Austria - Liechtenstein 1
Russia - Montenegro 1
Sweden - Moldova 1
Latvia - Kazakhstan 1
Netherlands - Czech Republic 1
Turkey - Iceland 1
Belgium - Israel 1
Cyprus - Bosnia-Herzegovina 2
Wales - Andorra 1
Bulgaria - Azerbaijan 1
Italy - Norway 1
Malta - Croatia 2
if Ukraine qualify for the EURO, will their playoff matches be included for the 2012 cycle where they had no qualifiers (host)?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteOf course. That's why they'll need 3-4 points to overtake Bosnia and 6 points to overtake Croatia (provided they both win today). If Netherlands don't qualify, they'll need to pass one of them for pot 2. If Netherlands do qualify, they'll need to overtake both of them.
DeleteThe only doubt I have is will the bonus points for the play-offs be counted as if the play-offs had taken place in 2011 (thus 6,000 points per match) or will they use current bonus points (4,000 per match). Very interesting situation, and the decision could impact the number of points Ukraine need.
DeleteWell, as the current qualification is also used as the first cycle for Ukraine and Poland, I think the save assumption is that the current bonus will be applied.
ReplyDeleteBut then why should Ukraine be disadvantaged by receiving less bonus points than all other teams in the cycle 1? It's not their fault they haven't played in the EURO 2012 qualifiers. I don't know, tough situation...
DeleteIn cycle 1 the opponent was one of the best 8 second placed teams, now it is one of the worst 8 third placed Teams - this is the reason why the bonus was reduced and it would make absolutely no sense to give the higher bonus points for cycle 1...
DeleteUEFA doesn't apply new rules to adjust old match-results, but in this case the new match-results are used to calculate the missing cycle 1 for Ukraine and Poland. It is the consequence of art. B3b in the EURO 2016 regulations that the current bonus will be used:
ReplyDeleteIn the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.
This also means that the final October UEFA NT-coefficient ranking, used for the draw of the playoffs and the finals, will not be final for Ukraine until after the play-offs ?
ReplyDeleteI can hardly imagine the UEFA explaining that to the audience :)
The final October UEFA NT-ranking after the EURO-qualifiers (although 'final', see discussion above). Indicated are the group spots (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on NT-coeff). This ranking is used as seeding ranking for the play-offs (4 top seeds in pot 1; 4 lower seeds in pot 2) and for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain are always seeded in pot 1:
ReplyDelete33,599 France -
37,962 Spain Q1
40,236 Germany Q1
35,963 England Q1
35,138 Portugal Q1
34,442 Belgium Q1
--
34,345 Italy Q1
31,345 Russia Q2
31,254 Switzerland Q2
30,932 Austria Q1
30,642 Croatia Q2
30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q1 (grp B)
--
30,313 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
29,403 Czech Republic Q2
29,028 Sweden q3 (grp G)
28,306 Poland Q2
28,038 Romania Q2
27,171 Slovakia Q2
--
27,142 Hungary Q4 (grp F)
27,033 Turkey Qq (grp A)
25,388 Iceland Q1
24,521 Wales Q2
23,216 Albania Q2
22,961 Northern Ireland Q1
============================
nrs 3 to play-offs (seeds 1-4 to qualify):
30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q1 (grp B)
30,313 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
29,028 Sweden q3 (grp G)
27,142 Hungary q4 (grp F)
27,140 Denmark q5 (grp I)
26,902 Republic of Ireland q6 (grp D)
26,439 Norway q7 (grp H)
25,441 Slovenia q8 (grp E)
============================
rest:
33,679 Netherlands
26,654 Greece
24,162 Israel
23,259 Scotland
22,971 Montenegro
22,127 Serbia
21,181 Finland
20,766 Bulgaria
19,476 Armenia
19,429 Estonia
19,278 Lithuania
18,666 Belarus
17,786 Georgia
16,941 Azerbaijan
16,911 Latvia
16,898 Cyprus
16,621 Moldova
15,521 FYR Macedonia
14,101 Kazakhstan
13,821 Luxembourg
12,725 Liechtenstein
12,681 Faroe Islands
11,310 Malta
8,520 Andorra
8,110 San Marino
7,300 Gibraltar
Congratulations and well done to all EURO-participants. Turkey snatched with a last gasp goal against Iceland the best third place from Hungary and pushed at the same time Denmark to the unseeded teams in the play-offs. Hungary has 0.002 points more than them.
What an utter disgrace for the Netherlands, after their third spot at the last World Cup with much the same team. Right now, there is only very mediocre quality behind Robben, Sneijder and Van Persie.
It looks like UEFA will go against their own regulations and completely disregard the play-offs for the Cycle 1! Look at this article: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2293579.html?rss=2293579+Germany+England,+Portugal,+Belgium+top+seeded
ReplyDeleteYeah, UEFA tries to keep it simple and ingores their own regulations with regard to the Ukraine play-offs.
ReplyDeletehm Ed, always read your post first, correct typos and then press Publish.
ReplyDeleteOf course I meant -ignores-.
I think Ukrainians have a good case to file a complaint if they miss out on pot 2 because of this. I'm just not sure if they are aware of it.
Delete