2018 FIFA World Cup AFC second round simulations (23 October 2015)

By request.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 22 October 2015. And assuming Kuwait manage to fix their issues in time for the November qualifier vs. Myanmar.

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format :


Winners + four best runners-up advance to the 3rd round of WCQ and 2019 AFC Asian Cup finals
The remaining runners-up + all 3rd placed teams + four best 4th placed teams advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.
The remaining 4th placed teams + all the 5th placed teams will go through 2 rounds of play-off matches to determine the final 8 teams to advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.

Most likely to be involved in the Asian Cup play-offs:

99.96% - Bhutan
99.70% - Cambodia
99.23% - India
99.16% - Yemen
98.88% - Bangladesh
98.77% - Laos
96.48% - Timor-Leste
87.06% - Chinese Taipei
86.02% - Myanmar
75.70% - Malaysia
70.83% - Afghanistan
58.69% - Maldives
22.66% - Tajikistan
4.56% - Kyrgyzstan
0.93% - Bahrain
0.85% - Guam
0.38% - Philippines
0.12% - Turkmenistan
0.02% - Palestine


Most likely to have a best 4th placed team:

99.80% - Group D
99.53% - Group H
73.90% - Group B
41.35% - Group C
29.47% - Group E
27.80% - Group A
15.21% - Group G
12.94% - Group F

Top 10 most likely to be among best 4th placed teams:

84.99% - Guam
66.51% - Tajikistan
51.68% - Bahrain
46.67% - Philippines
40.67% - Maldives
28.94% - Afghanistan
21.10% - Malaysia
14.25% - Turkmenistan
13.88% - Myanmar
12.48% - Chinese Taipei

Most likely to advance to the 3rd round of AFC Asian Cup qualification:

99.97% - Lebanon
99.81% - Turkmenistan
99.76% - Vietnam
99.39% - Philippines
99.15% - Guam
98.86% - Hong Kong
98.79% - Bahrain
98.03% - Singapore
96.48% - Palestine
95.40% - Kyrgyzstan
78.00% - Kuwait
77.34% - Tajikistan
63.99% - Oman
55.87% - China PR
41.85% - Korea DPR
41.37% - United Arab Emirates
41.31% - Maldives
39.07% - Syria
29.17% - Afghanistan
25.56% - Iraq
24.30% - Malaysia
17.17% - Uzbekistan
15.76% - Jordan
13.98% - Myanmar
12.94% - Chinese Taipei
9.39% - Iran
7.67% - Saudi Arabia
6.50% - Australia
3.52% - Timor-Leste
2.38% - Japan
2.25% - Thailand
1.23% - Laos
1.12% - Bangladesh
0.84% - Yemen
0.77% - India
0.48% - Qatar
0.30% - Cambodia
0.19% - Korea Republic
0.04% - Bhutan

Most likely to have a best 2nd placed team:

77.78% - Group B
72.43% - Group F
60.52% - Group E
54.46% - Group A
44.79% - Group C
41.49% - Group H
26.69% - Group D
21.84% - Group G

Top 10 most likely to be among best 2nd placed teams:

47.27% - Syria
45.20% - Jordan
39.60% - China PR
37.77% - Iraq
34.42% - Thailand
33.45% - United Arab Emirates
32.57% - Australia
22.18% - Uzbekistan
21.02% - Kuwait
20.91% - Oman

Most likely to advance to the next round of World Cup qualification:

99.81% - Korea Republic
99.52% - Qatar
97.75% - Thailand
97.62% - Japan
93.50% - Australia
92.33% - Saudi Arabia
90.61% - Iran
84.24% - Jordan
82.83% - Uzbekistan
74.44% - Iraq
60.93% - Syria
58.63% - United Arab Emirates
58.15% - Korea DPR
44.13% - China PR
36.01% - Oman
22.00% - Kuwait
3.50% - Palestine
1.97% - Singapore
1.14% - Hong Kong
0.28% - Bahrain
0.24% - Vietnam
0.23% - Philippines
0.07% - Turkmenistan
0.04% - Kyrgyzstan
0.03% - Lebanon

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.