Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.3 time frame (games played between 24 and 36 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.
It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.
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See the previous update.
Portugal, Chile and Austria replace Netherlands, France and Brazil in the list of seeds.
| 1 | Germany | 377 |
| 2 | Portugal | 366 |
| 3 | Argentina | 355 |
| 4 | Belgium | 351 |
| 5 | Chile | 332 |
| 6 | Colombia | 329 |
| 7 | Austria | 314 |
| 8 | Brazil | 305 |
| 9 | England | 301 |
| 9 | Spain | 301 |
| 11 | Wales | 291 |
| 12 | Romania | 282 |
| 13 | Netherlands | 275 |
| 14 | Switzerland | 268 |
| 15 | Uruguay | 256 |
| 16 | France | 251 |
| 17 | Slovakia | 241 |
| 18 | Croatia | 240 |
| 19 | Czech Republic | 230 |
| 20 | Côte d'Ivoire | 228 |
| 20 | Northern Ireland | 228 |
| 22 | Algeria | 227 |
| 23 | Iceland | 224 |
| 24 | Italy | 223 |
| 24 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 223 |
| 26 | Mexico | 219 |
| 27 | Turkey | 213 |
| 28 | Ghana | 208 |
| 29 | Senegal | 198 |
| 29 | Albania | 198 |
USA are 42nd.
Right now, the seeds for the 2018 World Cup would be: Russia, Germany, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia and Austria.
Edgar, are you sure?
ReplyDeleteNext update: October 2019...
Updated to 2016 :) Thanks!
DeleteA lot of the matches were played on 12 Oct 2015. Do these matches go into the 0.3 or 0.5 timeframe?
ReplyDelete0.5 timeframe.
DeleteHm, in my tables I got the same numbers as you, except for the teams that played matches on 12 Oct 2015: England, Spain, Slovakia, Switzerland, Austria.
DeleteWhen I add up the 0.2 and 0.3 timeframes for these teams, I get:
Spain 276,
Switzerland 258,
Austria 322,
Slovakia 248,
England 302.
Could you please write your weighted averages for 0.2 and 0.3 timeframe for at least one of these 5 countries, so I can find out where is my mistake?
I found out how you got your numbers. These five teams played matches both on 12 Oct 2014 and 12 Oct 2015. The former match you put into the 0.2 timeframe, and the latter into the 0.3 timeframe, the opposite of what you said. Is that correct?
Delete*exception from the above is Switzerland who did not play a match on 12 Oct 2014, but played on 12 Oct 2015.
DeleteSorry nogomet, I thought you meant 13 October. As long as you got the same numbers, it must be correct.
DeleteSo just to be clear, what are the corresponding dates for each timeframe? According to your numbers, it should be something like this:
Delete13 Oct 2016 - 10 Oct 2017 --> 1.0 timeframe
13 Oct 2015 - 12 Oct 2016 --> 0.5 timeframe
13 Oct 2014 - 12 Oct 2015 --> 0.3 timeframe
12 Oct 2013 - 12 Oct 2014 --> 0.2 timeframe
The last matches of qualifiers will be played on 10 Oct 2017, only two days before the new FIFA ranking is published.
Actually, looking at my code, each windows is 365 days long going back from the release date, with the exception of the 0.1 time frame - 366 days long.
DeleteSo, what are the correct dates then?
Delete0.2 starts on 2013-10-12
Delete0.3 starts on 2014-10-13
0.5 starts on 2015-10-13
1.0 starts on 2016-10-12
Thanks. Not a very intuitive approach FIFA uses there.
DeleteI still don't understand how these timeframes are calculated... why 365 or 366?
ReplyDeleteThat's simply how it is, Jeroen. Just let go of flimsy concepts like logic and go with the FIFA flow :)
Deleteok, but how can you predict it? I don't see any logic, hasn't got anything to do with leap years...
DeleteWhat's to predict? The oldest one is always 366. All the others 365. Not logical, but it's always the same. I got this explanation from FIFA long time ago.
Deleteah, ok :). I thought the 0.1 timeframe is 366 days by accident, not by default :).
Deletehey Ed
ReplyDeleteExample, FIFA published December FIFA ranking in 19/12/2014 and 5/12/2015
so the newest one is from 19/12/2014 to 5/12/2015 or 6/12/2014 to 5/12/2015 ???
The time frames are determined only by the current release date.
Deleteok Ed
Deletenow I know why there's problem when I calculate my NT points
tks so much :D
Are the title holders always seeded in the final tournament? For instance, if Germany qualifies for the WC, but ends below 7th place in October 2017 rankings, will they be seeded?
ReplyDeleteSee http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/Regulations/01/87/54/21/1875421_DOWNLOAD.pdf (art. 31.2 and 41.2). Basically: FIFA can change everything last minute,according to "sportive and geographical" reasons.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the problem ever occured, but i'd doubt if Germany would be below top 7, they'd be seeded. Not because of sportive criteria, but because CONMEBOL and other non-UEFA bobo's wouldn't agree to lose a seed to UEFA.
So there's no article saying that the title holder is seeded. They can do whatever they want. Ludicrous.
DeleteGiven that we have another Copa America next year, I think it's a given that we'll have 4 CONMEBOL + 3 UEFA + Russia as seeded teams in the WC 2018.
It seems like FIFA might have new draw methods. At the Olympic draw as well as for the forthcoming U17 Women's World Cup draw, there were no regional pots as all pots were based on the ranking. Hopefully, this is a sign for what we can expect for the 2018 World Cup draw. It would be much fairer than the current system.
ReplyDeleteAt both draws, the ranking system has been performances at the last four tournaments. Hopefully, that's just because there is no normal ranking for youth tournaments like that. Even the FIFA ranking would probably be better than doing that for 2018. The best would ofc be a reformed FIFA ranking with less emphasis on the most recent year or a system like ELO
The U17 Women's World Cup draw post here:
DeletePot 1
Jordan
Japan
Germany
Korea DPR
Pot 2
Nigeria
Spain
Venezuela
Ghana
Pot 3
Canada
USA
Mexico
Brazil
Pot 4
New Zealand
England
Paraguay
Camerooon
http://www.fifa.com/u17womensworldcup/news/y=2016/m=5/news=jordan-2016-draw-to-be-streamed-live-2792788.html?intcmp=fifacom_hp_module_news
That would be great, but I'm not getting my hopes up :)
Delete